Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by philcski

Time doesn't MATTER unless you're in JAIL.

Putting the Derby aside for a second, this is what I don't get about the dude's analysis. He talks about how so and so made "this run" and "that move" but if you completely ignore fractions, how the hell do you know if a horse was really accelerating or if the others were slowing down? For instance, sometimes in races (especially routes), a horse or two will separate from the field early, then three or four horses will catch up quickly down the backstretch. This doesn't make sense visually until you see that the fractions were something like :23 and :49. If horses get closer during a slow quarter after being far behind during a fast one, that doesn't mean they were making an early move, nor should they be given extra credit if they win with "another" move.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Putting the Derby aside for a second, this is what I don't get about the dude's analysis. He talks about how so and so made "this run" and "that move" but if you completely ignore fractions, how the hell do you know if a horse was really accelerating or if the others were slowing down? For instance, sometimes in races (especially routes), a horse or two will separate from the field early, then three or four horses will catch up quickly down the backstretch. This doesn't make sense visually until you see that the fractions were something like :23 and :49. If horses get closer during a slow quarter after being far behind during a fast one, that doesn't mean they were making an early move, nor should they be given extra credit if they win with "another" move.

Super Saver :23.58 :23.96 :24.15 :26.22 :26.55 Borel C H 8.00
Ice Box :26.35 :23.94 :24.03 :24.45 :26.10 Lezcano J 11.70
Paddy O'Prado :24.40 :23.84 :24.10 :25.69 :26.89 Desormeaux K J 12.30
Make Music for Me :26.86 :24.11 :23.69 :24.01 :26.59 Rosario J 30.00
Noble's Promise :23.62 :23.50 :24.06 :26.47 :27.82 Martinez W 24.90¨
Lookin At Lucky :25.84 :24.11 :24.11 :24.62 :26.95 Gomez G K 6.30
Dublin :24.74 :24.36 :23.74 :25.29 :27.60 Thompson T J 20.00
Stately Victor :25.42 :23.85 :24.08 :24.89 :27.69 Garcia Alan 20.20
Mission Impazible :23.24 :24.31 :24.34 :26.44 :27.95 Maragh R 16.70
Devil May Care :24.13 :23.77 :24.17 :25.86 :28.57 Velazquez J R 10.90
American Lion :23.60 :24.13 :24.35 :26.08 :29.48 Flores D R 23.20
Jackson Bend :23.87 :24.19 :24.52 :25.56 :29.54 Smith M E 23.00
Discreetly Mine :23.23 :24.06 :24.42 :26.34 :30.74 Castellano J J 31.60
Dean's Kitten :24.82 :23.84 :24.35 :26.27 :30.06 Albarado R J 25.70
Conveyance :22.63 :23.53 :24.42 :27.43 :33.80 Garcia M 27.00
Homeboykris :24.30 :24.47 :24.71 :27.60 :32.52 Dominguez R A 27.00
Sidney's Candy :22.80 :23.62 :24.34 :27.84 :35.09 Talamo J 9.50
Line of David :23.14 :23.96 :24.62 :28.67 :34.35 Bejarano R 19.90
Awesome Act :25.16 :24.02 :24.20 :26.32 :35.07 Leparoux J R 11.60
Backtalk :24.31 :24.43 :24.62 :27.44 :35.58 Mena M 23.10

Judging by the fourth quarter mile It looks like the leaders were backing up and NP simply inherited the lead. I can't see anything to indicate he was the one to "collapse the race".

[slotdirt]

Michael Johnson in his prime would have given those last few finishers a run for their money in a foot race from the quarter pole.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Judging by the fourth quarter mile It looks like the leaders were backing up and NP simply inherited the lead. I can't see anything to indicate he was the one to "collapse the race".

Once again, not to discredit what you are pointing out, but it may be more than the fractions. Noble's Promise made a classic premature move that triggered the ensuing collapse. It was partially timing....but it's worth thinking about.

At best it cost him 4th place. That last quarter was brutal.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Once again, not to discredit what you are pointing out, but it may be more than the fractions. Noble's Promise made a classic premature move that triggered the ensuing collapse. It was partially timing....but it's worth thinking about.

I understand and I'll have to watch the race again. I suppose it's possible that within that fourth quarter he ran faster the second portion than SS did even though SS fourth quarter was faster (at least according to the charts).

[Port Conway Lane]

I've watched the race again and NBC showed the overhead view. If any premature move was made by NP it was going into the first turn where he went from a half length behind SS to 2 1/2 lengths ahead of him. From that point in the race to the finish at no point did he gain any ground on SS.

NP was one off the rail around the far turn while SS was against the rail so I suppose any ground loss has to be taken into consideration.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Judging by the fourth quarter mile It looks like the leaders were backing up and NP simply inherited the lead. I can't see anything to indicate he was the one to "collapse the race".

This is exactly my point, and why I said I don't understand how one can determine who's accelerating and when if one ignores fractions.

[Danzig]

Noble's Promise, who had the lead in the Derby at the quarter pole but was overtaken by Super Saver and Calvin Borel and finished fifth, has been moved from “doubtful” to “possible” by trainer Kenny McPeek after meeting with the managing partners of Chasing Dreams Racing 2008 this afternoon at McPeek’s Magdalena Farm in Lexington.

“He ran a great race,” added McPeek. “ He is a special colt. Does he have distance limitations? We have to admit he might have them. Do we tinker and see if we can get him to go that far? We’re willing to try.”

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This is exactly my point, and why I said I don't understand how one can determine who's accelerating and when if one ignores fractions.

Which is why I quoted your statement to begin with. I think that statement is most pertinent to the issue of whether he was the one that collapsed the race. If NP did not separate himself from SS during the period of time that the leaders were faltering then I don't understand how he was responsible for that collapse.

As far as the fractions are concerned they only substantiate what appears to be the leaders collapsing into the rest of the field.