Ride on Normandy Invasion

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How many of you bet on him?

I picked him 2nd and needed him for some nice money in bets tied into Princess of Sylmar on Friday ... I also made myself look like a bigger fool than ever with continual downplaying of Orb ... which I couldn't resist until watching Authenticity and Take Charge Indy both run huge on Friday.

Still ... if the roles were reversed ... and Orb ran the race Normandy Invasion did and Normandy Invasion ran the race Orb did ... I'd say without hesitation that Orb was too close to the pace and arguably best.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

I picked him 2nd and needed him for some nice money in bets tied into Princess of Sylmar on Friday ... I also made myself look like a bigger fool than ever with continual downplaying of Orb ... which I couldn't resist until watching Authenticity and Take Charge Indy both run huge on Friday.

Still ... if the roles were reversed ... and Orb ran the race Normandy Invasion did and Normandy Invasion ran the race Orb did ... I'd say without hesitation that Orb was too close to the pace and arguably best.

How about trackus ground loss?

[Calzone Lord]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

How about trackus ground loss?

NBC did a pretty cool segment with Donna Barton walking the track.

It came right before the Kevin Krigger piece.

The inside path and 2-path both were firm. As she walked across the track, her foot started to sink down in the 3 path, 4 path, 5 path. She said "the track is much deeper here" But from about the 6 or 7 path outward, the ground was suddenly firm again.

It's tricky to account for ground loss when the rail and 2 path look good, the 7 path and out look good ... and everything in between them looks deeper, and according to Donna Barton, was deeper as she walked over it.

[Calzone Lord]

The piece was with 2 hours and 42 minutes left in the 4 hour broadcast if you DVR'd it. She's standing in the stretch.

Maybe next time it rains, they could have Dickinson walk the course in ladies shoes like he used to when he'd train.

[Travis Stone]

She did a very similar segment when Super Saver won. In fact, she might have even mentioned the perfect path was right where Calvin Borel liked to be.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

The piece was with 2 hours and 42 minutes left in the 4 hour broadcast if you DVR'd it. She's standing in the stretch.

Maybe next time it rains, they could have Dickinson walk the course in ladies shoes like he used to when he'd train.

but he has to promise to stick a finger down into it as well.

[JJP]

Originally Posted by Calzone Lord

NBC did a pretty cool segment with Donna Barton walking the track.

It came right before the Kevin Krigger piece.

The inside path and 2-path both were firm. As she walked across the track, her foot started to sink down in the 3 path, 4 path, 5 path. She said "the track is much deeper here" But from about the 6 or 7 path outward, the ground was suddenly firm again.

It's tricky to account for ground loss when the rail and 2 path look good, the 7 path and out look good ... and everything in between them looks deeper, and according to Donna Barton, was deeper as she walked over it.

I saw the piece and it was pretty clear there was some very deep paths. Orb appeared to be on the good part out in the center of the track, and Revolutionary closed on a good rail.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by JJP

I saw the piece and it was pretty clear there was some very deep paths. Orb appeared to be on the good part out in the center of the track, and Revolutionary closed on a good rail.

While I doubt the track was "even", I'm not so sure it matters much how it feels to a 110 pound woman walking on it compared to 1000 pound horses. It is very possible the footing underneath was not like what was on top.

[MaTH716]

I think that Javy started his early move because he saw Stevens starting to move on Oxbow. In my opinion Stevens is the one who made the real premature move. He was in the garden spot, saving all the groud. He even looked relatively clean heading for home, why did he go so early? That's the ride that should be put on the microscope more than Javy's.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

While I doubt the track was "even", I'm not so sure it matters much how it feels to a 110 pound woman walking on it compared to 1000 pound horses. It is very possible the footing underneath was not like what was on top.

This is a good point.

[Travis Stone]

The pace was brutal. The race completely fell apart. Oxbow was the only horse within a sniff of the pace who ran on in the stretch.

In 2012, Creative Cause made the same move while I'll Have Another just cruised into position. In 2011 Nehro made the same move and was passed late. In 2010 it was Noble's Promise. In 2009 it was Pioneerof the Nile. And so on. Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro.

Obviously, every race is different. Normandy Invasion was asked to commit with 3 1/2 to go while three wide. He made the lead 2 1/2 furlongs out. Combine that with being relatively close to the supersonic pace, my handicapping gut tells me with a more patient ride, the stretch drive is a different story. Same outcome? Who knows. But, definitely a different story.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The pace was brutal. The race completely fell apart. Oxbow was the only horse within a sniff of the pace who ran on in the stretch.

In 2012, Creative Cause made the same move while I'll Have Another just cruised into position. In 2011 Nehro made the same move and was passed late. In 2010 it was Noble's Promise. In 2009 it was Pioneerof the Nile. And so on. Only two horses made a similar move and finished-up: Big Brown and Barbaro.

Obviously, every race is different. Normandy Invasion was asked to commit with 3 1/2 to go while three wide. He made the lead 2 1/2 furlongs out. Combine that with being relatively close to the supersonic pace, my handicapping gut tells me with a more patient ride, the stretch drive is a different story. Same outcome? Who knows. But, definitely a different story.

Unless its a different outcome whats the point? Either you think NI would have beaten Orb if he would have been 4 or 5 lengths further off the pace and moved at the same time as Orb or not.. If you think Orb was losing to NI perhaps you will just get a sweeter price in the Travers

[Travis Stone]

The move was eerily similar to the move he put Bernardini through in the BC Classic. It was too early. I'm surprised there is debate about it. He was pushed-on for his bid outside the quarter pole in a race where the winning move is almost often after they straighten away.

If I'll Have Another was pushed into the pace on the far turn, he doesn't win. Obviously not every race is the same, but how many times is the Derby winner moving into contention as they near the quarter pole, and then taking over in the straight versus a big move on the turn? There are only so many Big Browns.

[Cannon Shell]

He ran 40 feet less than the Orb. What is that 2 or 3 lengths?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

He ran 40 feet less than the Orb. What is that 2 or 3 lengths?

That stat would matter if he was far back as Orb, versus moving into the teeth of a wicked pace many lengths ahead of Orb.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

That stat would matter if he was far back as Orb, versus moving into the teeth of a wicked pace many lengths ahead of Orb.

So ground loss only matter based on pace?

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

So ground loss only matter based on pace?

No, of course not. The race completely collapsed. Normandy Invasion made a premature move in my opinion worth more than the x number of feet he traveled less than Orb. Let's be real. Orb won, but Golden Soul was second. The race was an utter meltdown. If Normandy Invasion waits, I think he wins, or comes very close.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

No, of course not. The race completely collapsed. Normandy Invasion made a premature move in my opinion worth more than the x number of feet he traveled less than Orb. Let's be real. Orb won, but Golden Soul was second. The race was an utter meltdown. If Normandy Invasion waits, I think he wins, or comes very close.

So assuming they were side by side in Orb's position for the first mile you believe NI would have out finished Orb and won the derby? It's not a preposterous position but it sure doesn't have much evidence behind it. Now lo and behold this colt that is still eligible for 1NX is going to out run the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby winner who is on the improve? Lot's of very smart people think NI is a very good colt and he obviously was given a suspect ride but IMO he only beats ORB Saturday if Orb fell. Currently Orb is quite a bit faster and more importantly handy enough for a good rider to adapt to changing race dynamics.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Normandy Invasion made a premature move in my opinion worth more than the x number of feet he traveled less than Orb

How does one go about calculating this? I'm being serious. When a horse "moves" is basically a visual interpretation of the race considering virtually all dirt races are slowing down when the moves occur. How do you measure that against 40 feet?

[DaTruth]

In hindsight, it was foolish for Javier to make that move during the second quarter, but perhaps Javier was just following orders, albeit orders that were given with the thought that the pace wouldn't be as fast as it was. If Chad Brown's strategy was to have Normandy Invasion actually be in the lead in the stretch (something which NI hadn't done in a long time) and make the others catch him, then the strategy worked as planned.