CHURCHILL DOWNSPOST-SCRATCHES

 

1st: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e Arnold entry 5-2 WON/6th
Best Value: #8 Hurricanette 4-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Maestro Miss 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Snuggs and Kisses 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (1-5) Paid $12.10
$1 Trifecta (1-5-2) Paid $49.90

2nd: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Jonmil’s Edge 8-1 3rd
Most Likely: #8 Donna Getyourgun 3-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Im a Classy Cat 9-2 9th
Super Add: #6 Rapid Racer 8-1 7th

3rd: ALW/N1X, 2yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Oscar de La Thorn 10-1 5th
Most Likely: #6 Katy Now 3-1 WON
Next Best: #1 Pick and Pray 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #9 Quick Breeze 6-1 6th

4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Awfully tough way to end and start P4’s with field made up of mostly firsters.. #16 Bell’s Shoes stands out but isn’t likely to get in..

Best Value: #11 Luyu 10-1 3rd
Most Likely: #1 Wildabout 4-1 10th
Next Best: #4 Bialy 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Cinco Emayo 5-1 WON

$1 Exacta (10-4) Paid $14.90
$1 Trifecta (10-4-11) Paid $98.60

<$75 P4 Play:

1: 1-5-8
2: 2-5-8
3: 1-2-6-8
4: 1-4-10-11

3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

5th: ALW/N1X, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Great Attack 3-1 WON`
Best Value: #6 Successful Score 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Flatter Than Me 2-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Wildcat Nation 6-1 6th

6th: Grand Canyon H., 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Terrific race and you’d think this is due to be back as a Gr. III next year..

Most Likely: #1 Lost Aptitude 5-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Our Douglas 10-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Cat Park 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Roman’s Reward 8-1 9th

7th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 First Dude 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Hurricane Hal 6-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Tiz a Theme 6-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Ink 10-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-11
5: 1-2-3-6-9-10
6: 1-2-4-7-9-10
7: 2-3

2x6x6x2 = 144 x .50 = $72

8th: ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Harken Up 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 Maximus Ruler 5-1 WON
Next Best: #3 Guys Reward 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Holiday Buzz 4-1 4th

$1 Exacta (2-3) Paid $25.60
$1 Trifecta (2-3-1) Paid $83.60
$1 Superfecta (2-3-1-5) Paid $215.20

9th: 66th Golden Rod (G2), 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Upperline 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #2 All Due Respect 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Sassy Image 2-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Decelerator 4-1 2nd

10th: Caressing H., 2yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Check the Label 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #1 Orchestrator 5-2 7th
Next Best: #10 Lisa’s Kitten 7-2 8th
Super Add: #5 Sheer Beauty 10-1 WON

11th: 83rd Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Super Saver 5-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Worldly 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Thiskyhasnolimit 2-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Callide Valley 10-1 6th

12th: MSW, 2yo, 9f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Lonesome Street 3-1 5th
Next Best: #13 Bascom Hall 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Big Shake 15-1 10th
Exotics Use: #5 Outlaw Man 8-1 4th
High 5 Play: #9 Lunar Tide 15-1 12th

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-2-3
10: 1-5-9-10
11: 2-7
12: 3-5-8-9-11-13

3x4x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 88th Demoiselle (G2), 2yo-F, 9f (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Protesting 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Tizahit 4-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Fuzzy Britches 3-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $14.40
$1 Trifecta (4-5-2) Paid $45.75

7th: 96th Remsen (G2), 2yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Buddy’s Saint 4-5 WON
Next Best: #5 Homeboykris 7-5 5th
Best Value: #2 Peppi Knows 20-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (4-2) Paid $21.30

8th: 114th Gazelle (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Unrivaled Belle 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Milwaukee Appeal 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Flashing 4-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Me Love 30-1 5th

9th: 21st Cigar Mile (G1), 3+, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #1e Godolphin entry 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #4 Bribon 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #3 Kodiak Kowboy 2-1 WON

$1 Exacta (3-4) Paid $11.30
$1 Trifecta (3-4-1) Paid $22.10

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Pegasus Tommy D. 7-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Fortissi More 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Quiet On the Tee 5-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Structural Change 3-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-5
8: 1-2-3-4-7-8
9: 1-3-4
10: 2-7

2x6x3x2 = $72

$1 P4 (4-2-3-2) Paid $195.90

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: 27th Generous (G3), 2yo, 1m-T

Most Likely: #1 Bridgetown 6-5 4th
Best Value: #3 Who’s Up 5-1 WON
Next Best: #7 Alfarabi 4-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Summer Movie 10-1 8th

8th: 28th Matriarch (G1), F&M-3+, 1m-T

Most Likely: #4 Ventura 7-5 WON
Best Value: #3 Diamondrella 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Rutherienne 4-1 4th
Super Add: #1 April Pride 12-1

Hope everyone enjoyed Thanksgiving and did OK if they were able to play. 12-1 surprise package Cherokee Country from Ramon Preciado in the Fall Highweight, sent Big A P4 into the stratosphere with successful negotiation topping $6k for $1. At Churchill, chalky sequence ended with Bret Calhoun firster Walking the Beach going off as the $1.90 favorite. Mike Battaglia had made the Medaglia d’Oro debuter 8-1 in the a.m., and his lines have been increasingly sloppy and off the mark this fall.

Second of the four day fete offers up a very nice Clark Day card at Churchill, the Top Flight at Aqueduct and the opening of the Turf Festival at Hollywood (Gr. I Citation).

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: S/HCP, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Super Slash 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Don’tgetsuspicious 6-1 8th
Next Best: #9 Hold That Prospect 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #6 Silvercup Baby 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (9-8) Paid $19.00
$1 Trifecta (9-8-6) Paid $70.75

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Cades Bay 4-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Toocleverforwords 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Boxitup 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Speak Easy Gal 15-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (7-1) Paid $35.75
$1 Trifecta (7-1-2) Paid $239.75

9th: 70th Top Flight H. (G2), F&M-3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Sara Louise 6-5 WON
Next Best: #6 Spritely 4-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Cuvee Uncorked 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Justwhistledixie 5-2 2nd

$1 Exacta (1-8) Paid $4.75
$1 Trifecta (1-8-5) Paid $20.90

10th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

NOTE: Both ends of the #2e Rodriguez (R. Dutrow) entry SCRATCHED…

Most Likely: #5 Stroll for Acure 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Tire Kicker 8-1
Next Best: #1a Dorian Will 4-1 WON
Super Add: #8 Victory March 5-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-6-8-9
8: 1-5-7
9: 1-6
10: 1-4-5

4x3x2x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (5,9/3,7,11,12/1/1,2,11,12,13,14) Paid $83.25

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

9th: River City H. (G3), 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Rahy’s Attorney 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Banrock 6-1 6th
Next Best: #9 Karelian 2-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Cryptolight 50-1 7th

10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Keefer 8-1 12th
Most Likely: #1 Fitzaslew 9-2 6th
Next Best: #7 Pressure Point 8-1 5th
Super Add: #11 Jet Set Vinny 9-2 4th

11th: Clark H. (G2), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Etched 6-1 13th
Next Best: #14 Einstein 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #11 Timber Reserve 20-1 14th
Super Add: #3 Giant Oak 20-1 4th

12th: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Waccamaw 6-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Omega Cat 5-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Yolo 15-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Grassy Nellie 3-1
High 5 Play: #7 Cavan Thunder 10-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-4-9-10
10: 1-3-6-7-9-11
11: 8-14
12: 3-4-5

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

In what had to be an odd first, all 6 of my third choice “Next Best” selections won Wednesday… which resulted in absolutely nothing as the multis were tricky ticket building exercises. The sextet paid a healthy $11k and the quad an OK $322. Hope you did OK.

It’s Thanksgiving, and I wish everyone a wonderful holiday… Carryover at AQU and good quality late action at Churchill…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 1m (P6, P3 DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Talking Blues 7-5 5th
Best Value: #4 Good Karma 10-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Sweet On Bernice 6-1 4th
Super Add: #2 Eddie’s Point 4-1 3rd

5th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Gattinara 3-1 7th
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #2 Eager Emma 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 SCR

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Timber Cat 5-1 7th
Most Likely: #11 Long Island Louie 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #10 SCR
Super Add: #7 Been a Pleasure 8-1 WON

7th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Karakorum Legend 2-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Tobruk 12-1 10th
Next Best: #10 Compliance Officer 5-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Gold Vendetta 8-1 7th

8th: 96th Fall Highweight (G3), 3+, 6f (DD)

Most Likely: #1e Repole entry 5-2 4th/7th
Best Value: #7 Formidable 12-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Ah Day 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Sean Avery 9-2 6th

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Mindbender 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1a Classofsixtythree 30-1 WON
Next Best: #13 Disco Diva 8-1 5th
Super Add: #14 Skip Away Belle 4-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-4-5-8
5: 2-9
6: 3-11
7: 1-5-10
8: 1-7
9: 8

4x2x2x3x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-11
7: 1-5-10
8: 1-6-7
9: 1-8-13-14

2x3x3x4 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

8th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Chasing Ted 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #2 Flexthegoldenpipes 3-1 5th
Next Best: #13 SCR
Super Add: #1 Mandoorule 8-1 7th

9th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Fortunate Play 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #5 Warbling 6-5 WON
Next Best: #9 Distorted Love 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Chapolte 8-1 7th

10th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Victory Notion 15-1 4th
Most Likely: #12 Moon Town 2-1 WON
Next Best: #11 Calimonco 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Clapham 20-1 7th

11th: 94th Falls City H. (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Unbridled Belle 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Serenading 8-1 WON

11th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #4 Henry’s Time 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #8 Mister Minister 5-1 8th
Next Best: #12 Fayoum 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #13 Monarchos Boy 15-1 9th
High 5 Play: #6 Walking the Beach 8-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

9: 1-5
10: 2-7-9-10-11-12
11: 4-5-6
12: 4-8-12-13

2x6x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

More or less as anticipated, the Churchill carryover wasn’t worth trying Tuesday as the sequence went un-hit again… The winners of the first 5 ranged from obvious to hardly impossible with totes of $11.00, $12.80, $6.80, $16.40 and $4.60. Overlaid Yore ($54) busted up the plays of many in the nighhtcap, and even that Scooter Dickey entry number, whom I included as ‘High 5 Play’ 5th choice, wasn’t completely outlandish. I wasted $72 on an action bet and was out after the first leg, the silly $30k Maiden Claiming race that went to Ralph Nicks’ 9-2 Brittany Goes West. Did manage to catch an overlay exotic in the 6th with Countus in Mon from Dave Kassen keying a $230 tri. That helped defray the day’s losses. Hope you did OK and are willing to try again today with the sextet just as tricky!

ATR starts to preview the Holiday Stakes action today on SiriusXM… We’re off Thanksgiving Day, but back Friday 4-7pm EST with the Top Flight from Aqueduct and the Clark Day action from Churchill as well as more capping of the big weekend!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 First to Know 9-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Atomic Force 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Polished 3-1 WON
Super Add: #2 Hardknockinbillie 10-1 4th

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Tally Up 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Chaffee John 20-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Shilah 6-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Native Tongue 10-1 7th

7th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

As discussed last night on ATR, interesting N2L ALW with a couple of big fig dirt winners (#3 Jerry Barry Jack and #10 Harmony Landing) trying the lawn. Both are 10-1 with the #3 obviously drawn more ideally. Tough call but worth keying at least the insider at the number..

Best Value: #3 Jerry Barry Jack 10-1 7th
Most Likely: #8 Justy 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Whitely 7-2 WON
Super Add: #10 Harmony Landing 10-1 6th

8th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 St. Rose 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Southern Tenacity 5-1 7th
Next Best: #2 Rising Barometer 5-2 WON
Super Add: #8 Runway Star 12-1 6th

9th: OC/N3X, F*M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 SCR
Most Likely: #1 Brezing Rain 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sheltered 5-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Secret Kin 5-1 5th

10th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 Eris 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Cherokee Star 6-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Ride On Josephine 5-2 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Cutting Edge 8-1 10th
High 5 Play: #1 Outside 10-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

5: 4-6
6: 1
7: 3-4-6-8-9-10
8: 5-9
9: 1-4-7
10: 9

2x1x6x2x3x1 = 72 x $144

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-6-8-9-10
8: 5-9
9: 1-4-7
10: 2-3-8-9

6x2x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Despite having been moved to Rick Dutrow’s barn, couldn’t find enough reason to include $22 Helsinki Sunday in the Aqueduct 8th which sunk the shot at a carry conso. Also needed to have $19 Mr. Vegas (Super Add) higher up the pecking order in the 7th… Despite falling short Sunday, the liberal $11k P6 payoff (with two virtual singles to start the sequence), and the outrageous $3,432k P3 (6th-8th) and $3,100 P4 show again why the multi-race wager is the place to be. Hope you did OK.

Huge week of racing starts early Tuesday with Churchill producing another ‘real’ carryover of $42k. The sextet is VERY challenging however and may be a ‘watch and wait’ day knowing that a lot of serious action lies ahead Thursday-Sunday.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Very little to go on with this group..

Best Value: #5 Lady of the Manor 5-1 6th
Most Likely: #8 Late SCR
Next Best: #12 Neighborhood House 7-2 9th
Super Add: #3 Nasty Girl Blues 12-1 5th

6th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Highly volatile bunch with form and surface issues galore..

Most Likely: #8 Simone 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Island Lioness 12-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Countus in Mon 4-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Deputy Damsel 12-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (7-4) Paid $44.80
$1 Trifecta (7-4-8) Paid $230.20

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Why Tonto 4-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Sam P. 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Silver Mountain 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Mr Maccool 10-1 6th

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Dr. Rythym 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Gentleman Scholar 8-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Cliff’s Gold 8-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Fast Draw 6-1 WON

9th: ALW/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Cruisin’nthebridle 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Queen of Victory 12-1 10th
Next Best: #9 Aaroness 5-2 WON
Super Add: #2 Bandora 5-1 8th

10th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Baku Breeze 5-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Trois Desir 6-1 11th
Next Best: #8 Soda Jerk 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #10 Heliecat 3-1 2nd
High 5 Play: #1 (POE) Yore 12-1 WON

$1 Exacta (1-10) Paid $116.70
$1 Trifecta (1-10-8) Paid $540.20
$.10 Superfecta (1-10-8-6) Paid $192.75

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-5-(8/SCR)-12
6: 1-8
7: 3-6-8
8: 6
9: 7-10
10: 6-7

1x2x5x1x5x2 = 100 x $2 = $200

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-8-9
8: 1-2-6
9: 2-7-9-10
10: 6-7-8

4x3x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72