Week/Weekend Stakes Beyers

[Dahoss]

What did the runner up in Nashville’s race get Beyerwise in his prior start?

[King Glorious]

I have a basic understanding of figures. I understand that tracks can change during the day depending on how much they water it, how the weather is, etc. This can explain why a track can have nearly identical times on a day and have different figures. I get that. What I have a harder time grasping is how they determine if it changed or not? Nashville ran super fast and broke the track record. Gamine did the same a couple of races later. Knicks Go did the same a couple of races later. Then came the Sprint. Whitmore's time was much slower than Nashville's yet he got a higher speed figure. Isn't that saying that the track slowed down? But then you come back with Monomoy Girl running a fast race and just missing the track record by .09 and then Authentic setting a track record a couple of races later.

Interesting stuff here.

[King Glorious]

Second part of the question. If perhaps they thought to themselves "This is crazy and dangerous" after having Nashville, Gamine, and Knicks Go set track records.....so they slowed the track down.....that would make sense in explaining why Whitmore's race was "faster" than Nashville's race.

But if the track had been slowed down, wouldn't that mean that Monomoy Girl and Authentic should have received much higher figures, especially Monomoy Girl? If she only got 100 after just missing the track record, isn't that saying the track was fast? So was it fast for every race except the Sprint? Does that make sense?

[freddymo]

My GUESS is they used some discretion to augment Nashville's fig? Let's listen to Andy tomorrow.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

Second part of the question. If perhaps they thought to themselves "This is crazy and dangerous" after having Nashville, Gamine, and Knicks Go set track records.....so they slowed the track down.....that would make sense in explaining why Whitmore's race was "faster" than Nashville's race.

But if the track had been slowed down, wouldn't that mean that Monomoy Girl and Authentic should have received much higher figures, especially Monomoy Girl? If she only got 100 after just missing the track record, isn't that saying the track was fast? So was it fast for every race except the Sprint? Does that make sense?

The Classic time is irrelevant to the discussion; the timing system was botched and they had to hand-time the race.

Monomoy Girl was just shy of the 9f track record that was recorded in October during the 2016 fall meet (1:47.75, Noble Bird in the Fayette).

Ignoring the new track record set by Nashville in Saturday's first race, Whitmore was just shy of the 6f track record that was also recorded in October during the 2016 fall meet (1:08.43, A.P. Indian in the Phoenix BC).

The track records set earlier in the card were something like 3/5 to a full second faster than the previous marks.

[Kasept]

BEYER CHARTING OF PERRYVILLE & BC SPRINT

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Kasept

BEYER CHARTING OF PERRYVILLE & BC SPRINT

Thanks. If you give Nashville a 110 that means the runner up gets a 102. That’d be a 15 point jump from his last race which was his career best, 87.

Seems pretty unreasonable.

It’s not an exact science but there is a method to the madness

[Dahoss]

How embarrassing is it that the Classic had to be hand timed?

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Thanks. If you give Nashville a 110 that means the runner up gets a 102. That’d be a 15 point jump from his last race which was his career best, 87.

Seems pretty unreasonable.

It’s not an exact science but there is a method to the madness

Two things. Yes, it does seem unreasonable on the surface to see that big a jump. So I do think that to an extent, you have to adjust the figures to what's reasonable. For me, it's what reasonable? When I see one change, it can make sense to me even if I don't agree with it. When I see multiple changes on the same card and they go back and forth, that's what seems like it uses too much judgement and not enough of just presenting the data and letting the follower interpret for themselves. Let today's race be based more on today rather than let previous races for a bunch of horses under a bunch of different circumstances have too much impact.

Second thing. Regarding that runner up and what he got last time, what was the race like? Who was the competition and what was the pace? What track was it on? I have seen horses that when left alone, can run 22, 44, 109 and win for fun. That same horse, if challenged up front or outrun, can run 23, 46, 110....and be nowhere to be found at the finish. One race, you'll see a horse run his best race while you might see another horse in the same race nowhere near his best because the goal is a bigger race later.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The Classic time is irrelevant to the discussion; the timing system was botched and they had to hand-time the race.

Monomoy Girl was just shy of the 9f track record that was recorded in October during the 2016 fall meet (1:47.75, Noble Bird in the Fayette).

Ignoring the new track record set by Nashville in Saturday's first race, Whitmore was just shy of the 6f track record that was also recorded in October during the 2016 fall meet (1:08.43, A.P. Indian in the Phoenix BC).

The track records set earlier in the card were something like 3/5 to a full second faster than the previous marks.

I'm confused as to what point you're making. Yes, if you ignore Nashville's race then Whitmore's looks better. But you can't ignore Nashville's race. So was the track really fast, which means fast times don't yield really high figures, or was it slow, where fast times will yield high figures? I think even if you eliminate the Gamine, Knicks Go, and Authentic races, the other three give us some interesting results. Nashville and Monomoy Girl both ran times that were too fast to get a 102 and 100 Beyer, respectively, if you figure the track was normal. So aren't the saying the track was really fast? If it was the same all day, Nashville has got to be higher than Whitmore and likely, so does Monomoy Girl. If it slowed down for Whitmore (and to be clear, I'm not saying Whitmore's race was slow, just slow by the standards of the past two days), how did it speed back up for the last two races?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by King Glorious

I'm confused as to what point you're making. Yes, if you ignore Nashville's race then Whitmore's looks better. But you can't ignore Nashville's race. So was the track really fast, which means fast times don't yield really high figures, or was it slow, where fast times will yield high figures? I think even if you eliminate the Gamine, Knicks Go, and Authentic races, the other three give us some interesting results. Nashville and Monomoy Girl both ran times that were too fast to get a 102 and 100 Beyer, respectively, if you figure the track was normal. So aren't the saying the track was really fast? If it was the same all day, Nashville has got to be higher than Whitmore and likely, so does Monomoy Girl. If it slowed down for Whitmore (and to be clear, I'm not saying Whitmore's race was slow, just slow by the standards of the past two days), how did it speed back up for the last two races?

My premise is that if the track was still as fast as it was earlier on the card then Monomoy Girl would have broke a track record as well.

It's shaky evidence to say they did not slow the track down because she almost broke a track record (so did Whitmore) and because Authentic's hand-timed race was a track record at a distance hardly ever run at that track.

[King Glorious]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

My premise is that if the track was still as fast as it was earlier on the card then Monomoy Girl would have broke a track record as well.

It's shaky evidence to say they did not slow the track down because she almost broke a track record (so did Whitmore) and because Authentic's hand-timed race was a track record at a distance hardly ever run at that track.

Ok, I get it now although I still disagree. The point about the 10f being rarely run is a legit one but he still set the record for the distance. I would just contend that if it was so fast that not only did Nashville obliterate the record but also the runner-up Wild Wes probably broke the track record......and they slowed it up to where the BC Sprint winner couldn't break the old record, then I would think that Monomoy Girl's figure would be much higher. Giving her a figure of 100 makes it look like yeah, it was a great time but the track was so fast that it wasn't as great as it appeared, the same reason why Nashville only got a 102.