Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

If Speed horse means on the lead at first call here are his YTD stats

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|    Track    |    Surface    |    Races    |    Win    |    Place    |    Show     |    Out    |
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| BEL         | Fast Dirt     |          12 |         2 |           1 |           1 |         8 |
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| BEL         | Turf          |          11 |         5 |           1 |           1 |         4 |
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| BEL         | Wet Dirt      |           1 |         0 |           0 |           1 |         0 |
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| CD          | Fast Dirt     |           3 |         1 |           2 |           0 |         0 |
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| FL          | Fast Dirt     |           2 |         1 |           0 |           0 |         1 |
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| GP          | Fast Dirt     |          11 |         4 |           1 |           1 |         5 |
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| GP          | Turf          |          11 |         5 |           3 |           0 |         3 |
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| GP          | Artificial    |          14 |         7 |           2 |           0 |         5 |
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| IND         | Turf          |           1 |         1 |           0 |           0 |         0 |
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| KEE         | Fast Dirt     |           8 |         0 |           4 |           1 |         3 |
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| KEE         | Turf          |           8 |         4 |           3 |           1 |         0 |
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| KEE         | Wet Dirt      |           1 |         1 |           0 |           0 |         0 |
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| PIM         | Fast Dirt     |           1 |         1 |           0 |           0 |         0 |
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| SAR         | Fast Dirt     |          12 |         5 |           2 |           1 |         4 |
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| SAR         | Turf          |           8 |         2 |           2 |           1 |         3 |
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| SAR         | Wet Dirt      |           3 |         2 |           1 |           0 |         0 |
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All other Jocks

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|    Track    |    Surface    |    Races    |    Win    |    Place    |    Show     |    Out    |
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| SAR         | Fast Dirt     |         128 |        21 |          21 |          19 |        67 |
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| SAR         | Turf          |          77 |        15 |          10 |          13 |        39 |
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| SAR         | Wet Dirt      |          25 |         9 |           3 |           7 |         6 |
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Thanks for that. Maybe my perception is off then.

[moses]

$216.00 wagered
$210.20 returned

Alabama Day picks. Going all out for Brown/Klaravich.

Race 7 - #4 Tax Implicatons, 5/1
Race 9 - #8 Randomized, 9/2

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

$216.00 wagered
$210.20 returned

Alabama Day picks. Going all out for Brown/Klaravich.

Race 7 - #4 Tax Implicatons, 5/1
Race 9 - #8 Randomized, 9/2

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Thanks.

I can’t believe she went off 7/1.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$216.00 wagered
$210.20 returned

Alabama Day picks. Going all out for Brown/Klaravich.

Race 7 - #4 Tax Implicatons, 5/1
Race 9 - #8 Randomized, 9/2

Randomized with a big win in the Alabama after Tax Implications was bet down but could not catch them. Brown/Rosario on Randomized combined for $22.40 back. And I’m back in the green.

$224.00 wagered
$232.60 returned

[theguarantee]

Nice pick and glad to see you back in the black Moses - that was some price on Randomized.

I butchered the late pick 5 getting way too aggressive with Tax Implications

[theguarantee]

Not a pick for this obviously but I love Impact Warrior tonight in the Del Mar Oaks for what its worth. I do think Anisette is legit but going to take a big swing if getting 5/2 or better

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Not a pick for this obviously but I love Impact Warrior tonight in the Del Mar Oaks for what its worth. I do think Anisette is legit but going to take a big swing if getting 5/2 or better

I’m interested in Be Your Best. She was on the same part of the course as Aspray in the Belmont Oaks when the rail was so strong,

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Nice pick and glad to see you back in the black Moses - that was some price on Randomized.

I butchered the late pick 5 getting way too aggressive with Tax Implications

Thanks. Hopefully can stay there. That was a tough race but I was surprised Tax Implications didn’t finish better.

Sunday picks.

First bet: Race 4 - #5 She’s Fire, 4/1
Second bet: Race 7 - #4 Mount Up, 8/1

[theguarantee]

224.00
250.70

Best Bet: Race 4 - #2 Crown Imperial 7/2 - Really like this one today based on the common race three of the main contenders come out of from Monmouth. Get the sense that most are gravitating to the winner/third place finishers from there but I think the head on is very telling if you take the time to watch it closely. This one took a solid bump coming on the gate then was stymied in traffic on the turn before taking a couple serious bumps and was basically turned sideways/lost all momentum. Still was making up ground in the stretch and I think turns the tables today.

Best Value: Race 8 - #1 Shaky Pants 20/1 - Taking a bit of a stab on a horse that will have to improve leaps and bounds today. Its easy to dismiss this one off the low fig on debut but that was back in September as a two year old. Now gets Lasix and reportedly was gelded since. Additionally the trip on debut was brutal in my eyes. Broke slow and then made a premature move into contention before flattening badly late. They paid a decent amount for this son of Bee Jersey which should indicate some talent. His works have really picked up since the return to training and I'm not sure there are any killers in here.

Bonus - Not an official play and I ultimately decided she's probably in too tough today but I'm a little interested in Causeways Jewel in the 6th today. This one is a full to Emmanuel and stayed on a touch longer Ina decent pace on the dirt on debut. Could see where based on the breeding you'd liked to have seen a little more running but it sure looked like JV decided to turn it into a spin around the track. The fact that he's back aboard today, with some speed, intrigues me at what should be a big price.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Randomized with a big win in the Alabama after Tax Implications was bet down but could not catch them. Brown/Rosario on Randomized combined for $22.40 back. And I’m back in the green.

$224.00 wagered
$232.60 returned

Mount Up won, paying $13.70 for WP.

$232.00 wagered
$246.30 returned

[moses]

Wednesday picks.

I'm hoping that the turf races get to go on Wednesday.

First bet: Race 3 - #2 Coppola 10/1. Yes, I'm burning more money on this horse. I still think he's pretty talented and was impressed with his race last time out against some pretty strong competition for an allowance race. I think this field is a little bit softer than the one from last time and he may find himself setting a slightly easier pace than last time out...IF he even goes to the front. There's at least a possibility that he may try to sit back in 2nd or 3rd early on. That's what he did in his lone turf win at Churchill. It remains to be seen...but I do think he's got some talent and definitely think he's worth a shot at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 2 - #7 Unflappable Max 6/1. I'm expecting a fast pace in this race and will be looking for this Finger Lakes invader to be coming late. Anthony Ferraro gets Irad to take the mount and he should hopefully be able to work out a trip from a little bit off the pace. The workouts tell me that he's in good shape. I like the other Finger Lakes horses in here as well...and am simply against the heavy favorite Perfect Munnings who drops from stakes races to the claiming ranks after 8 months off and a switch from Pletcher to Rice. I've just got no interest in that horse at a short price.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Wednesday picks.

I'm hoping that the turf races get to go on Wednesday.

First bet: Race 3 - #2 Coppola 10/1. Yes, I'm burning more money on this horse. I still think he's pretty talented and was impressed with his race last time out against some pretty strong competition for an allowance race. I think this field is a little bit softer than the one from last time and he may find himself setting a slightly easier pace than last time out...IF he even goes to the front. There's at least a possibility that he may try to sit back in 2nd or 3rd early on. That's what he did in his lone turf win at Churchill. It remains to be seen...but I do think he's got some talent and definitely think he's worth a shot at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 2 - #7 Unflappable Max 6/1. I'm expecting a fast pace in this race and will be looking for this Finger Lakes invader to be coming late. Anthony Ferraro gets Irad to take the mount and he should hopefully be able to work out a trip from a little bit off the pace. The workouts tell me that he's in good shape. I like the other Finger Lakes horses in here as well...and am simply against the heavy favorite Perfect Munnings who drops from stakes races to the claiming ranks after 8 months off and a switch from Pletcher to Rice. I've just got no interest in that horse at a short price.

Changing my 2nd bet to Race 5 - #7 Charge Nurse 8/1. I just think with irad aboard, Unflappable Max will be overbet. Charge Nurse looks to set the pace and I’m not sure there will be much pressure.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Changing my 2nd bet to Race 5 - #7 Charge Nurse 8/1. I just think with irad aboard, Unflappable Max will be overbet. Charge Nurse looks to set the pace and I’m not sure there will be much pressure.

Charge Nurse scrtched so put me back on Unflappable Max in the 2nd.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Mount Up won, paying $13.70 for WP.

$232.00 wagered
$246.30 returned

Coppola almost won but ran a solid 2nd, paying $12.80 to place. My other pick had no chance.

$240.00 wagered
$259.10 returned

[theguarantee]

^Nice pick with Coppola, thought you were going to get home.

Wagered: $240.00
Returned: $260.40

Dixie Pharoah was dreadful. Sy Dog ran OK I guess but Tawny Port was an hour the best. He paid $4.00 to place.

[moses]

Thanks theguarantee. I thought he was gonna hold him off. But still ran very well.

Thursday picks.

I’m hoping these races can stay on the turf because there are some nice fields today.

First bet: Race 3 - #4 Main Event 6/1. I think this horse had everything against him last time out. Off nearly a year layoff in 4YO debut and had the pace pressed a bit by eventual winner Jerry the Nipper. Granted, Kuramata (Brown), Unanimous Consent (Brown), and Grand Sonata (Pletcher) were all off similar layoffs but those barns tend to perform better off the long layoff than Weaver. I expect him to be in better shape this time around and I don’t really see any horse challenging him on the front end as I think Safe Conduct is too slow to really provide much pressure. Looking to wire them at 6/1 (or maybe better as I expect Easter and Kuramata to really get hammered at the tote.)

Second bet: Race 6 - #9 Fauci 8/1. I’ve always thought this horse was a bit overrated but he’s certainly talented, finishing in the money in 14 of 18 career starts (only 2 wins) and 5 ITM finishes in 5 career starts at Saratoga (though no wins). I don’t love the post position but he’s now got Prat aboard and I’ll trust Prat to put him in good position to close into what should be a pretty honest pace. At 8/1, I think he’s worth taking a chance on. He’s been 8/1 or higher in 4 of his last 10 starts, finishing 2nd once (by a neck) and 3rd thrice (missing first or second by 3/4 lengths in each of those). Point being, he should be competitive here, should get a favorable pace scenario, should improve in 2nd off layoff, gets a jockey upgrade, and should be a nice price. I’m giving him another shot (no pun intended.)

[jms62]

Rosario is KILLING me this meet

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Thanks theguarantee. I thought he was gonna hold him off. But still ran very well.

Thursday picks.

I’m hoping these races can stay on the turf because there are some nice fields today.

First bet: Race 3 - #4 Main Event 6/1. I think this horse had everything against him last time out. Off nearly a year layoff in 4YO debut and had the pace pressed a bit by eventual winner Jerry the Nipper. Granted, Kuramata (Brown), Unanimous Consent (Brown), and Grand Sonata (Pletcher) were all off similar layoffs but those barns tend to perform better off the long layoff than Weaver. I expect him to be in better shape this time around and I don’t really see any horse challenging him on the front end as I think Safe Conduct is too slow to really provide much pressure. Looking to wire them at 6/1 (or maybe better as I expect Easter and Kuramata to really get hammered at the tote.)

Second bet: Race 6 - #9 Fauci 8/1. I’ve always thought this horse was a bit overrated but he’s certainly talented, finishing in the money in 14 of 18 career starts (only 2 wins) and 5 ITM finishes in 5 career starts at Saratoga (though no wins). I don’t love the post position but he’s now got Prat aboard and I’ll trust Prat to put him in good position to close into what should be a pretty honest pace. At 8/1, I think he’s worth taking a chance on. He’s been 8/1 or higher in 4 of his last 10 starts, finishing 2nd once (by a neck) and 3rd thrice (missing first or second by 3/4 lengths in each of those). Point being, he should be competitive here, should get a favorable pace scenario, should improve in 2nd off layoff, gets a jockey upgrade, and should be a nice price. I’m giving him another shot (no pun intended.)

Fauci ran well, finishing 2nd but couldn’t run the winner down. Main Event is out of excuses. He’s just not as good as I thought.

$248.00 wagered
$263.70 returned

Friday picks.

First bet: Race 9 - #6 Clairiere 5/2. With the addition of some forwardly placed horses, I don’t think Nest will get as easy of a trip this time out. I love Clairiere here and don’t mind taking a short price on her.

Second bet: Race 8 - #7 Modern Love 12/1. I had originally handicapped this card with the assumption that all turf races would be off. This one stays on and I want to take a shot on Modern Love. They’ve tried to get her on turf a few times to no avail. Has a turf pedigree. Not really impressed with any of the likely favorites in here and she should be a good price.