15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

hmmm. You want a yes/no answer from Rollo Tomasi, but you avoided my question to you. Let me paraphrase it: If the close voting for 2014 Juvenile Champion had gone the other way, and Texas Red had won it, would that mean that American Pharoah would have a smaller chance to win the TC, in your opinion?

You've written that AP is "a stone cold cinch" to win the Belmont. How much of that is due to his squeaking out a 53%/47% win over Texas Red, 126-111? In fact, AP got less than 50% of all the votes cast for 2-yr-old Champion.

So you want a yes no respond to a hypothetical question? If AP hadn't won the two year award for best Juvy colt he would had to overcome a 0/22 historical statistic and theoretically be very much up against history. I would suggest that given his actual form I would not be nearly are convinced he would be successful in Belmont. History is not to be dismissed as decades of situations tend to even out many a variable.