Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

My picks just sucked yesterday. I’ve now wagered $48.00 and gotten back a pathetic $24.40. I haven’t really had a chance to look super close at the card today. With weather up in the air, I’m going to try to hit the early turf races.

Best bet: Race 2 - #4 Scuttlebuzz, 9/2 ML (Rodriguez/Lezcano).

Best value: Race 3 - #12 Unleveraged, 6/1 ML (Nevin/Santana).

Unleveraged got scratched. I’ll take a shot on the #6 Solid Tune in Race 6. 20/1 ML and currently 7/1.

[moses]

Total
$56.00 wagered
$24.40 returned

I’ve been so bad, I’m going to forego the commentary for today.

Best bet: Race 7 - #6 Winter Pool, 9/2 ML (Brown/Santana).

Best value:Race 5 - #10 Coach Bahe, 5/1 ML (Bauer/Gaffalione).

[moses]

Winter Pool finished 2nd. Coach Bahe didn’t do much running.

Total
$64.00 wagered
$28.20 returned

Best bet: Race 10 - #4 Rockemperor 6/1 ML (Brown/Rosario)

Best value: Race 1 - #4 Moving Pictures 8/1 ML (Breen/J.Ortiz)

[moses]

Rockemperor ran a nice race to finish 2nd, returning $6.20. A little sad when losing $1.80 on the day feels like a win. Maybe a new month will help change my luck. Tally is now at:

$72.00 wagered
$34.40 returned

Sunday August 1st

Best bet: Race 9 - #3 Jackie’s Warrior 6/5 ML (Asmussen/Rosario).

Best value: Race 6 - #11 Saratoga Affair 10/1 ML (Brown/I.Ortiz).

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Rockemperor ran a nice race to finish 2nd, returning $6.20. A little sad when losing $1.80 on the day feels like a win. Maybe a new month will help change my luck. Tally is now at:

$72.00 wagered
$34.40 returned

Sunday August 1st

Best bet: Race 9 - #3 Jackie’s Warrior 6/5 ML (Asmussen/Rosario).

Best value: Race 6 - #11 Saratoga Affair 10/1 ML (Brown/I.Ortiz).

Saratoga’s Affair is scratched. I was trying to avoid 2YO races and end up between Cherie Devaux’s horse in the 2nd who is 7/2 (and I suspect might drift up a bit) and the Jamie Ness horse in the 5th. I’ll probably be betting both of them but since the one horse is 7/2, I’ll hold my nose and go with:

Best value: Race 5 - #7 Kenner 15/1 ML (Ness/Rodriguez).

[casp0555]

that 5th is a doozy, it has Maker, Chad, Ness, and Cox..The Cox starter looks strongest from the debut'ers to me but these baby races are good luck!

[moses]

Originally Posted by casp0555

that 5th is a doozy, it has Maker, Chad, Ness, and Cox..The Cox starter looks strongest from the debut'ers to me but these baby races are good luck!

I was hoping to avoid betting a 2YO race but the weather looks rough for later in the card and I’m not very good at picking off-turf races…though I think I’m showing that I’m not very good at picking any type of race.

[casp0555]

Originally Posted by moses

Saratoga’s Affair is scratched. I was trying to avoid 2YO races and end up between Cherie Devaux’s horse in the 2nd who is 7/2 (and I suspect might drift up a bit) and the Jamie Ness horse in the 5th. I’ll probably be betting both of them but since the one horse is 7/2, I’ll hold my nose and go with:

Best value: Race 5 - #7 Kenner 15/1 ML (Ness/Rodriguez).

[moses]

Originally Posted by casp0555

I’m sure the 7 won’t win now…but if both come out, it’ll be a pretty nice day for me.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Rockemperor ran a nice race to finish 2nd, returning $6.20. A little sad when losing $1.80 on the day feels like a win. Maybe a new month will help change my luck. Tally is now at:

$72.00 wagered
$34.40 returned

Sunday August 1st

Best bet: Race 9 - #3 Jackie’s Warrior 6/5 ML (Asmussen/Rosario).

Best value: Race 6 - #11 Saratoga Affair 10/1 ML (Brown/I.Ortiz).

I’ll update so I don’t have to do it on Wednesday. Well I picked the wrong alternate. Jackie’s Warrior won easy and paid $5.20 total combined for win and place.

$80.00 wagered.
$39.60 returned.

[moses]

I'm going to be on the road the next couple days so I'll post my picks today with an alternate listed in case the turf races are taken off or in case of scratches. I like a few of the prices on Wednesday. I'm probably getting a little too creative with my picks on Thursday but I guess we'll see.

Wednesday August 4th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Casual, 9/2 ML (Asmussen/Santana).
Alternate: Race 4 - #4 Coffee Bar, 6/5 ML (Pletcher/I.Ortiz).

Best value: Race 10 - #2 Be Up, 8/1 ML (Thomas/Saez).
Alternate: Race 6 - #1 Towering Orbit, 8/1 ML (Baker/Rosario).
2nd Alternate: Race 7 - #11 Christopher, 10/1 ML (Stephens/Davis).


Thursday August 5th

Best bet: Race 7 - #5 Mr. Kringle, 6/1 ML (Terranova/Lezcano).
Alternate: Race 10 - #9 Escapewithfriends, 7/2 ML (Weaver/Cancel).

Best value: Race 4 - #7 Chulainn, 8/1 ML (Motion/Rosario).
Alternate: Race 8 - #7 Joey Loose Lips, 15/1 ML (Giangulio/Vargas).
2nd alternate: Race 3 - #5 Full Salute, 30/1 ML (Tournas/Harkie). (Note: This may be the first and only time I put Heman Harkie in my picks. I'm just not sold on any of the horses in this race and am intrigued with the possibility that this horse jumps out to the lead early and they aren't able to catch him late.)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I'm going to be on the road the next couple days so I'll post my picks today with an alternate listed in case the turf races are taken off or in case of scratches. I like a few of the prices on Wednesday. I'm probably getting a little too creative with my picks on Thursday but I guess we'll see.

Wednesday August 4th

Best bet: Race 8 - #4 Casual, 9/2 ML (Asmussen/Santana).
Alternate: Race 4 - #4 Coffee Bar, 6/5 ML (Pletcher/I.Ortiz).

Best value: Race 10 - #2 Be Up, 8/1 ML (Thomas/Saez).
Alternate: Race 6 - #1 Towering Orbit, 8/1 ML (Baker/Rosario).
2nd Alternate: Race 7 - #11 Christopher, 10/1 ML (Stephens/Davis).


Thursday August 5th

Best bet: Race 7 - #5 Mr. Kringle, 6/1 ML (Terranova/Lezcano).
Alternate: Race 10 - #9 Escapewithfriends, 7/2 ML (Weaver/Cancel).

Best value: Race 4 - #7 Chulainn, 8/1 ML (Motion/Rosario).
Alternate: Race 8 - #7 Joey Loose Lips, 15/1 ML (Giangulio/Vargas).
2nd alternate: Race 3 - #5 Full Salute, 30/1 ML (Tournas/Harkie). (Note: This may be the first and only time I put Heman Harkie in my picks. I'm just not sold on any of the horses in this race and am intrigued with the possibility that this horse jumps out to the lead early and they aren't able to catch him late.)

So checking in and my first alternate and second alternate for best value win. One at 7/2 and the other at 10/1. Of course I’ve been busy and didn’t bet either race. Major face palm.