Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Putting the Derby aside for a second, this is what I don't get about the dude's analysis. He talks about how so and so made "this run" and "that move" but if you completely ignore fractions, how the hell do you know if a horse was really accelerating or if the others were slowing down? For instance, sometimes in races (especially routes), a horse or two will separate from the field early, then three or four horses will catch up quickly down the backstretch. This doesn't make sense visually until you see that the fractions were something like :23 and :49. If horses get closer during a slow quarter after being far behind during a fast one, that doesn't mean they were making an early move, nor should they be given extra credit if they win with "another" move.

Super Saver :23.58 :23.96 :24.15 :26.22 :26.55 Borel C H 8.00
Ice Box :26.35 :23.94 :24.03 :24.45 :26.10 Lezcano J 11.70
Paddy O'Prado :24.40 :23.84 :24.10 :25.69 :26.89 Desormeaux K J 12.30
Make Music for Me :26.86 :24.11 :23.69 :24.01 :26.59 Rosario J 30.00
Noble's Promise :23.62 :23.50 :24.06 :26.47 :27.82 Martinez W 24.90¨
Lookin At Lucky :25.84 :24.11 :24.11 :24.62 :26.95 Gomez G K 6.30
Dublin :24.74 :24.36 :23.74 :25.29 :27.60 Thompson T J 20.00
Stately Victor :25.42 :23.85 :24.08 :24.89 :27.69 Garcia Alan 20.20
Mission Impazible :23.24 :24.31 :24.34 :26.44 :27.95 Maragh R 16.70
Devil May Care :24.13 :23.77 :24.17 :25.86 :28.57 Velazquez J R 10.90
American Lion :23.60 :24.13 :24.35 :26.08 :29.48 Flores D R 23.20
Jackson Bend :23.87 :24.19 :24.52 :25.56 :29.54 Smith M E 23.00
Discreetly Mine :23.23 :24.06 :24.42 :26.34 :30.74 Castellano J J 31.60
Dean's Kitten :24.82 :23.84 :24.35 :26.27 :30.06 Albarado R J 25.70
Conveyance :22.63 :23.53 :24.42 :27.43 :33.80 Garcia M 27.00
Homeboykris :24.30 :24.47 :24.71 :27.60 :32.52 Dominguez R A 27.00
Sidney's Candy :22.80 :23.62 :24.34 :27.84 :35.09 Talamo J 9.50
Line of David :23.14 :23.96 :24.62 :28.67 :34.35 Bejarano R 19.90
Awesome Act :25.16 :24.02 :24.20 :26.32 :35.07 Leparoux J R 11.60
Backtalk :24.31 :24.43 :24.62 :27.44 :35.58 Mena M 23.10

Judging by the fourth quarter mile It looks like the leaders were backing up and NP simply inherited the lead. I can't see anything to indicate he was the one to "collapse the race".