Took offbeat approaches to the P4 opps Saturday, and bad structure cost me a particularly big payoff at Aqueduct. There were a few premises going into the sequence including seeming certainty Academy Run in the 9th, a likely winner in the Discovery in Gone Astray, a wide open turf ALW in the 7th and a confusing MSW in the 6th.

Tried a $2 6x6x1x1 gambit looking to survive the 6th and catch a price in the 7th. But the MSW turned out to be straightforward, and going wide there proved costly when plausible Haynesfield upset Gone Astray in the feature. Codeword ($40) had ideally juiced up the skien in 7th, so when Academy Run came through to end the day, a $2,276 Pick 4 prize was waiting for game gauntlet goers. That was a fine reward for the sequence.

At Churchill, the AE draw-in upsetter Flavor ($39.60) quashed my pressing try of what looked like a very chalky quartet. To be honest, at least to me, the $444 P4 return doesn’t seem worth the kind of investment it would have taken to get the Joe Woodard trainee on your ticket after $5 Jackpot Joanie, $3.40 Custom for Carlos and $9.40 Acoma.

So all in all, a frustrating Saturday… Hope you did OK despite my miscues. $44,700 carryover at the Big A Sunday which is my focus… There is a $21k sextet pot building at Churchill too.

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Wild News 9-5 WON ($2.90)
Best Value: #6 Victoria Lynn 12-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Capitalism at Risk 4-1 7th
Super Add: #4 Seville 6-1 8th

5th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Idle Gossip 8-5 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #5 Triple Double Kidd 12-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Picnic Rock 3-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Out Nice Them 5-1 5th

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Early Argument 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #4 Thousand Excuses 5-1 5th
Next Best: #10 One Nice Cat 3-1 WON ($9.90)
Exotics Use: #12 Johannesburg Smile 8-1 4th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Paniolo 5-1 7th
Best Value: #2 See the U.S.A. 10-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Trippo 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Mr. Vegas 15-1 WON ($19.20)

8th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Stevil 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 East End Trap 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Brady Baby 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #4 Free Country 5-1 9th

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Lady’s Wish 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Dr Paula Moynahan 5-1
Exotics Use: #1e Rice entry 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Mynia 15-1

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 3
5: 10
6: 3-4-5-6-10-12
7: 2-4
8: 7-8
9: 1-3-6-10

1x1x6x2x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-5-10-12
7: 2-4
8: 7-8
9: 1-3-6-10

4x2x2x4 = $64

Weekday money tree continued to bear fruit Friday as I was able to negotiate the late Churchill quad for $388. Winners paid $10, $12, $15 and $7, but ‘felt’ chalky. Added some exotic flavor with Most Likely 2nd choice Cielo Classic in the 8th keying a $100 tri and $275 super. It’s been a very solid week of play with $276 in P4 investments returning $1,567. Hope you’ve been playing along and doing well.

The huge Thanksgiving Weekend of racing looms ahead, but Aqueduct and Churchill look like good targets today. Good luck to Twin Spires Contest players today. Thanks again to all for the warm birthday wishes Friday. It was a really nice day for me…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky group with little to grab hold of. Note the <6f distance here which favors inside speed. May need to use at least 6 to get through opening leg of quad, and suggest watching board for any glaring clues, if possible, before sending in ticket..

Most Likely: #1 Make History 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Citizen’s Arrest 8-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Forward Hatch 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Monsignor 8-1 7th

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 My Man Lars 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Thou Swell 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 National Kid 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #2 Picou 8-1 4th

8th: 65th Discovery H. (G3),

Most Likely: #5 Gone Astray 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Birdrun 5-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Haynesfield 5-2 WON

9th: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Academy Run 1-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Avenging 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fearless 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Straight to It 8-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-6-7-8-9
7: 2-4-6-8-9-10
8: 5
9: 2

6x6x1x1 = 36 x $2 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Jackpot Joanie 2-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Heaven’s Grace 8-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Toll 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Rendition 8-1 4th

8th: Bet On Sunshine, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Custom for Carlos 2-1 WON
Best Value: #3 Celtic Innis 8-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Grand Traverse 6-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Accredit 3-1 2nd

9th: 34th Cardinal (G3), F&M-3+, 9f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 You Go West Girl 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #3 Acoma 5-2 WON
Next Best: #5 Long Approach 12-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Social Queen 15-1 6th

10th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #2 Warrior’s Reward 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Inkado 10-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Escrow 10-1 8th
Exotics Use: #3 B Z Warrior 5-1 9th
High 5 Play: #8 Posse Cat 12-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-[7]
8: 2-3-[7]
9: 1-2-3-5-6-7-8-9
10: [2]

2x3x8x1 = $48

Press with [X]: 1x1x8x1 = 8 x $3 = $24

$20k carryover at Big A, but heavy rain overnight has 5th, 7th and 9th off turf and anticipated scratches warded me off. Though I’m not thrilled with my handle on the Churchill sequence today, I did give it a glance on the heels of an exceedingly lucrative Thursday. While $735 in the .50 P4 was great, outrageous win pool overlays on Rick Hiles’ Gruenwald ($37.60 as Best Value 2nd choice in the 7th) and Dale Romans’ Nothing Wild ($54.80 as Next Best 3rd choice in the 8th) made the day very rewarding. The Romans firster was dead on the board but ran huge at 26-1, and including the 8th race tabs put the $550 triple within reach. Hope you did really well!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Pure Polished 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Lokomamma 5-1 WON
Next Best: #10 Majestic Feline 3-1 5th
Super Add: #2 C J’s Prize 5-1 8th

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Nickel Pickle 9-2 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Cielo Classic 7-2 WON
Next Best: #5 The Big Finisher 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Classical Closing 4-1 4th

$1 Exacta (2-1) Paid $23.00
$1 Trifecta (2-1-5) Paid $100.80
$1 Superfecta (2-1-5-3) Paid $276.80

9th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Excellent race with well-matched bunch..

Most Likely: #2 Perfect for You 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Home’s the Best 8-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Wellofaprize 3-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Exotic Bloom 8-1 5th

10th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Magic Max 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Kingofthebluegrass 12-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Roman Racecar 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Pulpit’s Secret 6-1 2nd
High 5 Play: #2 Fifth Avenue South 12-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3-9-10
8: 1-2-5
9: 2-3-4-6-7-8
10: 3-6

4x3x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

50 CENT Pick 4 (9-2-3-6) Paid $388.50

Happy I passed on the Hollywood carryover, which chalked out for a $750 payout. Instead, the Aqueduct and Churchill P4’s were taken down for decent enough returns of $230 and $214 respectively ($443.40) on $132 invested. Hope you did well! Card in NY is good, but rainy weather is likely in the afternoon so Churchill is the sole focus.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Heavenly Chorus 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Gruenwald 6-1 WON ($37.60)
Next Best: #1 Badger Barry 4-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Stormin Yank 6-1 6th

8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Aregulationhottie 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Elusive Jozi 8-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Nothing Wild 8-1 WON ($54.80)
Super Add: #7 Quiet by Seven 10-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $106.10
$1 Trifecta (1-2-7) Paid $550.10

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 War Echo 2-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #7 Alice’s Smart 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Color Me Up 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Irish Ridge 3-1 3rd

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #2 Joyous 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Tempo Approved 4-1 WON ($12.40)
Best Value: #4 Merciful 8-1 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Stormie Gray 4-1 5th
High 5 Play: #9 She’s From Queens 6-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-6-7
8: 1-2-4-5-6-7
9: 1-7
10: 1-2-4

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

$0.50 Pick 4 (6/1/1,4/1) Paid $735.40

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Deputyville 8-1 4th
Most Likely: #3 Of All Times 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1 Bestowed 5-1 WON
Super Add: #2 In the Spotlight 6-1 5th

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 2yo, 7f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Rapide One 3-1 4th
Most Likely: #3 City Trooper 7-5 WON
Next Best: #6 Dahlgren Chapel 5-2 2nd

8th: The Flitalong, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Giant Mover 12-1 7th
Most Likely: #10 Denomination 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 West Ocean 6-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Akilina 3-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 7.5f (Super)1-4-5-10

Most Likely: #4 Geno Green 3-1 WON
Best Value: #1a Triple Honor 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Remarkable Storm 4-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Senor Enrico 20-1 10th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-3-4
7: 3-5-6
8: 1-3-7-8-10
9: 4

4x3x5x1 = $60 $1 Pick 4 (1/1,3,7/8/3,4,6) Paid $229.50

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Collar 2-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Sweet Gladys 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Indian Footsteps 5-1 3rd

8th: S/ALW, F*M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Lavenham 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #4 Milwaukee Queen 5-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Newport Lulu 6-1 4th

9th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 My New Lady 4-1 WON
Best Value: #6 Alexandria J 5-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Oculuna 3-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Loveyou Everybody 4-1 2nd

10th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super, High 5)

Most Likely: #1a Drosselmeyer 2-1 WON
Next Best: #11 Saluting Stormye 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Screenplay 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Jasonfranknbill 10-1 6th
High 5 Play: #7 Oldhamburg 8-1 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-6
8: 3-4-5-6-8-9
9: 4-6-7-8
10: 1

3x6x4x1 = $72 $1 Pick 4 (2,4,5/3/4/1,3,6,10,13,14) Paid $213.90

Good luck!
Steve