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#1
08-19-2023, 05:52 PM
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$224.00 wagered $232.60 returned 
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#2
08-19-2023, 06:01 PM
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Nice pick and glad to see you back in the black Moses - that was some price on Randomized.
I butchered the late pick 5 getting way too aggressive with Tax Implications 
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#3
08-19-2023, 06:03 PM
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Not a pick for this obviously but I love Impact Warrior tonight in the Del Mar Oaks for what its worth. I do think Anisette is legit but going to take a big swing if getting 5/2 or better
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#4
08-19-2023, 07:41 PM
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#5
08-20-2023, 06:33 AM
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Sunday picks. First bet: Race 4 - #5 She’s Fire, 4/1 Second bet: Race 7 - #4 Mount Up, 8/1
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#6
08-20-2023, 11:25 AM
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224.00
250.70 Best Bet: Race 4 - #2 Crown Imperial 7/2 - Really like this one today based on the common race three of the main contenders come out of from Monmouth. Get the sense that most are gravitating to the winner/third place finishers from there but I think the head on is very telling if you take the time to watch it closely. This one took a solid bump coming on the gate then was stymied in traffic on the turn before taking a couple serious bumps and was basically turned sideways/lost all momentum. Still was making up ground in the stretch and I think turns the tables today. Best Value: Race 8 - #1 Shaky Pants 20/1 - Taking a bit of a stab on a horse that will have to improve leaps and bounds today. Its easy to dismiss this one off the low fig on debut but that was back in September as a two year old. Now gets Lasix and reportedly was gelded since. Additionally the trip on debut was brutal in my eyes. Broke slow and then made a premature move into contention before flattening badly late. They paid a decent amount for this son of Bee Jersey which should indicate some talent. His works have really picked up since the return to training and I'm not sure there are any killers in here. Bonus - Not an official play and I ultimately decided she's probably in too tough today but I'm a little interested in Causeways Jewel in the 6th today. This one is a full to Emmanuel and stayed on a touch longer Ina decent pace on the dirt on debut. Could see where based on the breeding you'd liked to have seen a little more running but it sure looked like JV decided to turn it into a spin around the track. The fact that he's back aboard today, with some speed, intrigues me at what should be a big price.
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#7
08-21-2023, 05:53 PM
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$232.00 wagered $246.30 returned
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#8
08-21-2023, 10:12 PM
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Wednesday picks.
I'm hoping that the turf races get to go on Wednesday. First bet: Race 3 - #2 Coppola 10/1. Yes, I'm burning more money on this horse. I still think he's pretty talented and was impressed with his race last time out against some pretty strong competition for an allowance race. I think this field is a little bit softer than the one from last time and he may find himself setting a slightly easier pace than last time out...IF he even goes to the front. There's at least a possibility that he may try to sit back in 2nd or 3rd early on. That's what he did in his lone turf win at Churchill. It remains to be seen...but I do think he's got some talent and definitely think he's worth a shot at 10/1. Second bet: Race 2 - #7 Unflappable Max 6/1. I'm expecting a fast pace in this race and will be looking for this Finger Lakes invader to be coming late. Anthony Ferraro gets Irad to take the mount and he should hopefully be able to work out a trip from a little bit off the pace. The workouts tell me that he's in good shape. I like the other Finger Lakes horses in here as well...and am simply against the heavy favorite Perfect Munnings who drops from stakes races to the claiming ranks after 8 months off and a switch from Pletcher to Rice. I've just got no interest in that horse at a short price.
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#9
08-22-2023, 06:51 PM
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#10
08-23-2023, 12:21 PM
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#11
08-23-2023, 12:50 PM
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Wagered: $232.00
Returned: $256.40 Shaky Pants was nowhere. Crown Imperial was a very generous 8/1 but couldn't quite hold off Amidst Waves despite a perfect trip and paid $5.70 to place. 8/23: Best Bet: Race 7 - #8 Sy Dog 5/1 - Always had a thing for this one and certainly is bred to get a route of ground. His four year old season has been a real disappointment but I want to give him one more chance here on the stretch out that he can show the kind of upside I've long believed he possesses. Best Value: Race 6 - #5 Dixie Pharoah 8/1 - Bred to stretch out and Handal typically improves them second time out. Feels like his barn is starting to wake up and I trust Dylan to have this one in the right spot to spring an upset if that hoped improvement occurs today.
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#12
08-23-2023, 08:56 PM
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$240.00 wagered $259.10 returned
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#13
08-24-2023, 08:41 AM
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^Nice pick with Coppola, thought you were going to get home.
Wagered: $240.00 Returned: $260.40 Dixie Pharoah was dreadful. Sy Dog ran OK I guess but Tawny Port was an hour the best. He paid $4.00 to place.
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#14
08-24-2023, 08:50 AM
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Thanks theguarantee. I thought he was gonna hold him off. But still ran very well.
Thursday picks. I’m hoping these races can stay on the turf because there are some nice fields today. First bet: Race 3 - #4 Main Event 6/1. I think this horse had everything against him last time out. Off nearly a year layoff in 4YO debut and had the pace pressed a bit by eventual winner Jerry the Nipper. Granted, Kuramata (Brown), Unanimous Consent (Brown), and Grand Sonata (Pletcher) were all off similar layoffs but those barns tend to perform better off the long layoff than Weaver. I expect him to be in better shape this time around and I don’t really see any horse challenging him on the front end as I think Safe Conduct is too slow to really provide much pressure. Looking to wire them at 6/1 (or maybe better as I expect Easter and Kuramata to really get hammered at the tote.) Second bet: Race 6 - #9 Fauci 8/1. I’ve always thought this horse was a bit overrated but he’s certainly talented, finishing in the money in 14 of 18 career starts (only 2 wins) and 5 ITM finishes in 5 career starts at Saratoga (though no wins). I don’t love the post position but he’s now got Prat aboard and I’ll trust Prat to put him in good position to close into what should be a pretty honest pace. At 8/1, I think he’s worth taking a chance on. He’s been 8/1 or higher in 4 of his last 10 starts, finishing 2nd once (by a neck) and 3rd thrice (missing first or second by 3/4 lengths in each of those). Point being, he should be competitive here, should get a favorable pace scenario, should improve in 2nd off layoff, gets a jockey upgrade, and should be a nice price. I’m giving him another shot (no pun intended.)
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#16
08-24-2023, 01:19 PM
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Best Bet: Race 4 #4 Anthracite 5/1 - Interesting connections bring him up today and think just needs to get back to the race two back and show speed to be a factor in here today.
Best Value: Race 9 #1 Jumbly 6/1 - Not that I don't think this field is pretty good but I do think its ripe for a new face. Not sure how good Jumbly really is but I don't think the Euro form is far off the better runners in here and she figures to be the best price of the ones I think can win in here today. I also don't mind the idea of taking a Euro runner on the course despite the decent weather the past few days.
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#18
08-24-2023, 03:28 PM
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$248.00 wagered $263.70 returned Friday picks. First bet: Race 9 - #6 Clairiere 5/2. With the addition of some forwardly placed horses, I don’t think Nest will get as easy of a trip this time out. I love Clairiere here and don’t mind taking a short price on her. Second bet: Race 8 - #7 Modern Love 12/1. I had originally handicapped this card with the assumption that all turf races would be off. This one stays on and I want to take a shot on Modern Love. They’ve tried to get her on turf a few times to no avail. Has a turf pedigree. Not really impressed with any of the likely favorites in here and she should be a good price. Last edited by moses : 08-25-2023 at 10:19 AM.
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#19
08-25-2023, 01:18 PM
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Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Secret Oath 8/1 - The way I see the race unfolding I expect at least an honest pace with Idiomatic and Nest knocking heads a bit. I don't expect it to be that fast but honest enough. Looking through the rest of the field I think Secret Oath is the only alternative who's best punch gives her much of a chance. Hoping she makes first run and gets by those two and then will just be begging for the wire. It wasn't that long ago that she nearly held off Clariere in the Apple Blossom and while I don't think Tyler stopped riding or did anything wrong I got the sense that he thought she had the race won. I imagine that would not be the case if she makes the front today.
Best Value: Race 8 - #8 Lullaby Land 8/1 - If you think Anatolian is the horse to beat in here, and I do, I think you want to give a long look to this runner. When they met three back she was grabbed right away to get way behind a very slow pace going todays distance. I know she doesn't possess any early speed but I thought that was a bit excessive. She then made a huge middle move while Anatolian just sat a perfect pocket trip, let her pass and then finished up a bit better. Maybe that one is just really improving for Mike Maker but I think at the expected odds its worth a shot. I also think its a good sign Jose is back aboard today.
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#20
08-25-2023, 02:30 PM
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Posting Saturday picks as well. Race 10 - #2 Matareya 6/1. Race 12 - #2 Arcangelo 5/2.
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Hybrid Mode
