2015: American Pharoah becomes 12th Triple Crown winner

[declansharbor]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

You're right. That line sucks.





Both Frosted and Firing Line are available at 20-1 at 5Dimes.

--Dunbar

Unbelievable that you can get 20-1 on a horse that barely lost to one of the big early favorites (Dortmund) the last two times they faced off. Firing Line has every right to turn the tables, too.

[Dunbar]

Here's a list of Derby odds taken from just 2 offshore books: Just 4 are from Bookmaker.com. The rest are from 5Dimes.

This line's odds add to 111%, which is equivalent to a 10% takeout. Considering that it includes about 7 also-eligibles, that's a pretty remarkable number.

AMERICANPHAROAH.. 3.05 --Bookmaker
DORTMUND.. 5
CARPEDIEM.. 10
MUBTAAHIJ.. 12
MATERIALITY.. 14.15 --Bookmaker
FROSTED.. 20
FIRINGLINE.. 20
UPSTART.. 25
INTERNATIONALSTAR.. 25
EL KABEIR.. 40
BOLO.. 50
FARRIGHT.. 50
WARSTORY.. 50
OCHO OCHO OCHO 50
DANZIGMOON.. 50
ONELUCKYDANE.. 50
ITSAKNOCKOUT.. 60.5 --Bookmaker
TENCENDUR.. 60.5 --Bookmaker
Keen Ice.. 66
Madefromlucky.. 66
STANFORD.. 66
Bold Conquest.. 66
Mr. Z.. 66
Frammento.. 66
Metaboss.. 100
Firespike.. 100
ToastingMaster.. 100


Toasting Master? Not sure why he's in this list, but if you discount his chance of making the starting gate, the takeout is 9%.


--Dunbar

[Danzig]

Intl star sweeps la and is 25.1. Hed be worth a few bucks

[jms62]

Originally Posted by Danzig

Intl star sweeps la and is 25.1. Hed be worth a few bucks

They got me with Fresian Fire. Fool me twice shame on me.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by jms62

They got me with Fresian Fire. Fool me twice shame on me.

[Kitan]

Wasn't Friesan Fire coming off a 7 week layoff?

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by tywizard

Frosted at 20-1 might be a good price. I expect he becomes a bit of a wise guy horse over the next two weeks.

I'd like to know what exactly Tencendur has done wrong - caught off-tracks in 3 of 5 starts, and moved up nicely when finally catching a fast main track. A lot of Frosted love here, yet this one had a legit shot to move way up off the Wood effort and is not even in many of the discussions.

[jnunan4759]

tywizard, what should the % be ? I know it's 100% plus takeout which I think is 20% to 24% here.

I think a 145% line is highly dubious as to the motive. I think it's fishy. Maybe essentially it's accurate in ranking, but it serves to make people think they are getting bargains, when they aren't. I think it's deceptive.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by jms62

They got me with Fresian Fire. Fool me twice shame on me.

I think FF had tremendous physical issues though.