Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[philcski]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Phil-

Is it fair to say that moving early changed the dynamics of the race to his detriment and to the benefit of the winner?

Originally Posted by dalakhani

Let me clarify what I mean by that last post. If he waits, lets say he drafts behind the speed for another 1/16th of a mile until the top of the stretch, he can wait for the rail to open up as the speed holds on a little longer. Does the winner have to wait then or go wide? Does he get into traffic problems and possibly get into a mucky situation with paddy oprado and the rest of the oncoming stampede all of the while giving Nobles promise a clear run on a track he clearly relished?

I don't think he beats ice box either way. My point is that the race would have most likely changed.

No.

The horse stopped late, plain and simple. He couldn't get a mile and a quarter. So what, it happens. Pedigree isn't an exact science but some inferences can be made on what horses will prefer to do. I don't know how anyone can argue that when a horse gets beat by 6-7 lengths in two furlongs without any trouble that it would have been different if he waited 6 more seconds to give him everything he's got.