Two at Toga (2023)

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 4 #2 Liberty Flame 8/1 - Think this one is every bit as likely a winner as the rest in here and believe the public will be gravitating to several others so should get a square price today.

Bet Value: Race 9 #8 Channel Maker 20/1 - Always like Channel Maker when there is some cut in the ground. Clearly you can cut that morning line ~in half with the conditions and Strong Quality scratching. I was interested in trying to get Strong Quality to wire this group so easy pivot to Channel Maker for me in here today.

Good luck.

Another great call. Impressive

[theguarantee]

^Thanks guys. It’s been a nice Spa ‘23 for me so far. Up pretty good on the meet even if frustrated feeling like I should be up more. Hopefully can keep it rolling into August.

[moses]

Good call!

Wednesday picks.

Race 7 - #3 Portos, 10/1
Race 9 - #5 Sarah Harper, 6/1

[theguarantee]

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

Good luck. I circled back to Runaway Rumour a few times. She’s above 20/1. I’m putting a few bucks on Regal Realm but wouldn’t be surprised to see Runaway Rumour run well either.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

I bow to your greatness. Educate me. What did I miss with Fulgini>

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Bet: Race 10 - #2 Fulgini 12/1
Best Value: Race 8 - #7Runaway Rumour

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I bow to your greatness. Educate me. What did I miss with Fulgini>

Great job with Fuligni!

(Agree Hossy. Seemed like a filly that was distinctly better on turf..)

[theguarantee]

^thanks guys. I wish I could tell you it was some great piece of handicapping dahoss but it was mainly a stab. Fuligni has been a bit of a pet of mine and while Steve is right that on figs she certainly looked like a better turfer I thought she had some excuses, subtle and weird trips on dirt and just looked like a field that was crying out for a price to me. I always give Bonds horses a second and third look at the Spa and I liked having Rosario up at what would be a square price. She sat an absolutely perfect trip and it was nice it worked out.

Have to update my records but probably won’t get to it until Saturday as I’m away again.

Best Bet: Race 9 - #3 Amazing Grace 5/1 - I loved her Euro form and thought she was tons the best in the NA debut. Had high hopes and she’s disappointed the last two but the first is excusable at slightly shorter behind a slow pace. I don’t think she wants 2 miles as she possesses a really nice turn of foot. I think she’s at her best going 1.5 and she’ll get that today. Not sure she’s good enough to beat War Like if she fires an A race and a little worried about the pace but we should get a square price and want to give her one more shot to prove she’s as good as I think.

Best Value: Race 1 - #10 A Knights Courage 15/1 - Although I think is probably bred more for synth than turf I’ve liked the of this colt and was waiting for Donk to switch surfaces. The horses has absolutely detested the kickback on dirt in my opinion. Not sure he’s quite good enough but can’t pass on a big price today.

Good luck.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Good call!

Wednesday picks.

Race 7 - #3 Portos, 10/1
Race 9 - #5 Sarah Harper, 6/1

Porto’s paid $5.30 to place. I didn’t see Race 9 but Sarah Harper did not finish very high.

$120.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

Hoping to get back into the green.

First bet: Race 6 - #4 Destiny Star, 4/1. The works on this horse have been phenomenal. Half sibling Kentucky Kiss broke maiden on the turf. I don’t love taking a short price in a 2YO race but Johnny V is aboard here and have confidence this one will be given a fair shot. Maybe she gets overlooked since Hamm is her trainer?

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Virginia Joy, 8/1. How many times has Chad Brown won a graded stakes race on turf for us all to say, “Of course, Chad Brown. How’d I miss that one?” I don’t love the pace scenario for the huge favorite War Like Goddess. She is obviously the class of this field…but she’s a late runner who may get no pace to run at. While likely front runners Elegant Taste and Vergara offer some appeal (the latter, much more so), I don’t think either of them are good enough to win this. She gets a massive jockey upgrade. Her last two races had Dylan Davis and Manny Franco aboard but she will have Prat aboard here. I think she’ll get a better trip this time around as the stalker right behind the two mentioned above and should get first run at them.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Porto’s paid $5.30 to place. I didn’t see Race 9 but Sarah Harper did not finish very high.

$120.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

Hoping to get back into the green.

First bet: Race 6 - #4 Destiny Star, 4/1. The works on this horse have been phenomenal. Half sibling Kentucky Kiss broke maiden on the turf. I don’t love taking a short price in a 2YO race but Johnny V is aboard here and have confidence this one will be given a fair shot. Maybe she gets overlooked since Hamm is her trainer?

Second bet: Race 9 - #2 Virginia Joy, 8/1. How many times has Chad Brown won a graded stakes race on turf for us all to say, “Of course, Chad Brown. How’d I miss that one?” I don’t love the pace scenario for the huge favorite War Like Goddess. She is obviously the class of this field…but she’s a late runner who may get no pace to run at. While likely front runners Elegant Taste and Vergara offer some appeal (the latter, much more so), I don’t think either of them are good enough to win this. She gets a massive jockey upgrade. Her last two races had Dylan Davis and Manny Franco aboard but she will have Prat aboard here. I think she’ll get a better trip this time around as the stalker right behind the two mentioned above and should get first run at them.

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

Interesting stat on Appleby FWIW

from 2021-Current

He is 18 Starts 4 Wins from Jan through July

He is 24 Starts 13 Wins Aug through December

[moses]

Originally Posted by jms62

Interesting stat on Appleby FWIW

from 2021-Current

He is 18 Starts 4 Wins from Jan through July

He is 24 Starts 13 Wins Aug through December

Interesting. 4/18 isn’t even bad. 13/24 is incredible. I didn’t realize that.

I really wanted to like the Chad maiden breaker in that race…but I have a feeling that was a pretty bad maiden field so couldn’t do it.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Well, I suck.

$128.00 wagered
$116.30 returned

First bet: Race 8 - #8 Mysterious Night, 10/1. There are several very good horses in this race. While this one hasn’t been great in his last two outings, I keep going back to that September race at Woodbine last year. He looked effortless in winning that and my hope is Charles Appleby has righted the ship here. I’m willing to find out at 10/1.

Second bet: Race 7 - #7 Papilio, 5/1. She has had some troubled trips in her recent starts but always shows heart and toughness. Looking for her to put it all together today.

Just saw that the 8 is scratched. I’ll take the #4 Ocean Vision, 15/1 morning line.

[theguarantee]

Will update record in the morning and will follow dahoss lead and post an extra pick given the rainout but will hold that for tomorrow since I’ll be trackside and looking more closely at the races. For today:

Best Bet: Race 8 #6 Dorth Vader 6/1 - think she finds the right spot and distance today and is as likely a winner as any in here.

Best Value: Race 12: #2 Danzigwiththestars - always liked this one and seems to be spotted pretty well today. Usually fires big at Saratoga and I guess maybe is not good enough but should run big today.

Good luck

[moses]

Program Trading won to collect $14.00. Charge It flopped.

$140.00 wagered.
$130.30 returned.

I’ll have to look at tomorrows races late tonight or tomorrow morning. Maybe I’ll add a third horse to even out the cancelation on Friday. I’ll have to see how I like the card. My 2nd alternate Cogburn won at a pretty nice price.

Just horrible about Maple Leaf Mel. Absolutely horrible.

[theguarantee]

Wednesday, 8/9:

Best Bet: Race 8 #7 Coppa Girl 9/2 - Looking to try to take on Raging Sea today and I think Coppa Girl is the one with the upside to do so. She learned to break last time and ran a hole in the wind proving she can now break, rate kindly and finish up. I guess there has to be some concern she really liked the track and the Ellis results were a bit wonky but I think there is some real talent here and everything Brad Cox is sending to Saratoga seems ever more live than usual this year.

Best Value: Race 9 #3 Know It All Audrey 8/1 - She'll be overlooked in this now small field and perhaps it's with good reason against these but I've been waiting for her to run back off that 7/20 race. She was in tight looking loaded the whole way around until things really went poorly and she had to steady very aggressively and lost all chance. She was then forced to circle the field very wide and still came with a big run for third behind a very sharp Mosienko and another Linda Rice runner who was white hot at the time. She galloped out very strong. I don't know if she's good enough in here but I have to give her a shot today off that trip at a square price.

Good luck.