Focus of first full Saturday of winter action includes a nice sprint stakes card at Gulfstream that unfortunately appears certain to have to deal with steady rain and cold, and a $75k carryover skein at Santa Anita and $40k Super High 5 C/O in the 9th.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Cravin Caden 3-1 4th
Best Value: #3 SCR
Next Best: #7 Systemic Risk 5-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Desert Lord 5-1 2nd

5th: 28th Spectacular Bid, 3yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Quality involved here has potential to do enough the rest of the year to earn this listed event a grading.. Am perplexed over employment of #3 Wildcat Frankie (7-2) whose outrageous debut leaves him highly susceptible to regression, though wet strip could be a delight for him with Wildcat Heir progeny winning at an eye-popping 32.4% over off-going..

Best Value: #7 Grand Times 4-1 7th
Most Likely: #2 Discreetly Mine 5-2 4th
Next Best: #5 Westover Wildcat 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Wildcat Frankie 7-2 2nd

6th: 28th Sugar Swirl (G3), F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Very deep and tricky group with the potentially wet surface a difficult addition to an already tough equation.. May cover 5-2 ML fave #8 Thunders Dove (spotty worktab for return) and 2nd choice #1 Bold Union (spotting weight to field) in multis but want prices within race..

Best Value: #2 D’Wild Ride 6-1 6th
Most Likely: #4 Tar Heel Mom 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Pretty Prolific 8-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Saratoga Tango 20-1 7th

7th: 55th Mr. Prospector (G3), 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Note that very sloppy conditions would find Pletcher scratching Munnings from the proceedings..

Most Likely: #2 Custom for Carlos 3-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Presto Change O 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 SCR
Super Add: #8 Starforaday 8-1 4th

8th: 1st GP Turf Sprint, 4+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Weather issue threatens this inaugural lawn dash which then totally complicates the P4 plays..

Most Likely: #8 Hockeythehayman 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Little Nick 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Hatfield 8-1 WON
Super Add: #6 T. D. Vance 3-1

9th: 29th Old Hat (G3), 3yo, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Cuff Me 3-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Carphonic 4-1 11th
Best Value: #6 Dances With Ashley 6-1 9th
Super Add: #10 Malibu Legacy 12-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

For now, let’s assume we get the rain and the turf sprint stays on the grass..

6: 2-3-4-6-8-9
7: 2-4-8-9
8: 8
9: 5-6-7-9-10-11

6x4x1x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

10th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-CAME OFF THE TURF (Super)

Most Likely: #3 SCR
Best Value: #2 SCR
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #4 Blushing Dixie 5-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-8-9
8: 4-5-8
9: 5-6-11
10: 2-3-4-8

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Stylin Deputy 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Blue Tambourine 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 It’s Partytime 3-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Heavy Kitty 6-1 9th

5th: CLM, 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Spot the Diplomat 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #5 Self Insured 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Stand Tall 8-5 7th

6th: 9 Paseana H., F&M-4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 St. Trinians 7-2 WON
Best Value: #6 My Baby Baby 9-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Floating Heart 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 You Lift Me Up 9-2

7th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Locksley Hall 5-2 5th
Best Value: #2 El Mirage King 12-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Kuro 5-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Mister Do It 3-1 3rd

8th: 73rd San Pasqual H. (G2), 4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Nownownow 9-2 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Furthest Land 8-5 7th
Next Best: #1 Cherokee Artist 9-2 6th
Super Add: #4 Neko Bay 3-1 WON

9th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Swiss Ski 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #4 Stormy Game 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Turkish Victory 3-1 WON
High 5 Play: #8 Little Bro 30-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-8-9
5: 2
6: 6-7
7: 1
8: 1-3-7
9: 1-4-7/SCR-11

4x1x2x1x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-7-9
7: 1-2
8: 1-3-7
9: 1-4-7/SCR-11

3x2x3x3 = $54

Got too cute trolling for big score Thursday at Gulfstream, and in doing so omitted 9-2 Crescenda in the 6th and even money Eskendereya in the feature. Luckily Gus Alonso was on the beam tabbing all four quad winners on top keying a $240 hit on his $50 suggestion. $112 7th race triple (and $538 super) were the things that I was able to offer up, and that at least made the day marginally successful.

Eskendereya victory over Thank U Phillippe and Middle of the Nite was OK if not spectacular. Splits suggest there isn’t a lot in here to get excited about, as the winner got quarters of :24.3, :23.0 (:47.3), :24.0 (:47.0), :25.0 (:49.0). By way of follow up to Wednesday’s Santa Anita soph ALW, Kettle River received a solid 89 Beyer for his win. More Gulfstream action today before the big stakes card Saturday. Rain apparently a part of the Hallandale forecast for tomorrow though…

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 1m (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #6 Power Rules 10-1 6th
Most Likely: #3 Fitzaslew 5-2 4th
Next Best: #12 Home Field 5-1 WON
Super Add: #11 Danseurs Nobles 6-1 11th

7th: CLM, 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 What a Prince 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Mint Maker 20-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Concorde’s Tune 4-1 WON
Super Add: #9 Key Largo 12-1 10th

8th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Battle Plan 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Cross Village 10-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Colors Flying 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Roddickton 15-1 4th

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-4+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Proud Osceola 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Adelina Rose 5-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Taratori Girls 10-1 8th
Super Add: #2 Tatibitati 6-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-6-11-12
7: 1-3-5-6-7-9
8: 2-9
9: 1-8-9

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Very entertaining day of racing Wednesday with Aqueduct carryover, quality action at Gulfstream and a meaningful sophomore ALW at Santa Anita to cap the day. Unfortunately, Big A again produced an inside biased racetrack that propelled many of the winners and compromised the stalker-closers. Like the surface on December 30th that Andy Serling and Eric Donovan cover on this week’s “Trips (Part I) and Traps (Part II)”, this card’s results should be noted for runbacks. Caution is advised as well for the next couple days until track super Glenn Kozak can ‘fair up’ the strip.

Second half of Gulfstream card had quality events that delivered rather chalky results, with the exception of Bennie Stutts’ 20-1 Lemon Spice in the $50k CLM 5th, and hitting the $91.10 P4 at least covered the investment. Most notable from Wednesday at Hallandale was that three more outside posted horses won the 3 turf routes. With the temp rail out at 72 feet, or 84, the grass course has its’ optimal width allowing out-posted runners a fair opportunity to work out a trip. It is when the rail is at 0 feet that the inside horses get the bigger edge around a tighter course. (Dick Powell of Brisnet explained this scenario carefully two winters ago and I’ll try to find the essay.)

The highlight Wednesday from both and Derby Trail and financial standpoint, was the Santa Anita allowance for freshly-minted 3yo’s that was won by Best Value tab Kettle River. The Stonerside-bred son (now Darley-owned) of Congaree did get a perfect trip behind Baffert’s pace-setting Quiet Invader, but finished well and looked good winning back to back routes. Eion Harty trains, and clearly will set sights on the SA soph stakes next. Hawaiian Springs was a late-arriving second for Kathy Walsh, and looks like a solid grinding type that will relish 9f or more and figures to also be stakes bound. The performances of the two Baffert trainees were credible but hardly encouraging from a classics standpoint. With the $23 winner keying the mutuels, the result produced a handsome $168 triple that made the day a success for me and hopefully for you as well.

Back to Gulfstream for a P4 try today. Note that Fair Grounds has a $35k carryover if you are so inclined…

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Harlan’s Princess 3-1
Best Value: #9 Prizes Galore 10-1
Next Best: #2 By Land Or by Sea 4-1
Super Add: #5 Oasis the Jak 12-1

7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Toocleverforwords 3-1
Next Best: #2 Speak Easy Gal 4-1
Best Value: #9 Tottie 12-1
Super Add: #12 Salsa Star 6-1

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Thank U Phillippe (3-1): Wolfson colt alternating efforts; Has faced quality..
Best Value: #10 Remand (12-1): Another savvy buy? Working bullets, moves up on dirt, sits trip..
Next Best: #3 Bank the Eight (6-1): DistHumor bay sharp in debut behind Rule; Aced MDN next and fits here..
Super Add: #6 Eskendereya (5-2): Anticipated Pletcher runner surprised breaking MDN in off/turf juvy stake..

9th: MSW, 3yo, 1m (Super)

NOTE SCR OF #2 and #5 WHO WERE IN ORIGINAL SELECTIONS AND THAT #13 (AE) ARGENTARII WILL BE RUNNING…

Most Likely: #13 Argentarii 5-2
Best Value: #10 Magic Lion 10-1
Next Best: #6 World Record 7-2
Super Add: #9 Chasing Ted 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-9
7: 2-5-9
8: 4-10
9: 3-4-6-8-9-10-12-13

3x3x2x8 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Opening Day at Gulfstream always provides a welcome addition to the winter racing landscape, and additionally Sunday provided some comic relief. Starting with a torturous rendition of the National Anthem by someone’s niece, through the third race ‘gate stuck on racetrack’ hijinks, you can count on Hallandale to generate some snickering. Kidding aside, racing was good and nice full fields abound through the first cards being drawn. Had a square exotics and a couple P3’s but missed the P4. Hope you did OK…

Aqueduct back with a quirky carryover card today, and I also looked at the 2nd half of the South Florida action. Santa Anita ALW race (6th at 6:36pm EST) has focus of Derby Trail watchers with Baffert returning The Program and Quiet Invader, and Kathy Walsh sending intriguing Hawaiian Springs back after notable debut score at HOL. Jon White’s Arcadian P6 play is below for your consideration as well…

Today on ATR, the AQU 8th and 9th, GP 7th-9th and SA 5th-6th…

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Pretty Cozzy 3-5 WON
Best Value: #5 Laylaben 6-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Favorite Colors 5-1 3rd

5th: S/HCP, F&M-4+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Campo would do well to write more of these conditionals, ($15k or less CLM-2007-2009), as this is a fascinating group with many possible winners..

Best Value: #1 Chippewa Court 5-1 6th
Most Likely: #4 Successful Sarah 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Quiet Mover 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 French Song 15-1 4th

6th: NYB-MDN CLM,

Going to play against overly obvious #7 Kill the Joker (2-1) within race, and protect in P3’s only..

Most Likely: #10 Tocco d’Oro 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Cathy’s Rascal 8-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Shotgun Bandit 4-1 WON
Super Add: #8 My Friend Sandy 6-1 6th

7th: CLM, 4yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Like the 5th, this is an open affair with the short price faves (#2 Daily Star and #6 Goodday) no better than the next 4 choices whom I’ll mix and match at nice numbers.. Tough, fun race..

Best Value: #7 Yo Karakorum 6-1 2nd
As Likely: #5 Selina Moon 5-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Imandra 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Ravenous 8-1 4th

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #5 Embrace Change 8-5 WON
Best Value: #6 Primed to Be Ready 4-1 7th
Next Best: #1a (POE) Sugar Trade 3-1 6th

9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (Super)

Most Likely: #1 Up Up Away 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Allthesingleladys 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Sheria 2-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Tall Timbercowgirl 20-1 9th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 7
5: 1-3-4
6: 6-10
7: 4-5-7-9
8: 5-6
9: 1-5

1x3x2x4x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-10
7: 4-5-7-9
8: 1-5-6
9: 1-5-8

2x4x3x3 = $72

GULFSTREAM PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Tremndous betting race..

Most Likely: #1 (POE) Custer 6-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Duveen 15-1 8th
Next Best: #5 Why Tonto 6-1 6th
Super Add: #6 Gimme Credit 8-1 5th

6th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 1m (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Sister Resistor 6-1 WON
Most Likely: #2 Ms. Vanenzza 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Imaginary Saint 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 In the Rough 8-1 5th

7th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Academy Run 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Auston’s Sure Cure 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Justy 3-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Dug In 15-1 5th

8th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Tight Precision 3-1 WON
Best Value: #8 Susie’s Gal 10-1 10th
Next Best: #3 Diamond Dina 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Cherokee Queen 12-1 2nd

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #1 (POE) Tick Tick Boom 8-1 3rd
Most Likely: #10 Alys 6-1
Next Best: #11 Aregulationhottie 7-2 WON
Super Add: #4 Alexana 6-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-9
7: 1-3-7-8-10
8: 8-10
9: 1-4-10-11-12

3x5x2x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

.50 Pick 4 (5/10/9,10,13,14/11,13) Paid $91.10

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 The Program (2-1): Merits edge here but not convinced he’s a classic horse.. 3rd
Next Best: #6 Hawaian Springs (3-1): Gives experience but the one you may want going forward.. 2nd
Best Value: #2 Kettle River (6-1): Being ignored, but Stonerside product scored on stretchout last.. WON
Super Add: #2 Coloursoftheglen (15-1): Irish import broke MDN on synth; Bred to go long.. 6th

$1 Exacta (2-6) Paid $50.90
$1 Trifecta (2-6-4) Paid $168.40

JON WHITE’S <$100 P6 PLAY:

3: 1-4-7
4: 3-5-6-8
5: 8
6: 4
7: 1-3-7-11
8: 9

3x4x1x1x4x1 = 48 x $2 = $96

Good luck!
Steve

Thoroughly crazy late afternoon results Saturday at Aqueduct produced some of the most outrageous payoffs that we will likely see all year. The insanity commenced when Colum O’Brien sent out utterly impossible Finger Lakes import Hudson Heights at 110-1 who ran down even money choice Empty Wallet. Jackie Davis then booted home 30-1 Gold Vendetta for Ronan Assef, tripping your run of the mill $4,226 Daily Double and $10,477 P3. As if those weren’t enough, and just when it seemed off the pace was the ticket, Davey Cohen proceeded to upset the Count Fleet with Tony Dutrow-Rick Porter PHA invader Laus Deo via the wire to wire method. That result triggered a $32,075 Pick 3… as big as three race payout as I’ve ever seen.

Needless to say, the sequence produced a carryover of $35k which will wait until Wednesday with Sunday’s cancellation in Jamaica. Hope you had anything in the late races yesterday! Gulfstream opens today, and I looked at the whole fun card thanks to a request from ‘Bush’ Holcombe at the Pilot House Marina’s Glass Bottom Bar in Key Largo. Bush is bringing a busload of Glass Bottom patrons to Hallandale for today’s opener, and most will be visiting a racetrack for the first time. Hope my opinions get them off to a great start as racegoers and congrats/thanks to Bush for trying to make new players out of his friends and patrons! If you don’t have one yet, that could be everyone’s best resolution for 2010… To make friends and their friends into racetrack patrons!

GULFSTREAM PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: MSW, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Causeway’s Kin 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Inheritor 12-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Grand Captain 9-5 WON
Super Add: #9 Maria’s Pass 5-1 8th

2nd: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Unbridled Heat 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Green Vegas 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Mannington 3-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Right of Way 6-1 5th

3rd: CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

NO CONTEST.. GATE STUCK ON COURSE..

Most Likely: #3 Cake Walk 5-2
Best Value: #11 Ms. N. Tarsia 10-1
Next Best: #9 Smart City Doc 6-1
Super Add: #8 Thewifedoesntknow 5-1

4th: MSW, 3yo-F, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 So Posh 12-1 8th
Most Likely: #10 Alluring Power 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Elarose 10-1 11th
Super Add: #9 Never Quicker 7-2 WON

5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Encanto Park 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Doctor Carina 12-1 WON
Next Best: #1 SCR
Super Add: #3 Cagey Girl 8-1 4th

6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 1m (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Alma d’Oro 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Birdrun 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Blank Check 12-1 6th
Super Add: #9 Saratoga Sinner 8-1 5th

7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Blues Street 7-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Carson Hall 12-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Americain 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Lemon Cream Pie 4-1 2nd

8th: Hal’s Hope (G3), 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Quality Road 6-3 WON
Best Value: #5 Le Grand Cru 5-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Harlem Rocker 3-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Congressional Page 15-1 3rd

9th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #4 General Song 7-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Blue Tape 20-1 12th
Next Best: #1 (POE) The Director 4-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Michael Rules 6-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 7-12
7: 1-3-4-5
8: 2-5-7
9: 1-3-4-9-10-11

2x4x3x6 = 144 x .50 = $72

Good luck!
Steve