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  #1  
Old 08-07-2010, 02:35 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Default Smart Move By Valdivia

Jose Valdivia was always in the same spot in the jockey standings in Southern California. Every single meet, he was always 15th or 16th in the standings. He's not a bad jockey but there are about 15 guys out here that are better than him.

He won 4 races in the first 4 months of 2010 out here. Then he moved back east to ride at Delaware and Monmouth. In 3 months, he has alread won over 40 races on the east coast. I'd say he made a good move. I think winning over 40 races in 3 months is slightly better than winning 4 races in 4 months. I'm sure he wishes he made the move a long time ago.
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  #2  
Old 08-07-2010, 03:12 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
I'm sure he wishes he made the move a long time ago.
How many guys riding at racino dumps with similar "ability" - if you can call it that - end up later regretting that they didn't try to make it at a major circuit like Valdivia did?

How many, at best, meat and potato jocks wish they could have ridden excellent horses like Big Jag, Val Royal, Aldebaran, Heat Haze, Singletary, Rail Trip to wins in major races?

He's 6th in the standings at Delaware where the meets leading rider is Anna Rosie Napravnick. I agree that it was without a doubt the right move to make and he's making more money now ... but he got over for a long, long time in So. Cal.

Think of a guy like Kerwin John ... he rode regularly at Mountaineer Park in 2003 and was a 3% jockey there. You could have taken a poll of trainers asking to rate the top 20 jockeys at MNR and no one would have named Kerwin. The very next year - he's 8th in the standings at Del Mar and has more wins and a higher win percentage than a very accomplished jockey like Mike Smith.

He goes from a 3% win percentage and having no luck finding a decent mount anywhere in West Virginia in 2003 - to having three mounts on the Breeders Cup card in 2004. One of them, Island Fashion, was like 5/1 or so in the $2 million BC Distaff off her win in the Lady's Secret last out.
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  #3  
Old 08-07-2010, 03:31 PM
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Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
How many guys riding at racino dumps with similar "ability" - if you can call it that - end up later regretting that they didn't try to make it at a major circuit like Valdivia did?

How many, at best, meat and potato jocks wish they could have ridden excellent horses like Big Jag, Val Royal, Aldebaran, Heat Haze, Singletary, Rail Trip to wins in major races?

He's 6th in the standings at Delaware where the meets leading rider is Anna Rosie Napravnick. I agree that it was without a doubt the right move to make and he's making more money now ... but he got over for a long, long time in So. Cal.

Think of a guy like Kerwin John ... he rode regularly at Mountaineer Park in 2003 and was a 3% jockey there. You could have taken a poll of trainers asking to rate the top 20 jockeys at MNR and no one would have named Kerwin. The very next year - he's 8th in the standings at Del Mar and has more wins and a higher win percentage than a very accomplished jockey like Mike Smith.

He goes from a 3% win percentage and having no luck finding a decent mount anywhere in West Virginia in 2003 - to having three mounts on the Breeders Cup card in 2004. One of them, Island Fashion, was like 5/1 or so in the $2 million BC Distaff off her win in the Lady's Secret last out.
Maybe you can be an agent for him.
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  #4  
Old 08-07-2010, 03:37 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
How many guys riding at racino dumps with similar "ability" - if you can call it that - end up later regretting that they didn't try to make it at a major circuit like Valdivia did?

How many, at best, meat and potato jocks wish they could have ridden excellent horses like Big Jag, Val Royal, Aldebaran, Heat Haze, Singletary, Rail Trip to wins in major races?

He's 6th in the standings at Delaware where the meets leading rider is Anna Rosie Napravnick. I agree that it was without a doubt the right move to make and he's making more money now ... but he got over for a long, long time in So. Cal.

Think of a guy like Kerwin John ... he rode regularly at Mountaineer Park in 2003 and was a 3% jockey there. You could have taken a poll of trainers asking to rate the top 20 jockeys at MNR and no one would have named Kerwin. The very next year - he's 8th in the standings at Del Mar and has more wins and a higher win percentage than a very accomplished jockey like Mike Smith.

He goes from a 3% win percentage and having no luck finding a decent mount anywhere in West Virginia in 2003 - to having three mounts on the Breeders Cup card in 2004. One of them, Island Fashion, was like 5/1 or so in the $2 million BC Distaff off her win in the Lady's Secret last out.
I'm not saying that it wasn't worth a try for Valdivia to ride in Southern California. You give it a shot for a few years and if it doesn't work out then you go to a smaller circuit. Jose just wasted too many years out here. He had been struglling for a really long time. He had been riding out here for at least the last 10 years or so. I don't think he was ever in the top 15 out here for the last 5 years.

I don't know what your point was about Kerwin John. Kerwin John can't win a race out here. If a guy is struggling at Monmouth, he has no chance to make it in Southern California. He could get lucky for a short period of time but it's not going to last.

Southern California has always been the major league. If a guy can't make it in the minor league, he's not going to make it in the majors. When in a guy from the majors goes to the minors, he will usually do well. There are several examples of this. M. C. Baze is 2nd leading rider at Arlington right now. I think Corey Nakatani was leading rider at Oaklawn this year.

Valdivia can't be leading rider at Delaware because he doesn't ride there enough. He's splitting his time between Delaware and Monmouth. He has even ridden at Belmont and Philly Park. He's won about 45 races in the past 3 months compared to winning 4 races in 4 months on the west coast. This is a case of a guy going from the major leagues to the minor leagues so he will obviously do much better against the much easier competition back east.
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  #5  
Old 08-07-2010, 03:42 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Maybe you can be an agent for him.
Kerwin was 0 for the entire meet at PID last year.

The story goes ... and I don't know how true this is ... but it's what I heard from a couple of Mountaineer Park trainers when I asked them how a guy can go from not being able to crack the top 35 in the standing at MNR one year - to being in the top 8 at Del Mar the next year and having live Breeders Cup mounts ...

They told me that when Kerwin went to So. Cal, he got hooked up with a big husky long time security guard that would work the stable gates .. and a lot of trainers got to know him and like him over the years.

He became a new jocks agent, and a lot of different trainers helped him out and looked to find a cheaper live one for Kerwin and him and they took off and had a big year together.
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  #6  
Old 08-07-2010, 03:43 PM
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I don't think he was ever in the top 15 out here for the last 5 years.
He was 6th in the standings at Hollywood Parks summer meet in 2007.
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  #7  
Old 08-07-2010, 03:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
I think Corey Nakatani was leading rider at Oaklawn this year.
Terry Thompson was leading rider at Oaklawn.
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  #8  
Old 08-07-2010, 03:51 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
He was 6th in the standings at Hollywood Parks summer meet in 2007.
That is one meet. How did he do at the other 24 meets the last 5 years in Southern California?
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  #9  
Old 08-07-2010, 03:54 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Terry Thompson was leading rider at Oaklawn.
That is the point. There are only a handful of great jockeys out there and most of them are in Southern California. If you're 10th in the standings out here, you can be leading rider or close to the leading rider at most other tracks.
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  #10  
Old 08-07-2010, 04:01 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
That is one meet. How did he do at the other 24 meets the last 5 years out here?
I agree with you that he's a total bum ... I was just correcting your mistake.

He finished 10th at Hollywood's Fall Meet in 2008 even though he only had 86 mounts to Bejarno's 241. He was tied for 5th with Rosario in win percentage at that meet, only Bejarano, Gomez, Espinoza, and Baze were higher.

It's all about opportunity. When these guys without much ability finally fall out of favor - they tank. Just as a guy without an ounce of ability will put up big surprising numbers if they stumble into opportunity.
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  #11  
Old 08-07-2010, 04:08 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
I agree with you that he's a total bum ... I was just correcting your mistake.

He finished 10th at Hollywood's Fall Meet in 2008 even though he only had 86 mounts to Bejarno's 241. He was tied for 5th with Rosario in win percentage at that meet, only Bejarano, Gomez, Espinoza, and Baze were higher.

It's all about opportunity. When these guys without much ability finally fall out of favor - they tank. Just as a guy without an ounce of ability will put up big surprising numbers if they stumble into opportunity.
He's not a bum. He's just not in the top 20 best jockeys in the country. He's probably in the top 30 best jockeys in the country. I would hardly call that being a "bum". If you're in the top 30 best in the entire country in any sport, I would say you're doing pretty well.
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  #12  
Old 08-07-2010, 04:17 PM
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In terms of ability - the difference between being the 8th best jockey in the country and the 88th best jockey is pretty minimal. Opportunity is what separates them - that's why the jockey factor is the most overrated handicapping factor there is IMO.
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  #13  
Old 08-07-2010, 04:27 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
In terms of ability - the difference between being the 8th best jockey in the country and the 88th best jockey is pretty minimal. Opportunity is what separates them - that's why the jockey factor is the most overrated handicapping factor there is IMO.
You were knocking Martin Garcia the other day. Just out of curiousity, if you put Martin Garcia on the best horse 100 times, how many times do you think he would win the race. And then let's compare that to the person you think is the best jockey in the country. Who do you think the best jockey is and how many tiimes do you think that jock would win if you put him on the best horse 100 times?
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  #14  
Old 08-07-2010, 04:54 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
You were knocking Martin Garcia the other day. Just out of curiousity, if you put Martin Garcia on the best horse 100 times, how many times do you think he would win the race. And then let's compare that to the person you think is the best jockey in the country. Who do you think the best jockey is and how many tiimes do you think that jock would win if you put him on the best horse 100 times?
You would have to be a lot more specific. By putting him on "the best horse" 100 times .. do you mean a lukewarm favorite in a wide-open 12 horse turf race - or do you mean Zenyatta against the nags today?

Do you mean an after the fact conclusion of who the best horse was - or a pre-race conclusion?

On a one-dimensional speed horse - all jockey's are prone to lose a race at the break every once and a while like Cost Of Freedom did last week. Some do it more often than others .. but a poor break on a speed horse is the most common way to get "the best horse" soundly beat.

Garcia's thing is to get a clear wide trip - and if his horse is much the best he will win everytime assuming he breaks well.
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Old 08-07-2010, 04:59 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
You would have to be a lot more specific. By putting him on "the best horse" 100 times .. do you mean a lukewarm favorite in a wide-open 12 horse turf race - or do you mean Zenyatta against the nags today?

Do you mean an after the fact conclusion of who the best horse was - or a pre-race conclusion?

On a one-dimensional speed horse - all jockey's are prone to lose a race at the break every once and a while like Cost Of Freedom did last week. Some do it more often than others .. but a poor break on a speed horse is the most common way to get "the best horse" soundly beat.

Garcia's thing is to get a clear wide trip - and if his horse is much the best he will win everytime assuming he breaks well.
I'm talking about your average race. If you took 100 random races, which would obviously include sprints, routes, grass races etc. and you put him on the best horse in every race, how many would he win? I'm talking about an after the fact conclusion.
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  #16  
Old 08-07-2010, 05:02 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
I'm talking about your average race. If you took 100 random races, which would obviously include sprints, routes, grass races etc. and you put him on the best horse in every race, how many would he win? I'm talking about an after the fact conclusion.
Assuming the weights are level and he breaks well - he would get the best Ragozin and Thoro-Graph sheet figure every single time. Of course, there will be times in those turf races with bigger fields where he will finish 4th despite running a Rag figure a length or more faster than the rest of the field.
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  #17  
Old 08-07-2010, 05:17 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Assuming the weights are level and he breaks well - he would get the best Ragozin and Thoro-Graph sheet figure every single time. Of course, there will be times in those turf races with bigger fields where he will finish 4th despite running a Rag figure a length or more faster than the rest of the field.
That is what I'm asking you. It doesn't do you any good to have the best sheet number if you lose the race.

Here is what I'm trying to ask you. I assume that you think Dominguez is the best jockey because you are usually very complimentary of him. Let's say that Dominguez wins 100 races out of his next 500 mounts. If you would have put Garcia on those 100 horses that won instead of Dominguez, how many of those races would Garcia have won?
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Old 08-07-2010, 05:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
That is what I'm asking you. It doesn't do you any good to have the best sheet number if you lose the race.

Here is what I'm trying to ask you. I assume that you think Dominguez is the best jockey because you are usually very complimentary of him. Let's say that Dominguez wins 100 races out of his next 500 mounts. If you put Garcia on those 100 winners instead of Dominguez, how many of those races would Garcia win?
Outside of maybe turf routes, I would not rate Dominguez the best jockey in the country.

Guys like Rosario, Dominguez, Gomez etc. are a different type of rider because they save ground. A lot of the horses they win narrowly on Martin Garcia would lose on. There is certainly going to be sometimes where they get one trapped or shuffled and miss - where Garcia would have won by going wide, wide.
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  #19  
Old 08-07-2010, 05:34 PM
Rupert Pupkin Rupert Pupkin is offline
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Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS View Post
Outside of maybe turf routes, I would not rate Dominguez the best jockey in the country.

Guys like Rosario, Dominguez, Gomez etc. are a different type of rider because they save ground. A lot of the horses they win narrowly on Martin Garcia would lose on. There is certainly going to be sometimes where they get one trapped or shuffled and miss - where Garcia would have won by going wide, wide.
I'm surprised that you, a person that likes to try to quantify things, can't seem to even make an atempt to quantify the significance of jockeys.

I will give you my opinion. I can try to quantify it. First off, I think Garcia is a top rider, so I won't use him as an example since we disagree about him. Let's compare Joel Rosario to Martin Pedroza. We both think that Rosario is a great rider. I think that if you put Rosario on the best horse 100 times, he would probably win around 95-97 times. If you put Martin Pedroza on the best horse 100 times, I think he probably wins 90-92 times.

Last edited by Rupert Pupkin : 08-07-2010 at 05:46 PM.
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  #20  
Old 08-07-2010, 05:45 PM
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The Indomitable DrugS The Indomitable DrugS is offline
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Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin View Post
We both think that Rosario is a great rider. I think that if you put Rosario on the best horse 100 times, he would probably win around 95-97 times. If you put Martin Pedroza on the best horse 100 times, I think he probably wins 90-92 times.
I wouldn't disagree at all on the margin of a just few points between the two - however, I would disagree that the best horse wins a race over 90% of the time. I think it's less than that.

However, there's a lot more to being a top jockey than just winning when you have the best horse. Jara did that well.

Rosario can steal some - or get better placings than he should - by adjusting to the pace and placing his horse accordingly and saving ground.

Put Martin Garcia on Calvin Borel's last five Kentucky Derby mounts .. where do the five finish? Put Garcia on Make Music For Me in this years Derby and where does he finish?
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