2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar

I agree with this. If the race is bet like it's being talked about, Upstart will be far and away the best value. Materiality would be good value too, but I prefer a horse with Upstart's foundation.