Wild winners of the two cheap claiming races sent the Tampa P4 careening into rarefied air Thursday with the .50 payout coming back at more than $4,300. $102 Exchange the Limit (15-1; lone speed at 7f and turning back) was tough to like unless you thought he could go uncontested.. and that’s exactly what happened. $35 Real Place (8-1 ML) in the $6,250 9th was not impossible, note that both were Suffolk exports. Hope you did OK. Hollywood the focus Thursday..

HOLLYWOOD

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7,5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Candy Arches 6-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Maj. Trouble 20-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Action in May 5-2 4th
Super Add: #12 Outside Shot 7-2 7th

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Fleet Royale 9-5 WON
Best Value: #9 Warren’s Came Home 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 It’s Partytime 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Miss Dreamer 20-1 8th

7th: ALW/N3X, 3+, 6f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #2 Rainbow Goose 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Compari 8-5 WON
Best Value: #1 SCR

8th: S/ALW, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #6 Show the Flag 5-1
Best Value: #1 Ur Turn Dubai 20-1
Next Best: #2 Gilligan 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Straightomidnight 6-1 3rd
High 5 Play: #5 Litecorr 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

Very quirky sequence, and I’ll take something of a stab here singling in the 6th with feature looking completely wide open and nightcap equally perplexing.. Could be a juicy quad in the offing here..

5: 2-9-13
6: 6
7: 2-3-4-5
8: 1-2-5-6-7

3x1x4x5 = $60

Have long been an advocate of Mrs. Thayer’s Oldsmar oval, but have to say I preferred original Tampa schedule with Tuesday ‘exclusivity’. Cards like today’s, with $6,250 and $8,000 claimers and a bizarre $20k MSW in the late P4, will simply not hold interest later in the winter versus offerings at Gulfstream, Santa Anita, Fair Grounds, Oaklawn or Aqueduct.

The .50 increment and new reduced 20% takeout offset the sequence quality somewhat of course, but given the obscure connections and frequent quirky results at TBD, it will be hard-pressed to get attention from anyone but its’ most regular followers without that attractive sole focus it had with ‘Tampa Tuesdays’…

TAMPA BAY DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 7f (.50 P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Slievenamon 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Capulet 5-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Timeoutforthejudge 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Misfit Manny 6-1 4th

8th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Omega Cat 2-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Sharp Sunrise 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Jaunty Gale 7-2 4th
Super Add: #7 One Man to Beat 6-1 2nd

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Excellent Rate 2-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Once is Enough 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Hands Wavering 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 Talking Flirt 4-1 5th

10th: MSW, 3+, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Curragh Mon 5-2 WON
Next Best: #8 Coast to Coast 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 Powerhouse 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Sonny B Cruisin’ 12-1 6th
High 5 Play: #5 Fancyfreeeverett 10-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 5-7-9-10
8: 4-6-7-8
9: 2-4-5
10: 1-3-8

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Caught the Aqueduct quad for small return of $134 Friday, as any attempt to produce a bonus priced horse fell short. Chippewa Court was probably the best include, as the 16-1 Best Value second choice chased home 4-5 Positive Prospect and provided real potential to charge the P4 into a juicy score. Feature produced a nice $71.75 triple keyed by on top Most Likely J. L. Bernstein. Best Value second choice Goodbyeandgoodluck, who ended up third, was likely the best of the tightly-bunched trio at the end, and was a winner had the early running not cost him a bunch of ground.

All in all, a good day in Jamaica, and another nice card is scheduled today. Hope you did well!

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

NOTE: SEVERAL SCR’S AFFECTED PLAYS…

1st: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Hot and Bothered 3-1 9th
Next Best: #6 Ampart Ridge 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Anjorie 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Zip of Fools 7-2 6th

2nd: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Montecore 7-2 4th
Best Value: #7 The Truffle Man 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Rereadthefootnotes 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Success Fee 10-1 5th

3rd: The Snit, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Saxet Heights 12-1 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Tidal Dance 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Life at Ten 4-1 WON
Super Add: #1 My Dinah 8-1 5th

4th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 C’Est Qui Ton Pere 5-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Timber Cat 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Maneti 8-1 11th
Super Add: #7 My Friend Sandy 9-2 4th

5th: CLM, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely:#6 Ruff and Ready 8-5 4th
Best Value: #11 Tsavorite 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Wheaton Home 8-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2 A Zero Trap 10-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-4-7
3: 2-3-7
4: 10-13
5: 6-9-11 ($1 P3 Paid $275.00)

4x3x2x3 = $72

6th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Johannesburg Smile 7-2 5th
Next Best: #2 Thousand Excuses 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Backcountry Boy 10-1 4th
Super Add: #9 L L Flying Notes 20-1 6th

$1 Pick 3 (13/9/2) Paid $211.50

7th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #6 Brady Baby 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Reflect Times 15-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Stevil 3-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) East End Tap 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (3-6) Paid $68.00
$1 Trifecta (3-6-1) Paid $262.00
$1 Pick 3 (9/2/3) Paid $641.50

8th: 104th Queens County (G3), 3+, 9.75f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Researcher 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Honour Devil 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Storm Play 3-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Naughty New Yorker 15-1 5th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #12 Triple Glory 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Khan of Khans 3-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Larry’s Revenge 4-1 8th
Super Add: #10 Weekend Action 8-1 12th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-3-4-6-7-9
7: 3-6
8: 2-4-8
9: 7-12

6x2x3x2 = $72

Sloppy play and/or poor decision-making cost a very nice overlaid P4 at Hollywood yesterday of nearly $560. Leaving $28.00 Next of Kendra off to start the ticket was the culprit, unless you designate not singling 2-5 Tenacious Tina in the 7th as the costliest miscue. Either way, this was a sequence that had a broad target on it and I missed.

Looking back at the races after the card concluded was hard to take, as the P6 paid $38,600. On the day, I came up with 3 Most Likely on top winners, a 2nd choice Best Value and the 2 slightly harder to find winners (5th/8th) as Super Adds. While it’s silly to say the P6 could have been hit, it’s stunning that the sextet paid that well on a group of races that didn’t offer full fields or very confusing scenarios.

I almost never play a P6 without a carryover, but seeing what happened yesterday would give pause to think about what situations make it attractive without a bonus pot. Hope you did OK.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very tricky low level claiming event with mish mosh of out of form types and general misfits..

Most Likely: #6 Yes It’s the Truth 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 West Coast Flier 6-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Laudable 10-1 7th
Super Add: #3 French Transition 20-1 9th

7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Positive Prospect 9-5 WON
Next Best: #8 Chippewa Court 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Let’s Fly Away 15-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Unicorn Girl 8-1 9th

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 J L Bernstein 4-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Goodbyeandgoodluck 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Vinnie Van Go 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Longing for Malibu 10-1 6th

9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 1m-70y (Super)

Best Value: #2 Dougout Deputy 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #7 Centrina 4-1
Next Best: #3 Catchapenny K. 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 Every Little Thing 5-2 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-6
7: 1-8
8: 2-3-7
9: 2-3-7-10

3x2x3x4 = $72

$1 P4 (5-1-2-10) Paid $135.05

Second large Wednesday Hollywood carryover in a row today. It’s a very fun sequence, and features an intriguing MSW sixth race with a number of career-delayed colts/geldings with potentially big futures. Good to see Bill Currin, with Wild Promises/Icy Atlantic sibling Icyberg in that 6th, back in the entries too. Jon White explained Tuesday that Currin had a stroke episode earlier in the year and has cut back his operation. I got to know him a bit when Stormello was making his Derby Trail appearances, and there may not be a more jovial guy on a backstretch. And speaking of Jon White, his $216 P6 play is below…

HOLLYWOOD

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Next Best: #6 Carnival Queen 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Miss Anime 6-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Go See Cecie 12-1 4th

4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Stanford Dolly 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Recess 2-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Gula Gold 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Twoformeoneforyou 10-1 4th

$1 Exacta (6-7) Paid $6.90
$1 Trifecta (6-7-2) Paid $24.00
$1 Superfecta (6-7-2-1) Paid $98.20

5th: S/ALW, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Maddeningly balanced starter ALW. Any of the 7 seem capable..

Most Likely: #6 Dinnr With Nicki C 2-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Right to Work 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Victory Dash 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Siberian Heart 6-1 3rd

6th: MSW, 3+, 6f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Where have these been hiding? A mind-bending late year 3+ MSW that attracted a superb group of colts and geldings that seemingly had issues delaying their careers. Six of the 9 were procured for sale prices of $170,000-$400,000, an average of $251,000, while Fred and Jenine Sahadi have a homebred Dynaformer colt, and Diamond A/Richard Mandella a FuPeg firster that’s working well. Mandella also sends a debuting 4yo Unbridled Song from Spendthrift! Bob Baffert offers a Songandaprayer gelding for Jacobs & Pegram that’s toting 4 straight :59 five-eighth drills. All in all, a fascinating cast..

Best Value: #6 Horowitz 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Quoted 5-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Launching Pad 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Discontent 3-1 4th

$1 Exacta (7-9) Paid $22.60
$1 Trifecta (7-9-6) Paid $79.80
$1 Superfecta (7-9-6-1) Paid $148.60

7th: CLM, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Spirit of Cochise 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Fort Funston 4-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Bad Boy 2-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Usurp 5-2 WON

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #9 Marquet Rebel 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Corkynphilys Flyer 10-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Fortunate Victory 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Zohan 7-2 2nd
High 5 Play: #5 Daily Suds 20-1 8th

<$225 P6 Play:

3: 6-7
4: 6-7
5: ALL
6: 6-7
7: 5
8: 2-9

2x2x7x2x1x2 = 112 x $2 = $224

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 3-4-6-7
6: 6-7-9
7: 3-5
8: 2-9-10

4x3x2x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

JON WHITE’S P6 PLAY

3: 1-2-6
4: 2-6-7
5: 1-2-4-6
6: 1
7: 6
8: 3-6-12

3x3x4x1x1x3 = 108 x $2 = $216