Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

I’ve looked at the Wednesday card and don’t really love it. I don’t want to spend much time on it.

Wednesday.

Race 1. #2 Castle Island, 4/1. Decent chance he wires, though wish Jose Ortiz was still aboard.

Race 8. #8 Notable Exchange, 12/1. This one has been looking for a pace to run into and should get it here.

Thursday.

Race 7. #2 Regalton, 8/1. It seems like George Weaver has been dominating the turf sprints at Saratoga. That’s probably because he has been, winning at a 40% clip in turf sprints this meet. The numbers are even better when you consider that 2 of his 9 starting non-winners ran 2nd and 4th to Governor Sam in the Quick Call. Similarly, he also has Silsbee and Laurice listed here. I think ML favorite Love Cervere is a very nice horse but question if she wants 5.5 furlongs as opposed to a little longer.

Race 9. #4 Maui Strong, 7/2. I’ve really liked this horse for a long time and now Irad hops aboard, making me question if there is any way we actually get 7/2 on him. I think he should be the heavy favorite so I’d love got get him at 7/2. Doesn’t look like a ton of pace signed on and he’s got a major class edge over these horses.

Well, Maui Strong is scratched which really just sort of ruins my day. Instead, I’ll take a chance on a longshot who promises to be a huge price:

Race 4. #5 Freedom Speaks, 12/1. Miguel Clement and Jena Antonucci both send out nice horses and Joe Sharp and Bill Mott send out two each in this race. So how did I end up on Heather Smullen’s mare? Well, this race doesn’t seem to have a whole lot of speed and Freedom Speaks adds Johnny V and stretches out from sprint races. I watched all of her sprints and she had some speed but she just never looked fast enough in any of her recent starts. She’s got a few figures that make her competitive here and I’d guess a pace advantage as I would expect Johnny V to send and all he’s really got to beat to the lead is Do Gooder and I don’t think Do Gooder is very fast. Her best race came at 6.5 furlongs at Kentucky Downs and she looked pretty good in her only race at a mile at Keeneland. Bullet workout last out. She’s also listed in the Ballaston Spa (ha!) and that was an overly ambitious placement but maybe an indication that she’s working really well right now.

I suspect Vive Veuve will be overbet based on the last out win against Proctor Street (who is a very nice horse) but outside of that race, none of her races really put her above the rest here. There’s a decent chance Freedom Speaks simply isn’t good enough but I think she’ll be even higher than that 12/1 morning line so I’ll take a shot on what looks like a major jockey upgrade and pace advantage.