September 5 CD Kentucky Derby ROI Wagers go here

[DonGuido]

Originally Posted by JolyB

I've also got my doubts about both of the Bafferts and don't know what to do with them. For actual wagers, I am avoiding both the win and exacta pools, since I don't see value for the horses I like in either of them. I am trying to put together a trifecta array and think it could be profitable even though it will have a lot of Tiz on top and a little in the second slot "just in case". I can see a scenario on the latter ticket where Thousand Words could be on top [same could be said for Honor AP], but I am against Authentic in the win slot. My perception of the Haskell was that he was at the end of his distance limits to get the 1 1/8 and I don't see him getting the extra distance, especially if someone else decides to contest what will probably be a faster pace. If he beats me, well I've been wrong before and will be again. So, I'll be using Authentic underneath, as well as Max and NY at least in the bottom rung. I'm struggling to find another in whom I have any strong feelings about passing tired horses and ending up in the third slot. Once you get beyond the top tier, so many of the rest of these look very much alike.

Isn't this fun?

Well, it's not wise to overlook Baffert in any big race, just like not messing with Mother Nature. Who'd a thunk it except that Johnny V rode Authentic perfectly to win and for some reason Tiz lost his winning kick. That's one of Cruz's criteria . . . HOF Jockey/Trainer combo, not sure about the back speed. On a personal note, this is the worst day of picking and wagering I've had in the past 20 yrs of being on these forum contests. Need a long freshening. Resting up for the Breeders Cup.

[JolyB]

Originally Posted by DonGuido

Well, it's not wise to overlook Baffert in any big race, just like not messing with Mother Nature. Who'd a thunk it except that Johnny V rode Authentic perfectly to win and for some reason Tiz lost his winning kick. That's one of Cruz's criteria . . . HOF Jockey/Trainer combo, not sure about the back speed. On a personal note, this is the worst day of picking and wagering I've had in the past 20 yrs of being on these forum contests. Need a long freshening. Resting up for the Breeders Cup.

Nothing more humiliating than reading my analysis one day later and seeing how wrong, Wrong, WRONG I was. So much for distance limitations of Authentic.

John V. was masterful and rationed out his speed the way a Hall of Famer can. The fractions were fairly healthy, so it's not as if he put everyone else to sleep -- he just rode only as fast as he needed to and had more than needed when the time came.

When Tiz came almost alongside at the quarter pole, I was thinking - here we go, only it went precisely the other way. So much for "expert" analysis.

Don, like you, I could use a freshening.

Happy Labor Day everyone.

ps - where did Mr. Big News come from - did anyone think he would finish that well? quite a performance on his part.