September 5 CD Kentucky Derby ROI Wagers go here

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by cal828

Advanced wagering indicates:

Tiz 1/1
Honor AP 8-1
Authentic 9-1
Thousand Words 10-1
Money Moves 14-1
Max Player 15-1
NY Traffic 17-1
All Others between 20 and 50-1

Longshot players rejoice. You should get some juicy odds indeed.

I haven't decided whether to play the Derby or not, but seems unsportsman like not to.

I'm a little surprised at the amount of support for Money Moves. That's a substantial drop in the odds for such an inexperienced horse. He's making his stakes debut, whereas many with much higher odds are graded stakes winners. Perhaps it the Pletcher/Castellano connection.

The others you listed kind of make sense, but as you say it's early. Both Max and NY were too high in the ML, as least in my opinion.

[cal828]

^^^
Money Moves could be the "wiseguy" horse. I like Max and New York, but Max being closer to the rail is worrisome. Some pluses and minuses about him. Shown he can get the distance and "honest," as they say. If I play, both of those will be underneath in my deeper exotics. I have my doubts about both Bafferts, but as we all know, that can be hazardous to your wallet.

[JolyB]

I've also got my doubts about both of the Bafferts and don't know what to do with them. For actual wagers, I am avoiding both the win and exacta pools, since I don't see value for the horses I like in either of them. I am trying to put together a trifecta array and think it could be profitable even though it will have a lot of Tiz on top and a little in the second slot "just in case". I can see a scenario on the latter ticket where Thousand Words could be on top [same could be said for Honor AP], but I am against Authentic in the win slot. My perception of the Haskell was that he was at the end of his distance limits to get the 1 1/8 and I don't see him getting the extra distance, especially if someone else decides to contest what will probably be a faster pace. If he beats me, well I've been wrong before and will be again. So, I'll be using Authentic underneath, as well as Max and NY at least in the bottom rung. I'm struggling to find another in whom I have any strong feelings about passing tired horses and ending up in the third slot. Once you get beyond the top tier, so many of the rest of these look very much alike.

Isn't this fun?

[cal828]

I think the thing that makes it so hard for me is that it's generally not a race that a closer wins, but that doesn't mean they can't run second or third and they often do at big odds so your list of must includes seems to get longer and longer and you know all along you are including horses that are probably hopeless.

[RUFFIAN]

WITH A 'THOUSAND WORDS' TOO LOW
OTHER NAMES NOW SPRING TO MIND
WHAT'S IN A NAME RULES MY HEART
WILL DERBY DAY FOR ME, BE KIND?
===================================

RACE 4
#6 = $30 WIN {XIETELEHAUS}

#9 = $20 WIN { ME WE }
=============================

RACE 5
#12 = $26 WIN {LAST CHANCE AT GLORY}

#9 = $24 WIN { STAGE READY}
========================================

RACE 7
#1 = $30 WIN {AWARD WINNER}

#2 = $30 WIN {ALL WEST}
=========================================

RACE 14 ~ THE BIG DANCE

CAN THEY BEAT THE FAVORITE
WE JUST WAIT AND SEE
CAN A LONGSHOT COME THRU
AND WIN A BET FOR ME
{PROBABLY NOT }

#3 = $20 WIN {ENFORCEABLE}

#12 = $20 WIN {SOLE VOLANTE}
=============================================
=============================================

CHURCHILL COLOSSAL CATNIP FOR THE 'QUIET ONE'
==============================================

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by cal828

I think the thing that makes it so hard for me is that it's generally not a race that a closer wins, but that doesn't mean they can't run second or third and they often do at big odds so your list of must includes seems to get longer and longer and you know all along you are including horses that are probably hopeless.

I've looked at both Enforceable and Sole Volante as horses that fit that description to a T.

[cal828]

Right, I agree and maybe South Bend too. What to make of his trip in the Travers? Notation says "brushed the gate" which sounds innocuous enough, but he absolutely slammed into it. If slamming into other horses can cause them to lose races then slamming into cold steel can't help either, but then after the start he gets an easy inside trip and Max Player who also ran at the back of the pack, beats him by 2 lengths even though he had an outside trip.

[DonGuido]

Well since I got beat down playing the Oaks/Derby Double here's my $100, errr I mean $96 wagers.

Race 8; $4 Pick 4
4,5/2,6,9/7,10/4

Race 11: $4 Pick 4
4,6/8,9/1,3,4/17

[cruzan200246]

R7. 3 Casino Star $50 Win
R10. 11 Notary $50 Win
R11. 8 Belle Laura $50 Place
R14. 7 Money Moves $50 Win

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

I've also got my doubts about both of the Bafferts and don't know what to do with them. For actual wagers, I am avoiding both the win and exacta pools, since I don't see value for the horses I like in either of them. I am trying to put together a trifecta array and think it could be profitable even though it will have a lot of Tiz on top and a little in the second slot "just in case". I can see a scenario on the latter ticket where Thousand Words could be on top [same could be said for Honor AP], but I am against Authentic in the win slot. My perception of the Haskell was that he was at the end of his distance limits to get the 1 1/8 and I don't see him getting the extra distance, especially if someone else decides to contest what will probably be a faster pace. If he beats me, well I've been wrong before and will be again. So, I'll be using Authentic underneath, as well as Max and NY at least in the bottom rung. I'm struggling to find another in whom I have any strong feelings about passing tired horses and ending up in the third slot. Once you get beyond the top tier, so many of the rest of these look very much alike.

Isn't this fun?

Well, it's not wise to overlook Baffert in any big race, just like not messing with Mother Nature. Who'd a thunk it except that Johnny V rode Authentic perfectly to win and for some reason Tiz lost his winning kick. That's one of Cruz's criteria . . . HOF Jockey/Trainer combo, not sure about the back speed. On a personal note, this is the worst day of picking and wagering I've had in the past 20 yrs of being on these forum contests. Need a long freshening. Resting up for the Breeders Cup.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Well, it's not wise to overlook Baffert in any big race, just like not messing with Mother Nature. Who'd a thunk it except that Johnny V rode Authentic perfectly to win and for some reason Tiz lost his winning kick. That's one of Cruz's criteria . . . HOF Jockey/Trainer combo, not sure about the back speed. On a personal note, this is the worst day of picking and wagering I've had in the past 20 yrs of being on these forum contests. Need a long freshening. Resting up for the Breeders Cup.

Nothing more humiliating than reading my analysis one day later and seeing how wrong, Wrong, WRONG I was. So much for distance limitations of Authentic.

John V. was masterful and rationed out his speed the way a Hall of Famer can. The fractions were fairly healthy, so it's not as if he put everyone else to sleep -- he just rode only as fast as he needed to and had more than needed when the time came.

When Tiz came almost alongside at the quarter pole, I was thinking - here we go, only it went precisely the other way. So much for "expert" analysis.

Don, like you, I could use a freshening.

Happy Labor Day everyone.

ps - where did Mr. Big News come from - did anyone think he would finish that well? quite a performance on his part.

[Real Quiet]

Saturday

Race 6 20 cent superfecta
5-6-7-9-11
5-6-7-9-11
5-6-7-9-11
2-5-6-7-8-9-11-12 ($60)

Race 10 $20 ex key 2 w 1-7-9 ($60)

Race 14 $80 Win 18 ($80)

[cal828]

Originally Posted by cal828

^^^
I have my doubts about both Bafferts, but as we all know, that can be hazardous to your wallet.

Too bad I can't follow my own advice a little better. A somewhat fun and at least distracting day, if not very profitable. I made a couple of dollars on the Bellafina/Serengeti Empress thing, but gave it all back and few more on the Derby, but all in all not hurt too bad. I've certainly done a lot worse on Derby Day. Like you Don, I'm ready to move on the BC.

[cal828]

^^^
On Mr. Big News, in the waning moments before the race went off, I made an exacta and a tri with him with Enforceable and Tiz as well as a Win/Place on him. My reasoning was those 3 seemed to have the best breeding according to those little numbers on the Brisnet PPs. On DRF, they call them Tomlinson numbers. But it was all for naught. As for his PPs, I really didn't like them. His last win at Oaklawn was on a sloppy track so I thought he might be a wet track specialist. Inside post didn't help Enforceable, but there are always exceptions to every rule. I can remember just a couple of years ago, one of those deep closer types that ran 2nd from the one post with an almost perfect trip skimming the rail.

[RUFFIAN]

MY Day Went From Kittens 🐱 Joy 😊
To Cat Cat-Astrophe Crash In A Heartbeat 💗
When Thousand Words
Turned Into Thousand Naughtys

My only remaining Heart 💜 Hope
Enforceable 💗 + Sole Volante ♥️

Derby Dreams Down Da Drain 💔

[cal828]

Originally Posted by RUFFIAN-333

MY Day Went From Kittens 🐱 Joy 😊
To Cat Cat-Astrophe Crash In A Heartbeat 💗
When Thousand Words
Turned Into Thousand Naughtys

My only remaining Heart 💜 Hope
Enforceable 💗 + Sole Volante ♥️

Derby Dreams Down Da Drain 💔

I hope that Thousand Words is ok. So scary when they do things like that.

[RUFFIAN]

Has anybody seen an update on him
and that he is OK .