Churchill carryover grew again Saturday with dramatic overtones as a single P6 winner had $167,000 taken away from him on DQ of photo-friendly Boltronic. It was the correct call, but that doesn’t make the way it happened any wasier for whomever had a win like that reversed… Had solid hits around the Calder and Churchill activity Saturday, with on top Best Values making it happen including Mary’s Follies ($20.80) in the Mrs. Revere, the top 4 straight in the CD 7th with Choice Play ($11.60) the key, and Carl Rose Classic (CRC 11th) upsetter Too Many Toyz ($12.20) topping a $60 tri. Hope you did well. One more crack at the Churchill P6 today, and it again looks challenging…

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 City Flag 3-1
Best Value: #12 Thimbleberry 12-1
Next Best: #11 Hitch Your Wagon 6-1
Super Add: #9 Interest Me 5-1

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Runway West 7-2
Best Value: #8 Variant 10-1
Next Best: #4 Letthebigtimesroll 5-1
Super Add: #7 Brooker D 5-1

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 9f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Snowmaster 3-1
Best Value: #6 Warn 5-1
Next Best: #4 Sobhy 7-2
Super Add: #11 Vanontherun 8-1

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Distinctive Dixie 6-5
Best Value: #4 My Heavenly Sign 10-1
Next Best: #5 Newport Harbour 4-1
Super Add: #3 Choragus 5-1

9th: 6th Commonwealth Turf (G3)

Most Likely: #10 Proceed Bee 4-1
Next Best: #1 Get Stormy 5-2
Best Value: #8 Perfect Bull 20-1
Super Add: #7 Grizzled Robert 12-1

10th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #10 Mister Thayer 9-2
Best Value: #3 Regal King 8-1
Next Best: #9 Silver Craft 7-2
Exotics Use: #1 Island Soul 3-1
High 5 Play: #7 D’ Fever 6-1

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 4-11-12
6: 5-8
7: 6-7
8: 7
9: 1-10
10: 1-3-9-10

3x2x2x1x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $196

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-7-11
8: 3-4-5-7
9: 1-10
10: 1-3-9-10

4x4x2x4 = 128 x .50 = $64

Good luck!
Steve

Third straight day of profits Friday with Churchill punts returning the $500+ P4, bonus exotic mutuels in the nightcap and the $300 P6 conso. Only the single of Lady Carlock in the second leg of the sextet failed to connect. When crazily overlaid No Such Word (>14-1), my on top Best Value, took the 10th, an $87k 8 day carryover was the result. That card-ender finished up the day nicely, as the Cindy Jones trainee keyed a $330 tri and $1,110 super. Hope you did well and are ready for a fun weekend of play including Calder’s Florida Millions, Churchill’s Carryover and a good Mrs. Revere.

CALDER RACE COURSE

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 6th John Franks Juv. Turf, 2yo-F (FL), 8.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #10 D’lucci Girl 3-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Simply Impressive 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Winsockie 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Suzanne 6-1 7th

5th: 6th Jack Price Juvenile, 2yo (FL), 7f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Mr. Green 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 What a Prince 10-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Good to Be Seen 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Peace at Dawn 4-1 4th

6th: 8th O’Farrell Juvenile, 2yo-F (FL), 7f (P3, Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #4 Joanie’s Catch 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Winey Taylor 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Sweetlalabye 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Musical Romance 10-1 7th
High 5 Play: #6 Carphonic 4-1 WON

7th: 6th Appleton Juvenile Turf, 2yo (FL), 8.5f-T (.50 Big 4, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Family Foundation 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Thunder Brew 10-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Bim Bam 4-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Show the Way J 5-1 3rd

8th: 8th Jack Dudley Sprint, 3+ (FL), 6f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Pashito the Che 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Honey Honey Honey 5-1
Next Best: #4 Green Vegas 6-1
Super Add: #6 Little Nick 8-1 3rd

9th: 8th Heubeck Distaff H., F&M-3+, (FL), 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Jessica is Back 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Sweetsouthernqueen 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Even Road 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Sweet Repent 4-1 WON

10th: 8th Bonnie Heath Turf Cup H., 3+ (FL), 9f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Soldier’s Dancer 4-5 WON
Best Value: #5 Fearless Eagle 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Pickpocket 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Livingston Street 5-1 4th

<$75 .50 P4 Play:

7: 1-3-9-11-12
8: 2-4-5-6-[8]
9: 2-[6]
10: 5-[8]

Main: 5x5x2x2 = 100 x .50 = $50
Press: 5x1x1x1 = 5 x $5 = $25

11th: 8th Carl Rose Classic, 3+ (FL) 9f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Too Many Toyz 8-1 WON ($12.20)
Most Likely: #3 It’s a Bird 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Temo’s Dream 3-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Dream Maestro 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (2-3) Paid $16.70
$1 Trifecta (2-3-5) Paid $59.10

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Pacific Star 5-2 6th
Best Value: #5 N. Y. Wise Guy 8-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Win Grammy Boy 3-1 WON
Super Add: #1 He Ain’t Right 12-1 2nd

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Gather All 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Jump Start Now 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Miro 3-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Polished 8-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Choice Play 5-1 WON ($11.60)
Most Likely: #5 Sea Gull 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Bill’s Presence 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Joxy Roxy 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (8-5) Paid $17.30
$1 Trifecta (8-5-3) Paid $58.50
$1 Superfecta (8-5-3-1) Paid $370.00

8th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Harlem Rocker 8-5 2nd
Best Value:#8 Cassoulet 10-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Mutadda 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Timbucto 15-1 8th

9th: 19th Mrs. Revere (G2), 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Absolutely fabulous, and nearly impossible, stake.. Reaching out for prices..

Best Value: #5 Mary’s Follies 10-1 WON ($20.80)
Most Likely: #7 Hot Cha Cha 3-1 4th
Next Best: #1 C. S. Silk 10-1 11th
Super Add: #6 War Kill 20-1 10th

10th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #8 Majestic Falcon 10-1
Most Likely: #5 Truchan 4-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Monarchos Boy 8-1
Super Add: #4 Raincatcher 8-1 DNF
High 5 Play: #10 Soldier Field 6-1 WON

<$150 P6 Play:

This is a very tricky sequence and I believe it will take a big ticket to hit. Built relatively inexpense play, but suggest treading lightly or avoiding altogether if uncomfortable with skein...

5: 2
6: 8-10
7: 3-5-8
8: 5-8
9: 1-5-7
10: 5-8

1x2x3x2x3x2 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-8
8: 5-8
9: 1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12
10: 5-8

3x2x12x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Another solid afternoon Thursday with $414 P4 at Aqueduct leading the way. Nice $158 triple in the 8th was a bonus too, and if you were inclined to play the super, keying off Most Likely on top winner Base Commander returned $644 ($1). Frankly, Best Value second choice Gone Missing gave Base Commander everything he wanted in that race, and a win by him would have driven the P4 price sky high. Just as Churchill saved the bacon Wednesday, the New York play carried the day as $16 on top Best Value HONCHIS’N PONCHIS (Romans) was the only real quality opinion I had at Louisville. Hope you did well Thursday!

Hollywood opener later tonight and Downs action this aft the focus with Dee Tee’s KICKIN N SCREAMIN in the 3rd and a $51,500 carryover starting an hour later.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Hold’em Tiger 7-2 8th
Best Value: #2 My Boy Jo 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Devilish Berti 2-1 WON
Super Add: #8 Apache Honor 4-1 3rd

6th: OC/C, F&M-3_+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Very difficult short field event where you may need to spread to protect in the P6..

Most Likely: #6 Lady Carlock 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Day of Victory 5-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Tammy’s Victress 9-2 4th
Super Add #5 Dreaming of Liz 5-2 2nd

7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Rather ridiculous race.. Would any jump up winner really surprise?

Most Likely: #4 Jolly ‘Ol Nick 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Q Mac’s Phone 5-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Wayfarer 5-1 4th
Super Add: #11 SCR

8th: S/ALW, 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Quick to Charm 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Motown Shuffle 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Ocean Ace 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 Memorial Maniac 6-1 5th

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Hamazing Destiny 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Keefer 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 John Kelly 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Be Me 4-1 3rd

10th: MSW, 2yo-F, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #8 No Such Word 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #10 Silky Serenade 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Lily Meadow 8-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Reagan’s Wildcat 5-1 3rd
High 5 Play: #13 Goldbud 15-1

$1 Exacta (8-10) Paid $51.70
$1 Trifecta (8-10-6) Paid $333.90
$1 Superfecta (8-10-6-9) Paid $1,109.40
$1 Pick 3 (2/6/8) Paid $157.80

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-3-8-10
6: 6
7: 3-4
8: 2-4-6
9: 6
10: 6-8-9-10

4x1x2x3x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 Pick 6 (3/2/3/2,11,12,13,14/6/8) Paid $300.60 (5OF6)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-7-8-11-12
8: 2-4-6
9: 4-6
10: 6-8-9-10

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (3/2,11,12,13,14/6/8) Paid $512.40

Good luck!
Steve

Fun start to the week with good racing and some solid hits. P4’s and Churchill carryover tries were short, but $300+ triple and $100+ saver P3 to close Louisville punts put the day right. The big opportunity on the afternoon was the Big A quad which paid a bulbous $2,100+. The singling of Mott-Dominguez feature flop Sky’s the Limit (1-2!) was the culprit in the miss, and stung particularly when my Best Value second choice (Rodman) romped home at $12.

I pressed action at Churchill because there was a similar opening in the late stages at Aqueduct of which I didn’t take advantage. I failed to bet Rodman straight, didn’t have a late P3 play going ($187.50), and didn’t play the selections in the nightcap tri ($112.50). Uggh… Got out OK for the day though as cited, and hope you did alright too. Carryover reached $30k+ at Churchill for today, and Aqueduct has a challenging sequence worth trying.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Working Class Hero 6-5 4th
Best Value: #9 Lion’s Lair 5-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Call Tiger 8-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Trusting Heart 15-1 7th

7th: The Sabin, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Scratches allow prominent players Cable and Diamond Dina to get in..

Most Likely: #8 Sea Chanter 3-1 WON
Next Best: #12 Cable 7-2 6th
Best Value: #9 Always for Love 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Sunshine for Life 5-1 8th

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Base Commander 3-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Gone Missing 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Mr. Madison 8-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Mr. Unstoppable 10-1 3rd

$2 Exacta (5-7) Paid $26.60
$2 Trifecta (5-7-9) Paid $158.50
$1 Superfecta (5-7-9-3) Paid $644.00

9th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Great Gracie Dane 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Foof’s Melody 12-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Holy Moly 5-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Every Little Thing 6-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-5-9
7: 8-9-12
8: 5-7
9: 1-7-12

4x3x2x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (4-8-5-7) Paid $414.50

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 2yo, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Proud Expression 5-1 8th
Best Value: #6 Phil the Thrill 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Girl Bar 5-2 WON
Super Add: #2 Mis Pardner Rules 5-1 6th

6th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 The Right Face 4-1
Best Value: #4 Linebacker 8-1 4th
Next Best: #10 Hidden Bay 5-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Keepinonestepahead 6-1 2nd

7th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cosmic Transit 3-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Nehru 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sporty 10-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Greytap 8-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Honchis’n Ponchis 10-1 WON
Most Likely: #11 Film Charm 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #1 Sweetest Song 3-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Argyle Pink 3-1 7th

9th: OC/C, F&M-3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Libor Lady 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Don’ttalktome 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 Taletobetold 4-1
Super Add: #9 Dee’s Rose 15-1

10th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Malibu Martini 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #12 Chaffee John 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Snuck By 8-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Crazy Coyote 9-2 6th
High 5 Play: #13 Hyrule 10-1 4th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 6-9
6: 3-4
7: 1-4-6-7
8: 1-3-11
9: 2-5
10: 3

2x2x4x3x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6-7
8: 1-3-11
9: 2-5-10
10: 3-5-11-12

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Hope everyone enjoyed Cup and did well. As feared, Saturday was much more difficult to negotiate than Friday, though using Furthest Land in P3’s helped keep Day Two give backs to a minimum. Overall, it was a profitable weekend, and I hope the ATR guest list leading up to Cup and the selection suggestions helped you score. Back to the day-to-day prospecting with Churchill, Aqueduct abnd later this week Hollywood as the targets. Good quality action at the Big A and a $20,000 carryover at 4th and Central today in fact…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Siren’s Call 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Pleasant Sister 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Autumnlady 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 First and Foremost 12-1 10th

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Crazy Catlady 7-2 6th
Best Value: #6 Paraiba 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Gran Appeal 3-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1e McLaughlin entry 4-1 7th/9th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Sky’s the Limit 8-5 6th
Best Value: #6 Rodman 5-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Well Positioned 3-1 2nd

9th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Will protect against ML choice #10 Bishop of Nola (5-2) in multis, but he’s a bad favorite.. Watch to see if either of the deep AE’s draw in. Either are preferable to Bishop of Nola..

Most Likely: #7 Thunder Chief 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Joba 8-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Kuggerand 4-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Tom Kitten 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-7) Paid $26.25
$1 Trifecta (3-7-6) Paid $112.50

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-9
7: 1-3-4-6-8
8: 7
9: 3-5-6-7-10

3x5x1x5 = $75

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Yikes 3-1 WON
Best Value: #12 Pennyroyal 6-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Chubby 4-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Baby My Darlin’ 5-1 7th

6th: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Afleet Maggi 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Reversed On Appeal 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Silent Candy 8-1 10th
Super Add: #10 Oscar de La Thorn 10-1 3rd

7th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Home Field 5-1 5th
Best Value: #10 Stamp 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Myroslaw 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Gresham 8-1 2nd

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Pick and Pray 2-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Darlin’ Diane 10-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Honor Hymn 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Edacious Reality 8-1 4th

9th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Tight Precision 4-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Banker’s Choice 7-2 10th
Best Value: #5 True Birkin 6-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Phola 5-1 2nd

10th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #7 Foolish Promise 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Tricky Chief 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Dr. Rythym 6-1 WON
Super Add: #13 (AE) SCR
High 5 Play: #5 Sun Button 6-1 11th

$1 Exacta (9-3) Paid $65.90
$1 Trifecta (9-3-7) Paid $331.00
$1 Pick 3 (9-10-9) 3 Correct Paid $103.20

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 10-12
6: 2-5-7
7: 4-5-8-10
8: 4-9
9: 10
10: 3-7

2x3x4x2x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5-8-10
8: 2-3-4-6-9-10
9: 10
10: 3-7-9

4x6x1x3 = $72