Public will decide Monmouth's fate

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There's something really nauseating about Jersey Breds running in an allowance race for 80k.

I know the first card will not be a fair representation of what will happen but that looks like a lot of the same old Monmouth horses running for far too much money.

NT

We had a few NY-bred MSW's for $88,000 at Saratoga last summer. I remembered when I looked at Titletown Tiger's PP's and said when the hell did he earn all that money?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

We had a few NY-bred MSW's for $88,000 at Saratoga last summer. I remembered when I looked at Titletown Tiger's PP's and said when the hell did he earn all that money?

That was an off the turf race on Travers Day, if I remember correctly, so the purse was jacked up because the field stayed big and it was inflated because of the date.

I'm not trying to rain on Monmouth's parade and I'd by absolutely lying if I said I'm not going to bet their races. However, I'm unconvinced that this new setup will be the panacea of Mth and NJ racing. They do have one of the best on-track handicappers, Brad Thomas, in the country. Anyone who hasn't played Monmouth regularly before and will be now should heed his opinions.

NT

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

That was an off the turf race on Travers Day, if I remember correctly, so the purse was jacked up because the field stayed big and it was inflated because of the date.

I'm not trying to rain on Monmouth's parade and I'd by absolutely lying if I said I'm not going to bet their races. However, I'm unconvinced that this new setup will be the panacea of Mth and NJ racing. They do have one of the best on-track handicappers, Brad Thomas, in the country. Anyone who hasn't played Monmouth regularly before and will be now should heed his opinions.

NT

How dare you.

[hockey2315]

This card is crinkle --> trash can worthy.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

There's something really nauseating about Jersey Breds running in an allowance race for 80k.

I know the first card will not be a fair representation of what will happen but that looks like a lot of the same old Monmouth horses running for far too much money.

NT

I fail to understand why anyone would care what Jersey breds ran for or why they would think that the horses are running for "far too much money"? I suppose that you could say the same thing about those who complain that professional athletes make too much money or movie stars make too much money yet will still watch the games and go to the movies. Perhaps you are just nauseated that one of those owners and trainers of the jersey breds or other horses on the card may actually make some money for a change for supporting the sport? I suppose that as long as you are providing the purse money via your bets you feel obligated to be critical of purse levels but of course in this case you are only providing a portion of the purse money. I'm sure that seeing that money flow back into the coffers of Donald Trump and company would be a much more heartwarming story.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I fail to understand why anyone would care what Jersey breds ran for or why they would think that the horses are running for "far too much money"? I suppose that you could say the same thing about those who complain that professional athletes make too much money or movie stars make too much money yet will still watch the games and go to the movies. Perhaps you are just nauseated that one of those owners and trainers of the jersey breds or other horses on the card may actually make some money for a change for supporting the sport? I suppose that as long as you are providing the purse money via your bets you feel obligated to be critical of purse levels but of course in this case you are only providing a portion of the purse money. I'm sure that seeing that money flow back into the coffers of Donald Trump and company would be a much more heartwarming story.

I'm entitled to my opinion because I have a pulse.

Don't castigate me for being for open company purses being higher and state bred purses being lower. I understand what you and other people involved in the game go through and I think it's great that the owners and trainers of Jersey breds are going to cash in but realistically, should there not be a limit?

Go look at the first race and tell me if those horses should be running for 40k. As a bettor I am for competitive racing and purses going to horses that fill competitive races. Congratulations on labeling me some type of elitist/pro-rich horseplayer, but yes, I'd rather see the Decathlon and Elkwood for 250k and the Jersey bred races for half of what they are.

NT

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

Field size generally trumps quality, unless you're talking about big guns and major stakes. Timing and exposure (post time) trumps quality as well, although not as effectively.

I think you can look at it this way... Imagine there's 10 minutes to post at Belmont, and 16 minutes to post at Monmouth. Belmont is a field of 9, Monmouth is maxed-out at 14. Are people going to skip the Belmont race and play Monmouth? No, they'll play both, just like they always have.

Here's what's escaping most of the racing GURUS:

MTH is operating, essentially, thurs, friday, saturday, and sunday

which is basically when MOST other tracks are also running

MOREVER

they're running at the same time that a whole bunch of tracks are

Now, I don't know where these GURUS are residing but if they think that HIGHER QUALITY HORSES and LARGER FIELDS will make a significant difference, they're mistaken. Nobody from NY is going to make the drive to MTH and MTH will be just ONE MORE track that anyone playing multiple tracks will have to deal with. When it comes to betting, better horses and larger fields (or better purses) doesn't NECESSARILY translate to MISMATCHES (especially on SPEED FAVORING bullring like tracks). I could give a **** how good the horses are; what I'm concerned with is finding races where I have an advantage. And, I suspect, anyone playing the game seriously is looking for the same thing. Moreover, anyone who is not computer generating plays will be forced to either ADD MTH to the HIGH NUMBER of tracks they already play or just IGNORE THEM. I'm going with the latter. Frankly, there are much better betting options at CHEAPER but FAIR tracks elsewhere.

You'd think that tracks would get a ****in clue and spread out their days/time of operation. I'm overloaded with 10 or so tracks on weekends, during the day, and basically play with myself the rest of the week because there are no tracks operating.

MTH must be counting on ON TRACK handle. Which means they're still in 1970's/1980's mode.

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm entitled to my opinion because I have a pulse.

Don't castigate me for being for open company purses being higher and state bred purses being lower. I understand what you and other people involved in the game go through and I think it's great that the owners and trainers of Jersey breds are going to cash in but realistically, should there not be a limit?

Go look at the first race and tell me if those horses should be running for 40k. As a bettor I am for competitive racing and purses going to horses that fill competitive races. Congratulations on labeling me some type of elitist/pro-rich horseplayer, but yes, I'd rather see the Decathlon and Elkwood for 250k and the Jersey bred races for half of what they are.

NT

Who said anything about not having an opinion? I just want to know why you think there should be some imaginary ceiling? Like you get less enjoyment out of cashing a ticket or more frustration out of losing a bet with in your view an exorbitant purse. You do realize that there is a reason in every horseman/track contract there is a clause that determines the % split between overnight and stakes right? You can take offense all you like but I asked a simple question.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's what's escaping most of the racing GURUS:

MTH is operating, essentially, thurs, friday, saturday, and sunday

which is basically when MOST other tracks are also running

MOREVER

they're running at the same time that a whole bunch of tracks are

Now, I don't know where these GURUS are residing but if they think that HIGHER QUALITY HORSES and LARGER FIELDS will make a significant difference, they're mistaken. Nobody from NY is going to make the drive to MTH and MTH will be just ONE MORE track that anyone playing multiple tracks will have to deal with. When it comes to betting, better horses and larger fields (or better purses) doesn't NECESSARILY translate to MISMATCHES (especially on SPEED FAVORING bullring like tracks). I could give a **** how good the horses are; what I'm concerned with is finding races where I have an advantage. And, I suspect, anyone playing the game seriously is looking for the same thing. Moreover, anyone who is not computer generating plays will be forced to either ADD MTH to the HIGH NUMBER of tracks they already play or just IGNORE THEM. I'm going with the latter. Frankly, there are much better betting options at CHEAPER but FAIR tracks elsewhere.

You'd think that tracks would get a ****in clue and spread out their days/time of operation. I'm overloaded with 10 or so tracks on weekends, during the day, and basically play with myself the rest of the week because there are no tracks operating.
MTH must be counting on ON TRACK handle. Which means they're still in 1970's/1980's mode.

Colonial is trying a new schedule this year to try to take advantage of this - and I think they settled their ADW issues!

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

Who said anything about not having an opinion? I just want to know why you think there should be some imaginary ceiling? Like you get less enjoyment out of cashing a ticket or more frustration out of losing a bet with in your view an exorbitant purse. You do realize that there is a reason in every horseman/track contract there is a clause that determines the % split between overnight and stakes right? You can take offense all you like but I asked a simple question.

Jersey breds have been running for increased purses for years. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I'm almost certain a Jersey bred N1X went for more money last year than an open N1X did at Monmouth. If Monmouth's initiative, with this influx of cash into the purse account is to increase field size which will in turn increase handle then why are the Jersey bred races kicked up so much? Those races generally drew large fields anyway. Now they're expecting the wagering public to swoon over fields of 50k Jersey bred maiden claimers running for a 40k purse?

State bred programs have done some good. I know that you and other people on this board have taken advantage of them in various states. I might be in the minority, but I would prefer open company races carrying larger purses, not the dollar for dollar match that Jersey bred N1X and MSW are vs. open N1X and MSW at Monmouth. Might I be wrong? Sure.

Maybe instead of making sure the J-Breds are so well taken care of the NJSEA can throw some of that coin back at the seasonal employees who took a 40% pay cut this year.

NT

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Jersey breds have been running for increased purses for years. I don't have the numbers in front of me but I'm almost certain a Jersey bred N1X went for more money last year than an open N1X did at Monmouth. If Monmouth's initiative, with this influx of cash into the purse account is to increase field size which will in turn increase handle then why are the Jersey bred races kicked up so much? Those races generally drew large fields anyway. Now they're expecting the wagering public to swoon over fields of 50k Jersey bred maiden claimers running for a 40k purse?

State bred programs have done some good. I know that you and other people on this board have taken advantage of them in various states. I might be in the minority, but I would prefer open company races carrying larger purses, not the dollar for dollar match that Jersey bred N1X and MSW are vs. open N1X and MSW at Monmouth. Might I be wrong? Sure.

Maybe instead of making sure the J-Breds are so well taken care of the NJSEA can throw some of that coin back at the seasonal employees who took a 40% pay cut this year.

NT

I guess you have never read one of my rants against statebred programs...
The abundance of NYbred races is something I have pointed out many times when discussing the deterioration of NY racing. They have there place but have been relied on too heavily IMO.
It really has nothing to do with them being Jerseybreds. It has to do with the thought that you have that seasonal employees or someone else "deserves" the money more. It is the horsemans money by contract, the tracks just dole it out. I'm sure you realize that as the role of politicians increases in the sport, things like suporting jobs (local horseman, breeders, etc) and local products including horses is a tradeoff. As a matter of fact I would guarantee you that there is a stipulation in the contract that mandates the number of races and purses paid out to statebreds. Would it be better to cut the purses in half and run twice as many NJB races?

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I guess you have never read one of my rants against statebred programs...
The abundance of NYbred races is something I have pointed out many times when discussing the deterioration of NY racing. They have there place but have been relied on too heavily IMO.
It really has nothing to do with them being Jerseybreds. It has to do with the thought that you have that seasonal employees or someone else "deserves" the money more. It is the horsemans money by contract, the tracks just dole it out. I'm sure you realize that as the role of politicians increases in the sport, things like suporting jobs (local horseman, breeders, etc) and local products including horses is a tradeoff. As a matter of fact I would guarantee you that there is a stipulation in the contract that mandates the number of races and purses paid out to statebreds. Would it be better to cut the purses in half and run twice as many NJB races?

Basically then we're lamenting the same thing. I know that the jobs are not applicable but did want to mention in the entire discussion that there are a lot of employees getting shafted.

The NY bred purses have been reduced recently. Are there still too many NY bred races? Sure. I've believed for quite some time that the proliferation of the La Bred program has kept FG from becoming a premier winter signal.

I guess my issue is that you have horses that are worth X amount, who would run for X amount and are actually running for X times 5. Is it a big deal? Not really, but 80k for Jersey bred MSWs is an awful lot. If I start rolling quarters now and turning in cans do you think you could find one for me and you to claim?

NT

[Cannon Shell]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Basically then we're lamenting the same thing. I know that the jobs are not applicable but did want to mention in the entire discussion that there are a lot of employees getting shafted.

The NY bred purses have been reduced recently. Are there still too many NY bred races? Sure. I've believed for quite some time that the proliferation of the La Bred program has kept FG from becoming a premier winter signal.

I guess my issue is that you have horses that are worth X amount, who would run for X amount and are actually running for X times 5. Is it a big deal? Not really, but 80k for Jersey bred MSWs is an awful lot. If I start rolling quarters now and turning in cans do you think you could find one for me and you to claim?

NT

I agree that 80k is kind of crazy for that class of horse but there are reasons beyond the obvious why they are as we have discussed. I thought that 18k was a lot for kickin n screamins race yesterday based on the quality or lack of quality. But a lot of that is because we have been conditioned to smaller purses that were the norm for so long. Higher purses will lead to better quality over the long haul though in Monmouths case who knows how long this will play out. believe me there are a lot of people who have asked the same question about Jersey breds and if you could guarantee that those purses would be in effect for say 10 years you would see a definite increase in the quality of NJ breds. The quality of (non-Strawbridge) PA breds will dramatically increase over the next few years because people have sent a whole lot of pretty good mares there in foal to good stallions. The program was almost dormant but now the Breeders awards and purse incentives are so good that a lot of KY breeders are dropping a significant amount of their horses there. It is hard to see now but it is coming. That doesn't mean that Philly park is going to become Belmont but better horses does equal better races. Naturally the takeout issues among others still remain there but the racing has gotten better and should improve as people look to run the better bred PA breds there for the incentives.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Here's what's escaping most of the racing GURUS:

MTH is operating, essentially, thurs, friday, saturday, and sunday

which is basically when MOST other tracks are also running

MOREVER

they're running at the same time that a whole bunch of tracks are

Now, I don't know where these GURUS are residing but if they think that HIGHER QUALITY HORSES and LARGER FIELDS will make a significant difference, they're mistaken. Nobody from NY is going to make the drive to MTH and MTH will be just ONE MORE track that anyone playing multiple tracks will have to deal with. When it comes to betting, better horses and larger fields (or better purses) doesn't NECESSARILY translate to MISMATCHES (especially on SPEED FAVORING bullring like tracks). I could give a **** how good the horses are; what I'm concerned with is finding races where I have an advantage. And, I suspect, anyone playing the game seriously is looking for the same thing. Moreover, anyone who is not computer generating plays will be forced to either ADD MTH to the HIGH NUMBER of tracks they already play or just IGNORE THEM. I'm going with the latter. Frankly, there are much better betting options at CHEAPER but FAIR tracks elsewhere.

You'd think that tracks would get a ****in clue and spread out their days/time of operation. I'm overloaded with 10 or so tracks on weekends, during the day, and basically play with myself the rest of the week because there are no tracks operating.

MTH must be counting on ON TRACK handle. Which means they're still in 1970's/1980's mode.

Larger fields and higher quality horses have a direct correlation to increased handle. It's been proven time and again. There's a good reason for that... if you think hard you might be able to figure out why.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I'm entitled to my opinion because I have a pulse.

Don't castigate me for being for open company purses being higher and state bred purses being lower. I understand what you and other people involved in the game go through and I think it's great that the owners and trainers of Jersey breds are going to cash in but realistically, should there not be a limit?

Go look at the first race and tell me if those horses should be running for 40k. As a bettor I am for competitive racing and purses going to horses that fill competitive races. Congratulations on labeling me some type of elitist/pro-rich horseplayer, but yes, I'd rather see the Decathlon and Elkwood for 250k and the Jersey bred races for half of what they are.

NT

Why not? Would you prefer they run for $20k just like they always have, so the owner can win a race and still lose money on the year?

What type of fields would the Decathlon and Elkwood get for $250K? Answer: the same ones.

[Travis Stone]

Originally Posted by philcski

Larger fields and higher quality horses have a direct correlation to increased handle. It's been proven time and again. There's a good reason for that... if you think hard you might be able to figure out why.

The question is whether or not it's significant enough, but then you have to say that every little bit helps.

When you take-out the data movers, such as stakes races and marquee events, and look at the day-in and day-out races, field size trumps everything.

Here is a screenshot from Excel of average handle data at Keeneland. These figures do not include multi-race wagers; only the WPS, Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta data are repsented as they are the best indicators of a race's strength in the pools. No races with purses > $75k are included. The figures are based on the pool size of all the wagers.



I was perplexed by the 11 horse field size, so I drilled down to that data a bit more. The graph shows that purse (quality) was not a significant mover in this case and the disparity can attributed to a lot of things, possibly including:

* Race placement relative to other big events/races happening at or around the same time (post times)
* Heavy, heavy favorite, which deters exotic wagerers
* Race placement on the card (later in the card typically handles better)
* Randomness (ultimately, this is a small sample)



In my experience being a nerd when it comes to racing handle and following data, field size is the big mover. Major signals, particularly Belmont, are more immune to field size fluctuations due to the strength of their overall brand and product (a 5 horse field at Bel will always out handle a typical 5 horse field at say Louisiana Downs, Arlington or Prairie Meadows etc). When Belmont is able to put 14 horses on the track, however, look out - big handle coming-up.

Secondly, horseplayers will bet anything they have an edge on, regardless of quality. If any random horseplayer spotted a running line he liked, it doesn't matter if the horse is 10-1 in a $5k claimer at Presque Isle or 10-1 in a $5k claimer at Churchill - it's game on.

Third, the whole argument about quality is tough because naturally there is going to be a separation of ability in a sport like horse racing, and there needs to be a place for horses on the bottom. Every track would love to have 10 races everyday with nothing but N1X's, N2X's and stakes... unfortunately, it's not feasible.

Ultimately it comes down to a premise such as this: If you're a player who puts decent money through the windows (you aren't a $2 across the board, or $2 boxer... nor are we talking about big win bettors, as they're rare), and in 10 minutes there is a 7 horse allowance coming up, and right at the same time, a 12 horse claimer... where are you inclined to play? The majority of people go the 12 horse claimer, as that's where the money is.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Travis Stone

The question is whether or not it's significant enough, but then you have to say that every little bit helps.

When you take-out the data movers, such as stakes races and marquee events, and look at the day-in and day-out races, field size trumps everything.

Here is a screenshot from Excel of average handle data at Keeneland. These figures do not include multi-race wagers; only the WPS, Exacta, Trifecta and Superfecta data are repsented as they are the best indicators of a race's strength in the pools. No races with purses > $75k are included. The figures are based on the pool size of all the wagers.



I was perplexed by the 11 horse field size, so I drilled down to that data a bit more. The graph shows that purse (quality) was not a significant mover in this case and the disparity can attributed to a lot of things, possibly including:

* Race placement relative to other big events/races happening at or around the same time (post times)
* Heavy, heavy favorite, which deters exotic wagerers
* Race placement on the card (later in the card typically handles better)
* Randomness (ultimately, this is a small sample)



In my experience being a nerd when it comes to racing handle and following data, field size is the big mover. Major signals, particularly Belmont, are more immune to field size fluctuations due to the strength of their overall brand and product (a 5 horse field at Bel will always out handle a typical 5 horse field at say Louisiana Downs, Arlington or Prairie Meadows etc). When Belmont is able to put 14 horses on the track, however, look out - big handle coming-up.

Secondly, horseplayers will bet anything they have an edge on, regardless of quality. If any random horseplayer spotted a running line he liked, it doesn't matter if the horse is 10-1 in a $5k claimer at Presque Isle or 10-1 in a $5k claimer at Churchill - it's game on.

Third, the whole argument about quality is tough because naturally there is going to be a separation of ability in a sport like horse racing, and there needs to be a place for horses on the bottom. Every track would love to have 10 races everyday with nothing but N1X's, N2X's and stakes... unfortunately, it's not feasible.

Ultimately it comes down to a premise such as this: If you're a player who puts decent money through the windows (you aren't a $2 across the board, or $2 boxer... nor are we talking about big win bettors, as they're rare), and in 10 minutes there is a 7 horse allowance coming up, and right at the same time, a 12 horse claimer... where are you inclined to play? The majority of people go the 12 horse claimer, as that's where the money is.

Great work Travis.

As for your question about the 11 horse fields' data point falling off a bit when you'd expect a number around $900k, sample size probably has the most to do with it. What was your sample size for the other points?

[randallscott35]

On the other hand, the rising financial tide could lift many ships. You don't have to win a lot of races when low-end $5,000 claimers run for $30,000 and maiden special weights are worth $75,000.

"I think it's going to help me," said Tim Kelly, who has been training at Monmouth for 24 years. "It's going to bring me the better quality stock that we'll have to get, or we won't be able to survive. It's either going to be feast or famine. It's going to help me or kill me.

"It's going to make racing more difficult, but the big guys can't win them all."

Kelly takes a realistic approach. At these purse levels, just hitting the board can be lucrative.

"If you can get a piece of these big pots, it's not a bad thing," Kelly said.

Monmouth further cushioned the blow by paying every starter in every race at least $1,500. Even when they lose, nobody goes home empty-handed.

[randallscott35]

Once again great show by Steve. Getting a car full of trainers who are excited about the prospects here in Jersey warms my cold cold heart. Come one come all. Full fields for real money. And as Anderson said, this is the future.

[Kingturf]

I will play Monmouth Park for the season, two points I would like to make; Finally a program card besides Belmont that will have quality races and on real dirt! My second point is; this is a known fact for most people who play Gulfstream Park. Monmouth and Gulfstream Park uses the same dirt composite. Look at many past performance of horses who raced at both tracks. If they fire at GP, they fire at Monmouth.

And one day in the future when Hialeah Park re-opens for TB's this will hold true for Hialeah and Belmont Park.