Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[NTamm1215]

If the argument, and I'm sure I'll be wrong, is that a horse who will ultimately attempt to rally into a race that unfolds in a layered scenario (a la most Derbies) runs into trouble as other horses are moving, it enables him to make that "last run" that often works best in said type of race.

Ice Box is almost always going to be a "last mover" type of horse and he's certainly going to need a layered race (pace that backs up, another horse that moves prematurely and/or collapses the race). I guess the only part of this argument that I'm unsure about is how we can say with certainty that he wouldn't have won the damn thing by three lengths had he been able to swing out just inside the 1/4 pole and make one sustained run down the middle. I probably can't be sure it wouldn't have worked by noting that Lookin at Lucky and Make Music For Me attempted basically that and both came up wanting.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree Nick....with all sides.

The problem The Fat Man has here is sort of what he accuses others of doing, and we all do it, in that he hates Ice Box...so he's being a little stubborn. That's all fine, but the rub is how can he be so sure that this horse isn't improving, and might be a better horse ( a lot better ) than he was a few months ago. And, further, isn't it hard to argue that he rates to relish distance at least as much as any of these horses?

Surely someone like the Fat Man, with extensive backstretch experience, has seen horses improve as they grow up.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If the argument, and I'm sure I'll be wrong, is that a horse who will ultimately attempt to rally into a race that unfolds in a layered scenario (a la most Derbies) runs into trouble as other horses are moving, it enables him to make that "last run" that often works best in said type of race.

Ice Box is almost always going to be a "last mover" type of horse and he's certainly going to need a layered race (pace that backs up, another horse that moves prematurely and/or collapses the race). I guess the only part of this argument that I'm unsure about is how we can say with certainty that he wouldn't have won the damn thing by three lengths had he been able to swing out just inside the 1/4 pole and make one sustained run down the middle. I probably can't be sure it wouldn't have worked by noting that Lookin at Lucky and Make Music For Me attempted basically that and both came up wanting.

NT

You know how we're relatively sure, Nick? Because Ice Box has never demonstrated the ability to run anything remotely resembling an against the grain race. If I were doing pace numbers, if I were CJ, for example, and I had the data to back up that if a horse runs early fractions xxx, then he's going to come home in final time yyy, you, or anyone else, probably wouldn't try too hard to refute my contention. This is because you'd probably realize that I had copious data to support my conclusion. Well, after having looked at a few million or so Fat Charts over the past few years and have noted 'regularities', I can draw the reasonable conclusion that Ice Box would not have continued on, since LaL and MMFM didn't. I don't know about MMFM but LaL is certainly a horse that has demonstrated the ability to win a race where he doesn't get a perfect trip. Ice Box hasn't. Why would I assume that Ice Box is able to put in a sustained run on Saturday when LaL couldn't?

And, it's not like I have anything in particular against IC. Here's just one of many horses that needs that xtra special trip to win a race. 99% of all horses are probably like that. Why would I assume that he runs down SS then if he doesn't have to go around a whole bunch of horses while drafting when they're driving?

I'm not making this **** up it's obvious in my charts. And, I've learned the hard way ($$$) not to go against the obvious.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Because Ice Box has never demonstrated the ability to run anything remotely resembling an against the grain race.

I don't know about MMFM but LaL is certainly a horse that has demonstrated the ability to win a race where he doesn't get a perfect trip. Ice Box hasn't. Why would I assume that Ice Box is able to put in a sustained run on Saturday when LaL couldn't?

I certainly was not an Ice Box fan going into the Derby, but his trip in his allowance win on January 18 (against Pleasant Prince) was far from "perfect." Rather than sitting in behind covered up in a short field, Velazquez moved up him four-wide into the first turn and he then pressed the pace while wide and uncovered. He essentially was able to grind out a win even though Pleasant Prince had a relatively easier (and ground-saving) trip.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I certainly was not an Ice Box fan going into the Derby, but his trip in his allowance win on January 18 (against Pleasant Prince) was far from "perfect." Rather than sitting in behind covered up in a short field, Velazquez moved up him four-wide into the first turn and he then pressed the pace while wide and uncovered. He essentially was able to grind out a win even though Pleasant Prince had a relatively easier (and ground-saving) trip.

No doubt he ran more in that race in terms of distance covered. When I looked at the chart for the race initially, I thought that PP ran the better race. Then I looked at the replay, which concurs with your assessment. It then became a question of which to give more weight to: the wide trip and, essentially, last move or the, relatively, sharp move by PP the 2nd to 3rd split, in what was a layered race. I deferred to the chart, knowing full well that horses that are inside tend to lose ground while behind horses. IB was wider by he also ran later. As it was, IB ran better than PP next time out in the FOY, which apparently proved me wrong. Then again, he was hard pressed to nose PP in the FD.

One constant in all these races: IB made the LAST move. Put him in a race where he has to do his own work and he's just not getting it done. He needs help. Quite a bit of help. So, I ask again: where's his GOOD race?

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

One constant in all these races: IB made the LAST move. Put him in a race where he has to do his own work and he's just not getting it done. He needs help. Quite a bit of help. So, I ask again: where's his GOOD race?

I've been consistently wrong about Ice Box. Despite an allowance win that I did like, I didn't fancy his chances in the Florida Derby, and I didn't like him Saturday. That being said, he's a 3YO who Zito has going in the right direction, and he's made a career out of developing such horses.

Ice Box ran well Saturday. You may be right that he will likely need "help" to win, but most horses do. Running well and having race dynamics in a horse's favor are not mutually exclusive concepts.