Two at Toga (2023)

[moses]

Thanks theguarantee. I thought he was gonna hold him off. But still ran very well.

Thursday picks.

I’m hoping these races can stay on the turf because there are some nice fields today.

First bet: Race 3 - #4 Main Event 6/1. I think this horse had everything against him last time out. Off nearly a year layoff in 4YO debut and had the pace pressed a bit by eventual winner Jerry the Nipper. Granted, Kuramata (Brown), Unanimous Consent (Brown), and Grand Sonata (Pletcher) were all off similar layoffs but those barns tend to perform better off the long layoff than Weaver. I expect him to be in better shape this time around and I don’t really see any horse challenging him on the front end as I think Safe Conduct is too slow to really provide much pressure. Looking to wire them at 6/1 (or maybe better as I expect Easter and Kuramata to really get hammered at the tote.)

Second bet: Race 6 - #9 Fauci 8/1. I’ve always thought this horse was a bit overrated but he’s certainly talented, finishing in the money in 14 of 18 career starts (only 2 wins) and 5 ITM finishes in 5 career starts at Saratoga (though no wins). I don’t love the post position but he’s now got Prat aboard and I’ll trust Prat to put him in good position to close into what should be a pretty honest pace. At 8/1, I think he’s worth taking a chance on. He’s been 8/1 or higher in 4 of his last 10 starts, finishing 2nd once (by a neck) and 3rd thrice (missing first or second by 3/4 lengths in each of those). Point being, he should be competitive here, should get a favorable pace scenario, should improve in 2nd off layoff, gets a jockey upgrade, and should be a nice price. I’m giving him another shot (no pun intended.)