Suggested treading lightly on difficult Aqueduct carryover sextet Saturday, and that was certainly good advice. Every winner in the sequence was between 7-2 and 6-1, going off as the 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 3rd, 4th and 4th choices, and it would have taken a very deep or lucky play to garner each. The nuttiest price of the day was the 11-2 you got on Awesome Ashley in the featured Garland of Roses. I had a brutal day after the great Friday, and was appreciative that Tina had a party in Saratoga that prevented me from losing any more after the 6th. Hope you did OK and are in the mood to attack Sunday’s good card.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

Fun and challenging sequence with $125k Carryover..Cold and dry today in S. Ozone Park..

4th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Eleni’s Hope 6-1
Most Likely: #5 Wise Choice 2-1
Next Best: #6 Lyrical Bobcat 6-1
Super Add: #1 Donna’s Sandee 5-1

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 The Mayor 3-1
Best Value: #3 Gargantua 8-1
Next Best: #8 Victory March 2-1
Exotics Use: #5 Country Trick 10-1

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Risky Rachel 4-1
Best Value: #1 Precious Penny 12-1
Next Best: #13 Royal Alibi 3-1
Super Add: #12 Nina’s Spirit 10-1

7th: 31st Damon Runyon-NYB, 2yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Dont Blame the Cat 3-1
Most Likely: #3 Ibboyee 2-1
Next Best: #5 City Trooper 5-2
Super Add: #1 Vital Argument 12-1

8th: 72nd EastView-NYB, 2yo-F, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Myrtle’s Gray 3-1
Best Value: #8 Thundered 20-1
Next Best: #3 Primed to Be Ready 6-1
Super Add: #9 Under the Rainbow 12-1

9th: CLM, 3+, 1m-70y (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Stungbythestorm 3-1
Best Value: #4 Yankee Chief 10-1
Next Best: #7 Press Only 8-1
Super Add: #5 Bullara 20-1

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-5-6
5: 2-3-8
6: 1-9-12-13
7: 2
8: 7-8
9: 6

4x3x4x1x2x1 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-9-12-13
7: 2-3
8: 3-7-8
9: 4-6-7

4x2x3x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Wild day at Aqueduct Friday with a once a year type P4 payoff delivering $112k to one $2 ticket or $56k to two $1 plays. The sequence, which I foreshadowed as having potential for being lucrative, featured 2 $30+ horses in Sonny’s the One and Executive Search and one $40+ winner in Devilishameye.

My ticket certainly had the right idea when I suggested singling 8th race winner Summer Share ($7.80) to be able to spread as much as possible elsewhere. It wasn’t enough though. ‘Devilish’ was included, but Executive Search, my fourth choice Exotics Use, was left off as was Sonny’s the One, something of a lucky winner in the 6th. Sonny’s the One ran by everyone in an incident filled skein starter that included Mr. Bourbon Street tossing Mike Luzzi at the start and changing the complexion of the event. In addition to the loose horse, Davey Cohen on Man in Grey made Javy Castellano look like a bug boy keeping him and Cherokee Focus completely pinned on the rail.

While I’m not sure the Paulino Ortiz-trained winner wouldn’t have come out on top anyway, this particular outcome needed a bunch of things to happen to be produced. But the P4 still would have been enormous and a carryover produced no matter who took the 6th. The bottom line though is that the P4, and even the doubles and P3’s inside the late action, demonstrate that multi-race wagering is irresistible for producing highly returns with high impact.

The $515 7th race trifecta was the best of the Big A calls, and later in Louisiana, there was nothing but cashed tickets on the soggy Delta Downs card. Four modest tris ($56, $57, $92, $77), 2 OK supers ($112, $260) and the $283 P4 (4-1 return on $72 play) were available in the selections. Hope you did well… Heard from a couple ATR callers that scored, as well ‘tigerfan’ at Derby Trail who caught the $500+ 7th race tri and $1,646 late P3!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

$35,000 CARRYOVER

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Broman entry 2-1 4th/7th
Next Best: #8 Cole T 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Belfast Lad 6-1 11th
Exotics Use: #2e Levine entry 12-1 5th/10th

5th: CLM, 3+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Interesting dime claimer with the two inside faves (#1/5-2, #2/3-1) looking at least vulnerable to me. Will go for the jugular and play against both..

Most Likely: #8 Four Star Bo 4-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Stargleam 9-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Indymine 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Lofty Banner 3-1 5th

6th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Allow Me 6-1 5th
Most Likely: #6 Five Aces 7-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Forty Prayers 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Freefourme 8-1 3rd

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Very difficult group..

Most Likely: #1 Dancing Daisy 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Marula 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Mustang Fever 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Idle Gossip 8-1 6th

8th: 24th Garland of Roses, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Utterly inscrutable event featuring runners from not one, but two suspended trainers! And if Pletcher had taken his long-delayed Wait a While Breeders’ Cup suspension this month, there would be 4 in here from benched conditioners!

Most Likely: #6 Awesome Ashley 10-1 WON
Next Best: #4 By the Light 6-1 4th
Best Value: #7 Casanova Killer 12-1 6th
Super Add: #9 All of Her Twist 7-2 7th

9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Ruling Decision 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Hidden Prince 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Rubinstein 2-1 8th
Super Add: #9 S. Z. Madison 5-2 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

This is a very difficult sequence.. Tread lightly..

4: 1
5: 2-3-6-8
6: 6-8
7: 1-6-7
8: 4-6-7
9: 1

1x4x2x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-8
7: 1-6-7
8: 4-6-7
9: 1-3-6-9

2x3x3x4 = $72

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

 6th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Cherokee Focus 9-2 5th
Best Value: #10 Mr. Bourbon Street 8-1 DNF
Next Best: #7 Man in Grey 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Chief Operator 12-1 3rd

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Be Bullish 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Almighty Silver 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Run With the Lark 9-2 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Executive Search 12-1 WON

$1 Exacta (7-3) Paid $126.50
$1 Trifecta (7-3-4) Paid $515.50

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Summer Share 4-1 WON
Most Likely: #6 Star of New York 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Whirlwind Poppy 5-2 4th
Super Add: #4 Cat Three Approach 10-1 5th

9th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #12 Laylaben 7-2 4th
Next Best: #7 Heavenly Pursuit 5-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Justify 10-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Devilishameye 20-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

Could be a very lucrative sequence.. Will try gambit singling Bush ground-saver in the 8th..

6: 2-5-7-8-10
7: 2-3-4
8: 1
9: 4-5-7-10-12

5x3x1x5 = $75

DELTA DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: 2nd Orleans, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, Super)

Best Value: #7 Double Espresso 9-2 2nd
Most Likely: #1 Heavenly Vision 4-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Fools in Love 7-2 WON
Super Add: #5 Speightstown Belle 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-7) Paid $15.70
$1 Trifecta (4-7-5) Paid $55.90
$1 Superfecta (4-7-5-1) Paid $111.80

5th: 5th Treasure Chest, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Unforgotten 3-1 WON
Best Value: #4 Martin’s Bay 5-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Foxy Danseur 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Sweetsouthern Doll 12-1 4th

6th: 5th Sam’s Town, 3yo, 7f (.50 P4, P3, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Lookin Mighty Fast 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Southern Vintage 10-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Dumar 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 And Music Came 6-1 4th

$1 Exacta (7-8) Paid $17.10
$1 Trifecta (7-8-5) Paid $57.80
$1 Superfecta (7-8-5-6) Paid $260.10

7th: 7th Delta Princess (G3), 2yo-F, 1m (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Truth and Justice 5-2 9th
Best Value:#8 Quiet Temper 8-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Bella Diamante 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Joanie’s Catch 3-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (8-6) Paid $18.30
$1 Trifecta (8-6-3) Paid $92.90

8th: 7th Delta Mile, 3+, 1m (P3, Super)

Best Value: #7 Ez Dreamer 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #6 SCR
Next Best: #8 Spotsgone 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #3 Que Paso 8-1 4th

9th: 7th Delta Jackpot (G3), 2yo, 8.5f (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #7 My Time to Star 8-1
Best Value: #8 Oak Motte 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Rule 5-2 WON
Super Add: #2 Uh Oh Bango 4-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (3-2) Paid $11.30
$1 Trifecta (3-2-8) Paid $76.90

<$100 P4 Play:

6: 5-7-8
7: 5-8
8: 3-4-5-6/SCR-7-8-9
9: 2-3-7-8

3x2x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72 .50 Pick 4 (7,10/8/9/3) Paid $283.60

Thanksgiving Holiday racing was especially fun with a number of important Derby Trail foreshadowing performances (Super Saver, Maximus Ruler, Buddy’s Saint); career-enders (Ventura, Einstein, Flashing); a possible Championship decider (Kodiak Kowboy) and lucrative big prices (T.D. Vance, Rahystrada). Hope you did well and enjoyed the coverage!

Race week and December starts with carryovers galore including $50k (P6) at Aqueduct to coincide with the Inner Meet Opener, $249k (P6) and $30k (Super High Five 8th) at Hollywood…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Pleasant Sister 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #8 Amelia the Cat 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Siren’s Call 1-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Southern Princess 8-1 4th

5th: CLM, 3yo, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Early Response 4-1 7th
Most Likely: #2 Woodacre 3-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Moose Man 9-2 5th
Super Add: #6 Papa Charlie 12-1 8th

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)

NOTE: OFF THE TURF

Best Value: #2b Embrace Change 15-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Dreamnote 10-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Frontal Stride 12-1 3rd

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Not a Peep 7-5 WON
Best Value: #8 Submerge 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Citifesta 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Way to Karakorum 12-1 4th

$1 Exacta (3-8) Paid $12.80
$2 Trifecta (3-8-1) Paid $32.75
$1 Superfecta (3-8-1-7) Paid $182.70

8th: The Tate, 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Super tricky little overnight here with top ML pair looking alternately run-off dominant or speed duel vulnerable. Likely a make or break stop on the P6 line..

Most Likely: #7 Bold Union 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Powder Princess 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Boodles 7-2 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bon Marie 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Midwatch 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Maddy’s Crowd 7-2
Super Add: #6 White Holiday 12-1

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 3-7-8
5: 2-4
6: 2
7: 3-8
8: 1-7
9: 1-5

3x2x1x2x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96 $2 P6 Conso (5 of 6) Paid $14.00 x 2 = $28.00

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2
7: 3-8
8: 1-2-5-6-7
9: 1-5-6-7-10

1x2x5x5 = $50 $1 P4 Paid $21.60

HOLLYWOOD

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 No More Travelin’ 2-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Yankee Romance 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Sweet Hanni 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Almy Road 15-1 4th

$2 Exacta (1-8) Paid $6.60
$1 Trifecta (1-8-5) Paid $17.40
$1 Superfecta (1-8-5-2) Paid $125.20

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Red Door Drive 5-2 WON
Next Best: #4 Halo’s Law 2-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Candy for Paseana 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #3 Hold Fast 3-1 4th

5th: Cal-bred OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Lady Alex 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Blame the Wine 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Suziqcutie 12-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Perfect Magic 20-1 6th

6th: CLM, 3yo, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 My Man Sumo 5-1 6th
Most Likely: #8 Paddy’s Magic 4-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Devil Cat M D 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Point Attended 8-1 2nd

7th: OC/N3X, 3+, 7.5f (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Bestdressed 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Star Nicholas 3-1 4th

8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

$30k Super High 5 Carryover..

Best Value: #2 Anundeniablyhappy 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #7 Bubbly Blonde 5-2 WON
Next Best: #5 Our Anastacia 8-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Global Inspiration 12-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Champagne Snob 20-1 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

3: 1-8
4: 1-4
5: 1-5
6: 2-4-5-8-9
7: 1-2
8: 2

2x2x2x5x2x1 = 80 x $2 = $160

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-5
6: 2-4-5-8-9
7: 1-2-5/SCR
8: 2-7

2x5x3x2 = $60

Good luck!
Steve

A fabulous Holiday Weekend winds down today, but not before two more excellent stakes including the Gr. 1 Hollywood Derby, arguably the best event over these past 96 hours of dynamite action. Saturday, Kodiak Kowboy may have closed out his campaign for the Sprinter Eclipse with an ultra professional claim of the Cigar Mile over a polished group. Adding this to his Gr. I Vosburgh and Carter wins and Forego runner-up effort, makes Rick Porter’s Posse colt tough to deny a trophy.

Earlier, Rich Migliore was brilliant front-ending Godolphin’s Flashing around the Big A to nab the Gazelle, 20 years after his he first won the elite distaff event on Tactile for Dickie Small and the Meyerhoffs. The New York 2 year old races went to Buddy’s Saint (Bruce Levine) and Tizahit (George Weaver), but neither were as impressive as the Kentucky winners of the Golden Rod and Jockey Club.

Churchill closed out its’ fall meet, and training titler Dale Romans was dominant as Sassy Image won the Golden Rod like a pro 90 minutes after his Lost Aptitude demolished the turf Grand Canyon. Bernie Flint’s Sheer Beauty (10-1 ML) was bet like everyone knew winning the Caressing before Todd Pletcher’s Super Saver turned in a stunning effort in the Kentucky Jockey Club.

At Hollywood, the Turf Festival rolled on with a popular win for Juddmonte’s Ventura in the Matriarch. While running under Humberto Ascanio’s name, most considered the effort Bobby Frankel’s last true start in the Chester House mare’s final career spin. She ends her racing days with an outstanding 21/10-8-1 record for more than $2.5 million in earnings. Earlier at Inglewood, as I suggested Friday on ATR, Bridgetown did faulter in the Generous as Kathy Walsh’s emergent Who’s Up bested the set.

The wagering was solid most of the day with Aqueduct’s action going thoroughly my way. Missing the late P4 at Churchill live to 6 horses was very disappointing however and coast the bankroll a $600+ boost. Hope you did well and are ready for yet one more afternoon of quality racing!

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Tigresco 6-5 2nd
Next Best: #10 Ducduc 3-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Franklin Delano 12-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Jacob’s Dream 8-1 6th

5th: ALW/N2L, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Sky’s the Limit 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #5 Strong Commitment 7-2 5th
Super Add: #6 Honest Wildcat 8-1 4th

6th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Far Isle 9-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Pretty B 5-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Weak Dollar Policy 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Rumpus Room 30-1 2nd

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 War Hoot 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Keeping the Honor 12-1
Next Best: #3 Extra Zip 3-1 WON
Super Add: # 5 Solvent 8-1 3rd

8th: The Power Lunch, 3+, 14f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Atoned 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Tomcito 12-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Jane’s Kid 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #9 Critical Acclaim 20-1 4th

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Upper Gulch 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Casa Di Vino 10-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Unique Citizen 4-1 WON
Super Add:#2 Eleni’s Hope 20-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-4-5-6
7: 2-10
8: 4-6
9: 1-2-3-7

4x2x2x4 = $64

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: 18th Miesque (G3), 2yo-F, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Connie and Michael 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #8 Whispering Hush 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 In the Slips 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 The Mailet 6-1 WON

$1 Exacta (4-7) Paid $49.60
$1 Trifecta (4-7-6) Paid $225.00

6th: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 M One Rifle 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Dapper Gene 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Usurp 4-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Stella Mark 10-1 8th

7th: OC/C, 3+, 6f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 T. D. Vance 9-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Get Funky 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Quietly Mine 5-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Tiz West 12-1 5th

$1 Exacta (3-5) Paid $41.80

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Turf and Sky 12-1 2nd-DH
Most Likely: #7 Kanan Dune 3-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Mr. Hot Stuff 5-2 4th
Super Add: #8 Tiger Blitz 10-1 8th

9th: 68th Hollywood Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (DD, Super)

Hats off to HOL’s Martin Panza. This is as ideal a group for a race like this as can be assembled. Too many inviting prices lined up here, so don’t settle for just chalk. Remember they’re going 10 panels, so look for ground-savers and breeding..

Best Value: #4 Rescue Squad 20-1 5th
Most Likely: #7 Take the Points 7-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Black Bear Island 9-2 8th
Exotics Use: #6 Al Khali 8-1 4th; #3 Straight Story 8-1 9th

10th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #5 Quiet Invader 8-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Zilarator 7-2 12th
Next Best: #6 Domonation 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #9 Wayman 9-2 5th
High 5 Play: #4 Fyvio 20-1 10th

$1 Exacta (6-5) Paid $35.00

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-6-7
8: 4-7
9: 1-3-4-6-7
10: 5-10

4x2x5x2 = $80