15 Reasons why AP can't win The Crown

[jms62]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So you want a yes no respond to a hypothetical question? If AP hadn't won the two year award for best Juvy colt he would had to overcome a 0/22 historical statistic and theoretically be very much up against history. I would suggest that given his actual form I would not be nearly are convinced he would be successful in Belmont. History is not to be dismissed as decades of situations tend to even out many a variable.

As opposed to the 0-15 historical statistic from modern times when horses are bred-trained and campaigned differently that he is up against.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by freddymo

So you want a yes no respond to a hypothetical question? If AP hadn't won the two year award for best Juvy colt he would had to overcome a 0/22 historical statistic and theoretically be very much up against history. I would suggest that given his actual form I would not be nearly are convinced he would be successful in Belmont. History is not to be dismissed as decades of situations tend to even out many a variable.

So, if AP wins the TC, it'll probably be because 8 voters (out of 265 total votes) voted for AP instead of Texas Red. (Otherwise, AP would have had a much smaller chance to win.)

I wish I knew who to thank!

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

So, if AP wins the TC, it'll probably be because 8 voters (out of 265 total votes) voted for AP instead of Texas Red. (Otherwise, AP would have had a much smaller chance to win.)

I wish I knew who to thank!

You can spin it that way but I wouldnt chose to too.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by jms62

As opposed to the 0-15 historical statistic from modern times when horses are bred-trained and campaigned differently that he is up against.

Yes none of them were 2 year old champs. Easy Goer was but never won either Derby or Preakness

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by freddymo

Yes none of them were 2 year old champs. Easy Goer was but never won either Derby or Preakness

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I agree, Travis, except that the people saying AP has zero chance are just as bad, IMO.

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

[Arletta]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

I admit.. I am all three

[SundayStar]

i don't understand why people get in such a twist when a horse ,in this case American Pharaoh, is proclaimed by many to be a lock. if you're a gambler and looking to play against then this works in your favor because it means he will be overbet. besides that, there's nothing you can do about it so you might as well try to take advantage of it.

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by Arletta

I admit.. I am all three

DITTO...................lol

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

I guess I was thinking of these: (with emphasis added)

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

I am just saying that if he wins (he will not) I would miss hearing about the one's from 1979 to the present that lost, do you ever hear about the one's from Citation to Secretariat? I would miss reliving The Bid, Easy Goer,Smarty etc.

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Look at the Bids pp's . If he couldn't , how can this hoss?
No way he wins 4 grade I races in 8weeks. The bottom that is so necesssy to win the first 2 jewels is a hinderance in the Belmont . Fresher legs rule the day. He will be dogged like he hasn't been thus far and in the end will succumb to the pressure and the distance will get to him at the 3/16 pole . He will then falter and be off the board. One of those cases where I'll get huge against a hoss that I'll be rooting for. If he wins , he is quite deserving. But it's not gonna happen.

But maybe I'm over-reacting. Alabama Stakes does allow for "If he wins..."

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

I think everyone already knows this, but what the heck, I'll state the obvious.

When a horse is referred to as a lock, people usually will mean that the horse is a lock barring injury, really bad trips, etc...

As for your list of locks, in what universe was Sunday Silence a lock? Hell, I can make a case that Easy Goer really should have won the Preakness, as he turned his head sideways during the stretch and tried to savage Sunday Silence.

California Chrome got injured. See above on that.

The Bid and SJ both had really stupid rides.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

I don't see as many of those, and even then, they sound more like horseplayers/handicappers than haters.

Haters is a really inappropriate word for this sort of thing, but really, there really are more people on DT saying he can't or won't win than there are saying he's a lock.

And I don't really understand the problem people have with someone having an opinion that a horse is a lock.

How and why does that offend people's common sense? I don't get it.

On the flip side of your comment that the AP detractors sound more like handicappers than haters, what's that mean about people that think AP is a lock? Mindless fans?

Your posts on this topic could easily be construed as superior, smug and insulting.

[cakes44]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

You say AP is a lock

Well In My Opinion

The Bid was a lock
Sunday Silence was a lock
Smarty Jones was a lock
Big Brown was a lock
California Chrome was a lock


There is NO lock in Horse racing, especially in The Belmont, anything can and will happen, if AP wins, congrats, but BETTER horses have come to Belmont as a LOCK and went home empty handed..

There is no way in the world you thought SS and CC were locks.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

As for your list of locks, in what universe was Sunday Silence a lock? Hell, I can make a case that Easy Goer really should have won the Preakness, as he turned his head sideways during the stretch and tried to savage Sunday Silence.
.

Pat Day said that he turned Easy Goer's head to look at him; EG wasn't trying to bite SS.

http://articles.latimes.com/1989-06-...-laffit-pincay

(Really entertaining article about the 1989 Preakness and the East vs West riding styles. Note that Sunday Silence is talked about at the end like a lock for the Belmont. )

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by GenuineRisk

Pat Day said that he turned Easy Goer's head to look at him; EG wasn't trying to bite SS.

http://articles.latimes.com/1989-06-...-laffit-pincay

(Really entertaining article about the 1989 Preakness and the East vs West riding styles. Note that Sunday Silence is talked about at the end like a lock for the Belmont. )

I don't know I believe that, because if that's true, my already ultra low opinion on Pat Day as a jockey just plummeted to new impossibly low depths.

Who in their right mind would do that? If it's true, that's actually much worse than had it been EG turning his head to bite SS.

Also, I once saw a picture of that incident. It really did look like EG was trying to bite SS, but who knows.

I can't really figure out a reason why Pat Day would lie about him turning EG's head, but likewise, I can't figure out a reason why he would himself turn his head. EG had to know SS was inches from him.

[NavalOrange]

I am not sure of the significance of being a 2YO champion since it is an award that is voted on. Also I do not think the horse knows he was 2YO champion.

Hoist The Flag would have won the TC if he did not breakdown in training that spring.

[GenuineRisk]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I can't really figure out a reason why Pat Day would lie about him turning EG's head, but likewise, I can't figure out a reason why he would himself turn his head. EG had to know SS was inches from him.

I totally agree, and the article even pointed that out, but I can't figure out why Pat Day would lie about it. I mean, it's not like it was going to cost Easy Goer any employment opportunities.

For what it's worth, Day criticized himself for that ride, too. As did McGaughey.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

I guess I was thinking of these: (with emphasis added)

But maybe I'm over-reacting. Alabama Stakes does allow for "If he wins..."

I was speaking in more general terms (beyond message board, Twitter etc.), but funny... yeah, this dead week pre-Belmont brings the best out in all of us!

[FATPIANO]

Originally Posted by cakes44

There is no way in the world you thought SS and CC were locks.

me personally no. but the press and many fans thought so. besides The Bid, I thought Smarty was the one, but hey **** happens. and if the racing god's did not allow The Bid or Smarty in, They will not allow AP in either, bring on the longshots!!!

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by FATPIANO

me personally no. but the press and many fans thought so. besides The Bid, I thought Smarty was the one, but hey **** happens. and if the racing god's did not allow The Bid or Smarty in, They will not allow AP in either, bring on the longshots!!!

Hey Travis, is this an example of what you mean by horseplayer/handicapper instead of 'hater'??