Should Songbird retire?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

3rd or 5th choice, really? She has been overbet in almost every career race. She would probably be co favorite with Stellar Wind, 2nd choice at worst. Even though right now i dont think she could beat at least 4 horses being pointed to the Distaff.

The most immediate concern for Songbird is to clear this physical exam hurdle by the owner. Regardless of actual results, the owner's comments suggest that he's looking for a way out of any further exposure.

What he doesn't seem to realize is that there is plenty of time for Songbird to come to hand before the Breeder's Cup. If given the green light, there is no way Hollendorfer follows this cute little trend of "training up to the BC" (just when you thought the f'n circus couldn't get any worse). She will almost certainly run in the Zenyatta, which is important, because it gives the filly a chance to run from "out of her stall". Lots of people, and quasi-people (e.g., Freddy), have taken it for granted that she brings her A-game to her East Coast starts. That wasn't the case last year (her highest rated race was the BC Distaff at Santa Anita), so why should it be this year? Keep in mind that two horses that supposedly laid her over a barrel, Stellar Wind and Beholder, never were able to duplicate their home form on the road.

Speaking of those two, when was the first time Stellar Wind actually ran a fast race? Looks like October of her 4yo season to me. Beholder? August of her 5yo year. There's still time for Songbird to move up.

Finally, as a point of comparison with Beholder, I mentioned last year that Beholder's 2016 defeats--the Pacific Classic aside where she clearly was not in California Chrome's league--might be related to the fact that she was being sent to the lead and thus a sitting duck in the stretch. In fact, at the time it had been over 3 years since she won a race wire-to-wire. In the BC, she reverted to a stalking trip and tagged Songbird late.

I'd be curious to see if Songbird could improve form by tweaking her running style. Having a target to run at might change things up, or at the very least give Smith a better cue as to when to try and break the race open with her speed. Last year, Songbird sat second early in 3 of 8 starts.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The most immediate concern for Songbird is to clear this physical exam hurdle by the owner. Regardless of actual results, the owner's comments suggest that he's looking for a way out of any further exposure.

What he doesn't seem to realize is that there is plenty of time for Songbird to come to hand before the Breeder's Cup. If given the green light, there is no way Hollendorfer follows this cute little trend of "training up to the BC" (just when you thought the f'n circus couldn't get any worse). She will almost certainly run in the Zenyatta, which is important, because it gives the filly a chance to run from "out of her stall". Lots of people, and quasi-people (e.g., Freddy), have taken it for granted that she brings her A-game to her East Coast starts. That wasn't the case last year (her highest rated race was the BC Distaff at Santa Anita), so why should it be this year? Keep in mind that two horses that supposedly laid her over a barrel, Stellar Wind and Beholder, never were able to duplicate their home form on the road.

Speaking of those two, when was the first time Stellar Wind actually ran a fast race? Looks like October of her 4yo season to me. Beholder? August of her 5yo year. There's still time for Songbird to move up.

Finally, as a point of comparison with Beholder, I mentioned last year that Beholder's 2016 defeats--the Pacific Classic aside where she clearly was not in California Chrome's league--might be related to the fact that she was being sent to the lead and thus a sitting duck in the stretch. In fact, at the time it had been over 3 years since she won a race wire-to-wire. In the BC, she reverted to a stalking trip and tagged Songbird late.

I'd be curious to see if Songbird could improve form by tweaking her running style. Having a target to run at might change things up, or at the very least give Smith a better cue as to when to try and break the race open with her speed. Last year, Songbird sat second early in 3 of 8 starts.

Really looking forward to watching her rate in the Distaff that will be fun. Let's just hope the Delmar surface is to her liking.

[Seattleallstar]

I brought up Paradise Woods earlier, so what do we make of her?

Was that one freakish run, just a fluke?

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Seattleallstar

I brought up Paradise Woods earlier, so what do we make of her?

Was that one freakish run, just a fluke?

Another horse that suffered "too much, too soon". Jumped from a 5 1/2 furlong maiden win to 8 1/2 furlongs next out--never mind it was a Grade 1 race. Ran in the Kentucky Oaks in her 4th career start.

Simply put, she hasn't been able to overcome any adversity. Couldn't handle pace pressure, couldn't handle a muddy surface, maybe couldn't handle shipping. Then last weekend, couldn't overcome a bad break from the gate, couldn't settle, and folded like a cheap suit.

Probably has physical issues, too, since she didn't come out at 2, then went on the shelf for several months after the KY Oaks. Stumbling out the gate is never a good sign either in that respect.

If they sit on her and wait for the La Brea or an allowance at the end of the year, she might be able to realize some of her promise.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Really looking forward to watching her rate in the Distaff that will be fun. Let's just hope the Delmar surface is to her liking.

Yeah, the surface is a huge concern. Especially since Songbird has been so finicky about what tracks she likes in the past.

[Alabama Stakes]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yeah, the surface is a huge concern. Especially since Songbird has been so finicky about what tracks she likes in the past.

Mo is so far off on this one

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yeah, the surface is a huge concern. Especially since Songbird has been so finicky about what tracks she likes in the past.

Well, Arrogate ran on everything before Delmar...

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by cakes44

Well, Arrogate ran on everything before Delmar...

Yep, and his Beyer jumped up 30 points when he actually trained on it for a few weeks, registering the 5th fastest Beyer so far this year.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Yeah, the surface is a huge concern. Especially since Songbird has been so finicky about what tracks she likes in the past.

Well we heard about the deep tiring track at Delaware so at least we have that excuse already warmed up in the bullpen. That plucky 92 BSF life or death to fend off a 50 claimer while galloping alone on the lead was just the a tear jerker who knew the good lord created such magnificence, we are blessed. I turned to the wife and said "remember Rachel's Haskell forget that Kaka this filly Songbird just re invented greatness.." Tito pass me a tissue

How about trying the boys I guess that's a non starter now huh? Even with her not having to commute to work? Good news with the advent of her new preferred way of going(rating) AND not having to travel she is likely to sprout wings..I don't know I am starting to think the Classic is the likely target why screw with Stellar Wind and we know she would have won last week if that cheat jockey didnt surprise her at the last minute or was it the crooked camera? Who knows maybe it was both?

Let's stop the madness for a minute and realize we both can name 10 fillies that she couldnt get with 5 lengths of on her best day. Does that make her rat NO it makes her absurd rep unwarranted.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Let's stop the madness for a minute and realize we both can name 10 fillies that she couldnt get with 5 lengths of on her best day. Does that make her rat know it makes her absurd rep unwarranted.

Utter filth. Never mind historical fillies--we all know she's not as fast. But name me some contemporary females that Songbird could have faced that were consistently running faster than her at the same point in their careers.

Beholder? Nope.
Stellar Wind? No.
Untapable? Wrong.
I'm A Chatterbox? Please.
Wedding Toast? Nah.
Curlina? Try again.
Forever Unbridled? SMH.
Stopcharginmaria? Really?
Sheer Drama? Scraping the bottom here.
Got Lucky? Not quite.
Warren's Veneda? Fail.
Elate? Forget about it.
Abel Tasman? Are you serious?

The only filly I could find was Cavorting, who registered 3 straight triple digit Beyers (top of 102) last year. Of course, she "bone bruised" her way into retirement after that display, conveniently opting out of both the Beldame and the BC Distaff--you know, championship events.

And as far as absurdity goes, it doesn't get any more absurd then foregoing a post-race interview of the winner of the Personal Ensign (Joel Rosario on Forever Unbridled) to ask Mike Smith if Songbird should be retired for losing the race in a photo.

The reality is Songbird can easily win this year's BC Distaff, because as slow as she is, so is everyone else--just like last year.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Utter filth. Never mind historical fillies--we all know she's not as fast. But name me some contemporary females that Songbird could have faced that were consistently running faster than her at the same point in their careers.

Beholder? Nope.
Stellar Wind? No.
Untapable? Wrong.
I'm A Chatterbox? Please.
Wedding Toast? Nah.
Curlina? Try again.
Forever Unbridled? SMH.
Stopcharginmaria? Really?
Sheer Drama? Scraping the bottom here.
Got Lucky? Not quite.
Warren's Veneda? Fail.
Elate? Forget about it.
Abel Tasman? Are you serious?

The only filly I could find was Cavorting, who registered 3 straight triple digit Beyers (top of 102) last year. Of course, she "bone bruised" her way into retirement after that display, conveniently opting out of both the Beldame and the BC Distaff--you know, championship events.

And as far as absurdity goes, it doesn't get any more absurd then foregoing a post-race interview of the winner of the Personal Ensign (Joel Rosario on Forever Unbridled) to ask Mike Smith if Songbird should be retired for losing the race in a photo.

The reality is Songbird can easily win this year's BC Distaff, because as slow as she is, so is everyone else--just like last year.

Why never mind historical fillies because you are sane? That is what folks perhaps not you deemed her to be, she isnt. BTW Curlina's best was darn good infrequent but she was fast.

It was a dopey question but speaks to the insane rep she has garnered as the best EVAH. People dont know the difference between Land over Sea and Lite Light. People called her Go for Wand, Ruffian, Personal Ensign, Inside Information, Rachel, Zenyatta etc. she barely is in Ashado's league.

Several of the fillies you list would absolutely beat her half the time and that's the issue, she is as fast those and compared with the true greatest

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

WPeople called her Go for Wand, Ruffian, Personal Ensign, Inside Information, Rachel, Zenyatta etc. she barely is in Ashado's league.

Several of the fillies you list would absolutely beat her half the time and that's the issue, she is as fast those and compared with the true greatest

Inside Information wasn't fast at 2 or 3, not particularly adept at getting two turns, and apparently not particularly sound since her 3yo season ended halfway through, so a case could be made that Songbird would have trounced her at 3.

Personal Ensign ran all of 4 times as a 3yo coming off a severe leg fracture, with only 2 starts in stakes races and only one Grade 1 (the Beldame) getting 10f in 2:04+.

Zenyatta never ran at 2 or 3 and rarely started on a dirt track.

So there's inflation on both sides of the argument. Perhaps its moot now that Songbird has run 3 relatively slow races at 4, but she theoretically still has two cracks at it.

If she throws up a 110+ or two the way Stellar Wind and Beholder did late in their careers what judgment will pass from your lips, O Wise One?