With preparations complete, attentions turn to wagering strategies for Cup Weekend. Before that, a review of last year is yet again in order. It’s noteworthy I think, that favorites in 2008 exited the Cup 14/4-3-2-3. Only Sixties Icon (Marathon) and Well Armed (Dirt Mile) failed to get into the superfecta among horses that left the gate as the public choice. In addition, an assorted combination of at least two of the first, second and/or third choices were in supers in 9 of the 14 Cup events, and in the trifecta an astounding 7 times in the 14 races.

In other words, don’t be so quick to blanket assume that the Cup is a bomb-in-every-slot free for all, because in many instances, keying off well bet candidates that have high expectations for success can be highly profitable. When 5-1 third choice Forever Together and 7-2 second choice Wait a While sandwiched 49-1 Sealy Hill in the 2008 Filly and Mare Turf, the tri came back $996 for $1. Also enforcing the “it only takes one price horse” theory, was the Early P4 on Cup Saturday. Players who had Desert Code in the Turf Sprint at 36-1, only needed to find 6-1 Albertus Maximus, 3-2 Goldikova and 7-2 Midshipman to cash for $6,300.

Super fans should also take note of the bonus payouts when short prices fill the top slots and a bomb anchors the quad. Donativum ($5.80), Westphalia ($3.30) and Coronet of a Baron ($6.20) were 1-2-3 in the Juvenile Turf last year for a modest $153 triple. But including 29-1 City Style as your 4th resulted in a $3,025 superfecta for $1. Similarly, the three most obvious horses in the ’08 Filly & Mare Sprint — Ventura, Indian Blessing, Zaftig — brought back $48 as a tri but $733 with not-hard-to-fathom Miraculous Miss (38-1) fourth.

So, in advance of Friday and Saturday’s cornucopia of wagering, be sure to remember that the “best” horses are still going to heavily factor in many slots of each of the Cup exotics… Sprinkle in plenty of pricey longshots that you believe are going to run well, and you should be able to catch the one or two bonanza payoffs that make Breeders’ Cup Weekend profitable and fun. Remember not to get down on yourself if you miss early. It’s a long two days with tons of opportunities. And if things don’t go great, the Gr. II Las Palmas nightcap Friday is an appealing ‘get out’ chance!

I hope you’ve been enjoying At the Races coverage from Santa Anita, and have a great Day 1 of the Breeders’ Cup!

BREEDERS’ CUP – OAK TREE AT SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Royal Punisher 5-1 10th
Best Value: #6 Deal Breaker 8-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Joshua’s Dream 8-1 4th
Super Add: #7 On Fire 9-2 3rd

2nd: OC/C, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Miss McCall 6-1 WON
Best Value: #2 She’s Very Rare 20-1 10th
Next Best: #5 Halfaponderosa 12-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Barbara’s Love 9-2 4th

3rd: 2nd Breeders’ Cup Marathon, 3+, 14f (P6, P3, Jockey Challenge, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Father Time 3-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Cloudy’s Knight 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Nite Light 4-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Man of Iron 8-1 WON

4th: 2nd Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Coolmore Euro Lillie Langtry has starlet look and moniker, but doesn’t strike fear either. Adored Romans’ Tapitsfly from first glance this summer, and she’s done nothing wrong here, but Pletcher-Pompa Speightstown miss has best chance if 7th and 8th panel suits. Shuman bomb Potosina looks versatile and ran top flight race over tough tundra and figures to save ground all the way..

Most Likely: #4 Rose Catherine 8-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Tapitsfly 8-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Lillie Langtry 3-1 8th
Super Add: #1 Potosina 20-1 7th

<$100 P4 Play:

1: 5-6-7-9
2: 2-11
3: 3-4-5-9
4: 4-8-10

4x2x4x3 = $96

$1 Pick 4 (6-11-9-10) 4 Correct Paid $3,450.50

5th: 26th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

One of the weekend’s most interesting races as well as a juicy wagerfest. Want to use everyone exiting the Alcibiades and Breen-Hall filly Bickersons who looks like she may explode every time she steps foot on the track. Looking ahead, division has makings of some serious competition as this entire group looks like a roomful of Tri Delts after you’ve knocked back 3-4 frosties..

Most Likely: #4 Beautician 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Bickersons 20-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Negligee 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #8 She Be Wild 8-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Zilva 30-1 7th

6th: 11th Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf, F&M-3+, 10f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Amazing day of opportunities continue for Augustin Stables (George Strawbridge Jr.) as another defending Cup winner tries for a repeat. She has been more beatable this season though, and enigmatic Mott mare DYNAFORCE merits respect while offering value. Juddmonte, who wins this event like clockwork, sends solid pair as well..

Most Likely: #2 Forever Together 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Dynaforce 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Midday 4-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Visit 10-1 4th

7th: 3rd Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Short but nice cast facing the defending champ who comes into this as good or better than a year ago. Would be a wonderful tonic for the ailing Bobby Frankel..

Most Likely: #9 VENTURA 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Sara Louise 9-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Informed Decision 5-2 WON
Super Add: #8 Seventh Street 4-1 8th

8th: 26th Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (Classic-Distaff Double, DD, Super, Super High 5)

Admit that this race has grown more confusing for me as the week has worn on. Careless Jewel, whom I offered up for one of the year’s best scores this year in the Delaware Oaks and whom I anticipated as being imposing here, appears vulnerable on several fronts..

Most Likely: #7 Music Note 9-5 3rd
Next Best: #1 Careless Jewel 2-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Cocoa Beach 8-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Lethal Heat 20-1 7th
High 5 Play: #2 Life Is Sweet 8-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 4-5-8-10
6: 2-6-7
7: 2-7-9
8: 1-7

4x3x3x2 = $96

9th: 40th Las Palmas (G2), F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Wonderful coda to exciting day with 20-1 Drysdale filly singing like a mermaid to Argonauts..

Best Value: #4 Cat by the Tale 20-1 3rd
Most Likely: #9 Quiet Meadow 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Closeout 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Teamgeist 8-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-6-7
7: 2-7-9
8: 1-7
9: 3-4-6-9

3x3x2x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

With the draw at 4pm EST, most fields are firmed up. Unsettled elements remaining include Craig Lewis’ GALLANT GENT weighing the Juvy or Juvy Turf. Curiously, whichever race the 5/3-1-1 Yankee Gentleman gelding chooses will get a Ken Ramsey-Mike Maker also eligible runner into the other event: DEAN’S KITTEN, already with two wins at 8.5f in the Juvy Turf or WILLIAM’S KITTEN, with 5 starts at 5 different tracks (CD, ELP, RD, LaD, WO) in the Juvenile…

The Dirt Mile saw wholesale changes with half of the pre-entries exiting the event: Girolamo, Regal Ransom, Quality Road (Classic); Cowboy Cal (Mile); Crown of Thorns (Sprint likely); Sweet Hearth (Demured from Cup). Mr. Sidney, Ready’s Echo, Furthest Land Neko Bay and Cherokee Artist will all make the Dirt Mile, being run as a Gr. I for the first time…

If ZILVA ends up in the Juvenile Fillies as it looks, Graham Motion intends to keep her and Juvy Filly Turf stablemate SMART SEATTLE apart, then interesting turf sprint jump-up longshot ROSE CATHERINE (Paul Pompa/Todd Pletcher) into the field. After two dreadful starts on dirt, the $410,000 (FT-Saratoga ’08) Speightstown demolished a 6f Belmont MSW October 15 which earned a 91 Beyer. Pompa already will have D’ FUNNYBONE (R. Dutrow) in the Juvenile…

Speaking of ZILVA, this is one Juvy Filly who hasn’t had a mention but owns experience (4 starts), owns ascending figures and is the lone Juvy Filly entrant with multiple starts around two turns, frequently a key indicator of success in the Juvenile events. In 2nd and 3rd career starts (Saratoga), Successful Appeal bay was 3rd behind excellent Tapitsfly before besting double next out winner Orchestrator (71 MSW & 74 ALW BSF’s at KEE) in her route debut. Compromised a scootch early when further back in the Alcibiades than desired, she showed professionalism getting to the front pack by the end as the only horse to make up much ground. Comes in ‘slower’ than the top choices, but Motion/Strawbridge candidate also appears likely for a forward move, and is an ideal BC exotics include…

With all the talk of Godolphin, Coolmore, Juddmonte and Pletcher with armies of runners at this year’s Cup, George Strawbridge Jr. deserves mention given the stunning opportunity he has Friday with horses running under his name or that of Augustin Stables, his nom de course, in every Ladies Day event. Besides ZILVA and SMART SEATTLE in the baby girl races, Strawbridge sends defending Filly & Mare Turf Champion FOREVER TOGETHER, Filly & Mare Sprint second choice INFORMED DECISION, and multiple Group I winning RAINBOW VIEW in the Distaff…

With post positions still to affect fields, several races have significantly obvious top choices that appear to have seperation from the rest of the entrants: Juvenile Turf (Interactif and Lord Viscount); Filly and Mare Sprint (Ventura and Infomed Decision); Marathon (Mastery and Father Time)…

Of the Euros that made it out of quarantine and onto the track for a leg stretch yesterday, Sir Michael Stoute’s Juddmonte 5yo SPANISH MOON was the individual that had most observers impressed. The son of El Prado had a late start to his career making just one start at ages 2 and 3 before a seven race campaign at 4 and three so far this year including the Grp. I Prix de Saint-Cloud this summer…

While it came with the majority of Clocker’s Corner habitues having left, Bill Mott’s COURAGEOUS CAT looked terrific in his work finishing up swiftly (:23.50) and returning to the barn gleefully… Speaking of gleeful returns from works, ZENSATIONAL was still on his toes and prancing as he came by heading home after his jaw-dropping Monday work…

JUSTENUFFHUMOR looks the picture of health with a dappled hind and glistening coat. His fiasco in the Shadwell should probably be ignored given the description of the Keeneland course as bog-like by Kentuckians present here this week. Looks to come into the Turf as an overlay given the presence of Goldikova, Zacinto, Court Vision, et al, in the race. I remain a DELEGATOR fan in this race as his style should suit and he may be the most underbet import in the group…

Tipping the scales at 1,150, SUMMER BIRD has amazingly gained 31 pounds since last week’s workout, a sign that mirrors the Birdstone colt’s pattern in his leadups to the Belmont, Haskell, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup starts (4/3-1-0) according to Tim Ice. He looked super getting his light work in yesterday after Saturday’s sharp workout…

‘Buzz’ horses based on favorable ongoing appearences the last couple of mornings include CANNONBALL and COST OF FREEDOM…

Finished Keeneland meekly while traveling westward Saturday, with plays chopped up by scratches and no good insights. Hope you did OK… Scene shifts in New York to the Big A through April, and Churchill for November…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Superior Selection 6-1
Best Value: #9 Pretty B 6-1
Next Best: #1 Whoopty Whoopty 2-1
Super Add: #4 Somalia 20-1

7th: 53rd Long Island H. (G3), F&M-3+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Criticism 8-5
Best Value: #1 Queen of Hearts 6-1
Next Best: #3 Bubbly Jane 6-1
Super Add: #7 Lemonette 3-1

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Galan Fete 8-1
Most Likely: #6 Light Fever 3-1
Next Best: #5 San Naa 10-1
Super Add: #4 Frenchonionsoup 5-1

9th: MSW-NYB, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #6 River in the Woods 4-1
Best Value: #7 Book 12-1
Next Best: #1 Up for Love 5-1
Super Add: #9 Bullstar 3-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-4-7-9
7: 1-5
8: 3-5-6
9: 1-6-7

4x2x3x3 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: 41st Pocahontas (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 All Due Respect 20-1
Most Likely: #4 Tiz Miz Sue 5-1
Next Best: #3 Sassy Image 9-2
Super Add: #12 All About Anna 15-1

9th: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Backwater Blues 6-1
Best Value: #1 Harken Up 8-1
Next Best: #10 Z.I. Zapp 10-1
Super Add: #6 Great Attack 5-1

10th: 28th Iroquois (G3), 2yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Raging Wit 12-1
Most Likely: #6 Dublin 4-1
Next Best: #2 Call Shot 6-1
Super Add: #7 Uh Oh Bango 5-1

11th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 Cactus Cadillac 7-2
Next Best: #12 Apple Charlotte 4-1
Best Value: #7 Valse Autriche 8-1
Exotics Use: #2 Cave In 5-1
Super Add: #4 Snuggs and Kisses 30-1

@$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-4
8: 1-7-10
9: 1-2-6
10: 7-9-12

3x3x3x3 = $81

Good luck!
Steve

Not a particularly great day at Keeneland Friday, partially tripped by Kickin N Screamin tiring in the last 100 yards of the 2nd to wind up 5th when third looked a certainty. Did catch a healthy $357.90 triple in the 3rd though and a $140 P3 between that race and the 5th, so the day wasn’t a fiasco.

Hope you did OK as we head to the last day of this fun three week session. I think it’s been a largely successful meet at Keeneland for me, as this has never been a place where I do well historically. Note that Santa Anita ($74k), Aqueduct ($51k), Golden Gate ($14k) and Keeneland ($10k) all have carryovers today, with Keeneland needing to make a mandatory payout.

Head to Los Angeles this afternoon to start coverage of the Breeders’ Cup. Look forward to a great week of informative guests as I try to help decipher this year’s 2 days of action. Hope you’ll tune in!

KEENELAND – CLOSING DAY

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Curious money ALW/OC with some logicals yet to either prove ability on synthetic main tracks or show any recency on them.. May open the door for a less talented but surface-acclimated candidate.. Tend at least has been training at KEE and has a win here..

Most Likely: #1 Tend 7-2
Best Value: #9 Goldzar 12-1
Next Best: #7 Knights Cross 6-1
Super Add: #6 Dynamite Bob 20-1

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Project Rose 5-2
Best Value: #5 Cherokee Queen 12-1
Next Best: #1 Glowing 7-2
Super Add: #6 Exotic Bloom 12-1

9th: 51st Fayette (G2), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Parading 7-5
Best Value: #2 Jade’s Revenge 20-1
Next Best: #9 Blame 9-5
Super Add: #1 Public Speaker 10-1

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #6 Parioli’s Trick 12-1
Most Likely: #4 Stradivinsky 7-2
Next Best: #2 Connections 4-1
Exotics Use: #1e Robertson entry 5-1 (One to run)
High 5 Play: #10 Zoran 5-1

<$75 P4 Play:

Appropriately tough sequence to wrap up the fall meet!

7: 1-3-4-6-7-9
8: 1-3-5-6
9: 2-3
10: 2-4-6

6x4x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve