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#1
08-02-2025, 09:26 PM
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Swing and a miss with both picks. I was able to cash some tickets today thanks to Deterministic. I didn’t even bet a trifecta that race but holy cow — it paid $330 for Deterministic-Intellect-Win For The Money, who in my opinion all made sense.
Good call on Intellect, by the way. $168.00 wagered $270.40 returned For Sunday. Race 3. #8 Hero’s Medal, 8/1. This is purely a pace play as I fully expect the pace to get hot and I want a late runner. Obviously the other Kantarmaci horse makes some sense too but this one should be a bigger price and he has races from last year that would win this and even his recent races haven’t been too bad so hoping the pace develops and Dylan can run them down in the stretch. Race 7. #5 Doroteo, 10/1. There are a lot of big names in this race so this horse who broke its maiden at Indy and trained by Jose Camejo will get overlooked. Camejo doesn’t send horses to Saratoga too often so I’ve got to think he likes this one. The pace here will also be very fast with multiple horses who like to run up front. Doroteo ran into some pretty good horses in prior starts, including Hypnus and Clever Again. And you’ve got to wonder if he even wanted to go two turns. His debut was trial by fire as he got dropped right into a stakes race and was good enough to run 2nd there. The connections obviously think highly of him. He was great last out, rating well inside and behind the speed, then cut the corner at the top of the stretch and was gone. He’ll likely have to navigate more traffic this time but he should get the pace setup, if he’s good enough. 
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#2
08-03-2025, 10:00 AM
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Vinsanity had nothing.
Come Full Circle was very sharp paying $17.40/11.80 I thought Capitol Hill was well positioned, very surprised he didn't come with his run, but that's horse racing I guess. Intellect continues to not be able to time up the run correctly in my opinion, although credit to Deterministic who was really good...got up for second at a surprisingly big number and paid $8.70 to place. Wagered: $168.00 Returned: $218.10 8/3/25 Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Jhirsch 8/1 - Liked the return effort to set up for today's run and hope/expect more of a stalking trip in here. Should be value for these connections in a race that I think he's the only one outside of the logical top four choices in here with much of a chance. Best Value: Race 6 #5 Any Port 12/1 - Hoping for a big day from the 5 post, second off the layoff horses with Lezcano aboard apparently. Liked the return effort quite a bit. Never really got close to Vino Rouge but I think Lezcano was just taking her for a spin...probably ran better than I would've expected and I think a step forward is likely today. If Vino Rouge regresses, and I think that is somewhat likely, I think this field lacks anyone scary outside of Louise Procter, who I believe will be way overbet in here (not saying she can't win)...
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#3
08-03-2025, 11:04 AM
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I’m going to look to Race 6 and pick #4 Can’t Fool Me, 15/1. ML favorite #6 Vino Rouge is the horse to beat and he should get a good pace scenario but he’s actually never won a turf race (though he did finish 1st and was DQed.) #3 Louise Procter was the only horse to make up significant ground in her U.S. debut but not sure she gets much pace to run at here. #1 Collaboration could move up under Irad but Linda Rice doesn’t have good turf numbers. The horse I think has the best chance to win is #8 Celtic Charm who was wide throughout last race coming off a long layoff. She now cuts back a bit and I’d expect will move forward here. But I want to take a swing on #4 Can’t Fool Me who gets the jockey changed to Rosario. Can’t Fool Me just never looked comfortable last out and might jive more with Rosario than Santana or Franco. She has struggled outside of the State bred races but I’m hoping the jockey change will be enough to turn the tables. I’ll be using exclusively 4&8 in multis and will probably bet a staggered trifecta centered around the 4 and 8.
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#5
08-03-2025, 06:57 PM
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I’ve looked at the Wednesday card and don’t really love it. I don’t want to spend much time on it.
Wednesday. Race 1. #2 Castle Island, 4/1. Decent chance he wires, though wish Jose Ortiz was still aboard. Race 8. #8 Notable Exchange, 12/1. This one has been looking for a pace to run into and should get it here. Thursday. Race 7. #2 Regalton, 8/1. It seems like George Weaver has been dominating the turf sprints at Saratoga. That’s probably because he has been, winning at a 40% clip in turf sprints this meet. The numbers are even better when you consider that 2 of his 9 starting non-winners ran 2nd and 4th to Governor Sam in the Quick Call. Similarly, he also has Silsbee and Laurice listed here. I think ML favorite Love Cervere is a very nice horse but question if she wants 5.5 furlongs as opposed to a little longer. Race 9. #4 Maui Strong, 7/2. I’ve really liked this horse for a long time and now Irad hops aboard, making me question if there is any way we actually get 7/2 on him. I think he should be the heavy favorite so I’d love got get him at 7/2. Doesn’t look like a ton of pace signed on and he’s got a major class edge over these horses. Last edited by moses : 08-05-2025 at 12:19 PM.
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#6
08-06-2025, 10:18 AM
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#7
08-06-2025, 01:47 PM
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Best bet Race 8 #2 Duboff 6/1
Best value Race 6 #7 Imminent Risk 6/1
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#8
08-06-2025, 05:32 PM
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Castle Island was terrible.
Notable Exchange was the first of the closers to make a move and looked like mayyybe a winner but got run down by Chad/Prat and held on for second. Paid $8.10 to place. $184.00 wagered $278.50 returned
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#9
08-07-2025, 11:56 AM
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Race 4. #5 Freedom Speaks, 12/1. Miguel Clement and Jena Antonucci both send out nice horses and Joe Sharp and Bill Mott send out two each in this race. So how did I end up on Heather Smullen’s mare? Well, this race doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of speed and Freedom Speaks adds Johnny V and stretches out from sprint races. I watched all of her sprints and she had some speed but she just never looked fast enough in any of her recent starts. She’s got a few figures that make her competitive here and I’d guess a pace advantage as I would expect Johnny V to send and all he’s really got to beat to the lead is Do Gooder and I don’t think Do Gooder is very fast. Her best race came at 6.5 furlongs at Kentucky Downs and she looked pretty good in her only race at a mile at Keeneland. Bullet workout last out. She’s also listed in the Ballaston Spa (ha!) and that was an overly ambitious placement but maybe an indication that she’s working really well right now. I suspect Vive Veuve will be overbet based on the last out win against Proctor Street (who is a very nice horse) but outside of that race, none of her races really put her above the rest here. There’s a decent chance Freedom Speaks simply isn’t good enough but I think she’ll be even higher than that 12/1 morning line so I’ll take a shot on what looks like a major jockey upgrade and pace advantage.
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#10
08-07-2025, 03:24 PM
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Best Bet: Race 9 #5 Insubordination 8/1 - like on the stretch back putt today
Best Value: Race 10 #7 SoHo Nights 8/1 - seems as likely as any in here to me if the surface switch takes and should be a solid price with some of the other connections in here
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#11
08-07-2025, 06:58 PM
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Ugh. What a miserable day. Freedom Speaks isn’t a sprinter or a router. She’s just not very good. Regalton ran OK but darn — I almost landed on the winner, also trained by George Weaver. Had him in my multis but couldn’t connect on some of the other legs.
$192.00 wagered $278.50 returned I’ve got a few thoughts about tomorrow but going to look at the card a bit more.
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