Two at Toga - 2021 edition

[jms62]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Moses, Best Bet should be the horse you think is most likely to win for the day, price shouldn't matter.
Just my opinion. Good luck in your picks and may you be profitable. Also congrats on new baby.

I would say that would be "Lock of Day" and you should be hitting that at least 50% of the time and even at that rate you will lose money. "Best Bets" odds often leak up in these types of threads as guys get underwater and try to get out for the meet. If you can hit that "Lock of Day" at 50% and use it to key a Double or Exacta then you can build a successful strategy. Using in Tri's Pick3-4-5 is much harder though IMO as you have more places to stumble.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

I would say that would be "Lock of Day" and you should be hitting that at least 50% of the time and even at that rate you will lose money. "Best Bets" odds often leak up in these types of threads as guys get underwater and try to get out for the meet. If you can hit that "Lock of Day" at 50% and use it to key a Double or Exacta then you can build a successful strategy. Using in Tri's Pick3-4-5 is much harder though IMO as you have more places to stumble.

I’d respond to this obvious shot at me but the last time we went back and forth you got so mad that you wanted to sue me

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

I’d respond to this obvious shot at me but the last time we went back and forth you got so mad that you wanted to sue me

Not in the least. I think your best bet picks are right in the sweet spot of win percentage vs price. I'm so anti someone calling the most obvious winner on the card the best bet. Years ago on this board I got into one of those best bet, price contests and was destroying the guy until he hit a 60-1 "Best Bet". It wasn't a shot at you. His "best Bet" ML went up like 8 standard deviations during the later stages.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by jms62

Not in the least. I think your best bet picks are right in the sweet spot of win percentage vs price. I'm so anti someone calling the most obvious winner on the card the best bet. Years ago on this board I got into one of those best bet, price contests and was destroying the guy until he hit a 60-1 "Best Bet". It wasn't a shot at you. His "best Bet" ML went up like 8 standard deviations during the later stages.

I’m with you there. Anyone can identify most likely. My goal is to identify a horse that I’m betting that I think is the best bet in terms of likelihood of winning and value. Not a perfect science of course.

[moses]

Originally Posted by gamblin4ever

Moses, Best Bet should be the horse you think is most likely to win for the day, price shouldn't matter.
Just my opinion. Good luck in your picks and may you be profitable. Also congrats on new baby.

Originally Posted by jms62

I would say that would be "Lock of Day" and you should be hitting that at least 50% of the time and even at that rate you will lose money. "Best Bets" odds often leak up in these types of threads as guys get underwater and try to get out for the meet. If you can hit that "Lock of Day" at 50% and use it to key a Double or Exacta then you can build a successful strategy. Using in Tri's Pick3-4-5 is much harder though IMO as you have more places to stumble.

I think, in my mind, I typically consider the "best bet" a horse that I'd place a win wager on and also construct some vertical or horizontal tickets around it. A good example of this would have been the horse Quiberon Bay the other day at Monmouth. I had bet the horse to win, exacta on top, and singled in my Pick 5. The horse was something like 9/2 ML and went off at 5/2.

I think last year I got myself in trouble trying to pick horses "most likely" to win, and they often ran 2nd and wouldn't have paid well anyway.

[gamblin4ever]

Originally Posted by jms62

I would say that would be "Lock of Day" and you should be hitting that at least 50% of the time and even at that rate you will lose money. "Best Bets" odds often leak up in these types of threads as guys get underwater and try to get out for the meet. If you can hit that "Lock of Day" at 50% and use it to key a Double or Exacta then you can build a successful strategy. Using in Tri's Pick3-4-5 is much harder though IMO as you have more places to stumble.

True

[moses]

Well, nearly 30 posts in, here is what you've all been waiting for.

Wednesday, July 21

Best Bet: Race 6 - #1 G Money Liv, 6/1 ML (Moquett/Saez). I'm not really in love with any horses on this card. The #2, #6, #9, and #10 in this race all have starts under their belts and ran decently enough so I'm expecting that they'll each take a decent amount of money. This horse has exhibited some speed in workouts and had a solid 5 furlong workout from the gate 9 days ago, signaling to me that she is ready to race. With Saez aboard, I expect an aggressive ride and most of the horses with experience have started slow or had trouble out of the gate...so I'm looking for this one to grab the lead and never look back.

Best Value: Race 7 - #5 Amistad, 12/1 ML (C. Englehart/Lezcano). I’m assuming this one stays on the turf but may have to audible if it’s taken off. This one may be a stretch as the #7 Absam, #9 Prefect, #12 Gimme Some Mo, and a few others look stronger than Amistad. And Englehart is hitting at a pretty weak 7% in his last 94 turf starts. It may be foolish to expect the Ortiz brothers to get into a pace duel, but I do expect the pace to be quick enough to set up for one of the horses running late. The #5 Amistad had trouble near the top of the stretch last time out (enough for the winner to be DQ'ed) but still finished OK and showed some closing kick two back. He also flashed some turf talent in his maiden win going wide throughout and finishing strong. So I'll hope for the right pace setup and hope that he’s good enough to compete with these.

[Dahoss]

Good luck buddy. I like Amistad as well

[moses]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Good luck buddy. I like Amistad as well

Good luck to you too. Hopefully we will both hit with him.