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Old 04-26-2015, 09:14 AM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar
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  #2  
Old 04-27-2015, 01:21 PM
tywizard tywizard is offline
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Has a rider been named for Lovely Maria?
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Old 04-27-2015, 01:52 PM
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As originally indicated by Baffert weeks ago, leaning against running either Maybelline or Luminance in the Oaks after watching them work Monday.. #15 Forever Unbridled and #16 Money'soncharlotte will get in with defections..

Lord Nelson however set for Pat Day Mile after sharp work v. Maybelline..

Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
-- Maybellene -- Possible (Baffert)
10. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
11. Puca (Mott)
12. Shook Up (Asmussen)
-- Luminance -- Possible (Baffert)
13. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
14. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
----------------------------------
15. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
16. Callback (Baffert)
17. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)
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Last edited by Kasept : 04-27-2015 at 04:14 PM.
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Old 04-27-2015, 04:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Kasept View Post
Kentucky Oaks

1. Condo Commando (Rodriguez)
2. I’m a Chatterbox (Jones)
3. Stellar Wind (Sadler)
4. Birdatthewire (Romans)
5. Lovely Maria (Jones)
6. Include Betty (Proctor)
7. Oceanwave (Catalano)
8. Angela Renee (Pletcher)
9. Sarah Sis (Mason)
10. Eskenformoney (Pletcher)
11. Puca (Mott)
12. Shook Up (Asmussen)
13. Forever Unbridled (Stewart)
14. Money'soncharlotte (Breen)
----------------------------------
15. Danessa Deluxe (Navarro)
16. Callback (Baffert)
17. Wonder Gal (Gyarmati)
Marty McGee confirms from Baffert that his fillies won't enter Oaks.. Forever Unbridled and Money'soncharlotte added to field of 14. Draws tomorrow..
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A long habit of not thinking a thing wrong, gives it a superficial appearance of being right. ~ Thomas Paine
Don't let anyone tell you that your dreams can't come true. They are only afraid that theirs won't and yours will. ~ Robert Evans
The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. ~ George Orwell, 1984.
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  #5  
Old 04-27-2015, 07:15 PM
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Oaks/Derby double... Stellar Wind-AP.

That is all.
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  #6  
Old 04-28-2015, 11:11 AM
munster705 munster705 is offline
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Thoughts on Firing Line? I am leaning towards him with 5 days to post.....love the preps....ran right with the favorite in here and it sounds like they are training him to rate off the pace
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Old 04-28-2015, 05:59 PM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
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Thoughts on Firing Line? I am leaning towards him with 5 days to post.....love the preps....ran right with the favorite in here and it sounds like they are training him to rate off the pace
He's in my top 3, at the moment

I'd love to see odds on a prop bet that he'd finish ahead of Dortmund, which I believe can very well happen.
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  #8  
Old 04-27-2015, 02:01 PM
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ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
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Originally Posted by Dunbar View Post
I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar
I agree with this. If the race is bet like it's being talked about, Upstart will be far and away the best value. Materiality would be good value too, but I prefer a horse with Upstart's foundation.
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  #9  
Old 04-27-2015, 02:19 PM
saratogadew saratogadew is offline
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My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.
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  #10  
Old 04-27-2015, 02:33 PM
GPK GPK is offline
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Shows how little I follow racing these days. I had no idea Finnegans Wake was still racing.
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  #11  
Old 04-27-2015, 02:44 PM
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knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
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Shows how little I follow racing these days. I had no idea Finnegans Wake was still racing.
He races about once every month since mid last year. Workhorse.
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Old 04-27-2015, 02:48 PM
GPK GPK is offline
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He races about once every month since mid last year. Workhorse.
What do you know about that word? Aren't you on vacay like 2 weeks a month?
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  #13  
Old 04-27-2015, 03:11 PM
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knickslions2 knickslions2 is offline
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What do you know about that word? Aren't you on vacay like 2 weeks a month?
Whats it raining down there since youre not on a golf course?

Boston was damn nice last week though. Actually did do some work too.
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  #14  
Old 04-27-2015, 02:42 PM
saratogadew saratogadew is offline
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Originally Posted by saratogadew View Post
My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.
Oaks:
Condo Commando
Oceanwave
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
Shook Up
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  #15  
Old 04-27-2015, 07:47 PM
Scav Scav is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by saratogadew View Post
My early Oaks/Derby Double selection:

Condo Commando
By the Moon
Stellar Wind
Lovely Maria
West Coast Belle

OVER

American Pharoah
Mubtaahij
Firing Line
Stanford
Far Right

$4.00 Double
100.
Not to be rude, but are you really gonna play that? I mean, if it comes up Wind / AP, you are looking at getting 40$ or 50$ back on $4
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  #16  
Old 04-27-2015, 08:46 PM
RHT2004 RHT2004 is offline
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Anyone know if they have the 2 day pick 3 this year?
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  #17  
Old 04-27-2015, 08:53 PM
Kitan Kitan is offline
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Anyone know if they have the 2 day pick 3 this year?
http://www.churchilldowns.com/racing...mes-wager-menu

Yes.
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  #18  
Old 04-28-2015, 11:06 AM
-BT- -BT- is offline
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http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports...9dd_story.html

had no clue Shah was a local boy....Vienna, VA

-bt-
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  #19  
Old 04-28-2015, 02:17 PM
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Thunder Gulch Thunder Gulch is offline
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Not to be rude, but are you really gonna play that? I mean, if it comes up Wind / AP, you are looking at getting 40$ or 50$ back on $4
Not even that. Last year the chalk P3 paid $4.25 per $50c. Everyone had those 3 in their wheels. I won and lost money. The double was $5.70 per $1
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  #20  
Old 04-30-2015, 08:46 PM
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Dunbar Dunbar is offline
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I'm failing to see what, if anything, separates Am Pharoah and Dortmund by so much over Upstart and Materiality. I get it that Materiality has only had 3 races. But those races were not cakewalks. His (and to a lesser extent Upstart's) last-race BSF's are significantly superior to AP's and Dortmund's. And I get that AP was wound down late in the Ark Derby, but not IMO to a degree that would have flipped the BSF order.

At this point I'm thinking that Am Pharoah and Dortmund will both be significantly overbet. Carpe Diem will be wildly overbet. There should be a lot of value in several of the other horses.

--Dunbar
FWIW, I'm less confident now that Dortmund will be "significantly overbet". With post positions considered, and most of Dortmund's toughest competition drawing poorly, I'd make Dortmund a 9-2 fav in a no-vig line. So, if he goes off at 4-1 or higher, I wouldn't think that's "overbet".

--Dunbar
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photo from REUTERS/Lucas Jackson
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