Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Saratoga is off the turf today and I’m reading Antoinette is going to scratch. So let’s go:

Best bet: Race 4 - #1/1A Dubb Entry, 7/5 ML.

Best value: Race 6 - #8 Knowing Glance, 12/1 ML (Stall/Lezcano)

Well, I would have been better off with my original picks (Antoinette scratched so money back and Luna's in Charge paid $4.30 to place). The Dubb entry disappointed with a 2nd place finish paying $2.10 and Knowing Glance ran well but could only muster a 3rd place finish.

Tally
Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $24.40

I like a handful of potential mid-priced / longshot horses tomorrow so hopefully I can turn things around and pick the right ones.

Best bet: Race 4 - #7 East Wing, 6/1 ML (Lerman/Cancel). If you go back to this horse's maiden win, she settled right off the outside of the pacesetter, made a move going into the turn and just never looked back. A repeat of that performance would likely win this one. Although the pace could get hot, she draws outside of most of the speed, except the #9 Air Cavalry, so there is a decent chance that she gets a good trip. In her last race, she was steadied and then never seemed comfortable after that, flattening out in the stretch. She was outclassed in her 3 races between the maiden win and her last race so I think she's at the right class level now. I'm not sure if the addition of blinkers will help or not but given the connections, she should be a nice price given that Irad is aboard the morning line favorite Quasar for Rob Atras and Gargan sends out the 2nd choice Hollywood Gina. Quasar has 1 win in 23 lifetime starts and Hollywood Gina's one big race was on a sloppy track so I think it makes a lot of sense to try to beat the two favorites here.

Best value: Race 6 - #9 Beatbox, 5/1 ML (Brown/Castellano). I know that the morning line is always very good for NYRA tracks but the even money morning line on Cody's Wish seems absolutely insane to me. Granted, he's got talent, did not have the ideal trip last race, finished strong, and galloped out very nicely. But this will be his first race around two turns and I've lost too much money on Mott 2nd time starters thinking that they will put it all together in their 2nd race after flashing some talent in their debut. The morning line is probably right and he will take a lot of money. So I'm going to bet against him. Beatbox, a 1/2 brother to Guarana, ran alright in his last race, finishing 4th behind the #2 Absolute Courage and ahead of the #4 Vindictive. He looked a bit green in the stretch, though seemed to want to run once he altered out and got open space in front of him. If he is a horse that simply wants a clean trip, I think he'll get it from the outside post. Note the $2.1 million price tag. The owners are no doubt expecting something big from him.