Since coming within a horse of the Wednesday Gulfstream C/O hit, have promptly picked 2 totally obvious winners in the next 13 races while not remotely close in the other 11. Not sure if the poor play is a backlash from Wednesday miss or old fashioned lousy handicapping. It is notable that the Hallandale strip has become rather glib with the increase in the South Florida temperatures. Best graded stakes action is at Santa Anita today with the San Rafael, Santa Ynez and San Fernando, as well as a $70k carryover, while the grassy and overflow Dania Beach and Marshua’s River highlight the GP slate.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, 4+, 8.5f-Inner Turf (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Very curious MSW lawn route featuring handful of multi-try losers and smattering of less suspect fresh faces. #11 Ya Gotta Have Soul is a half brother of Tale of Ekati, and Perfect Drift full bro #12 Ambergris Caye makes his 2nd start here. J. Jerkens’ #13 (AE) Dynamoor would be a use if he were to draw in. Tough call but will play around with some prices for fun..

Best Value: #12 Ambergris Caye 12-1 8th
Most Likely: #13 Dynamoor 5-2 WON
Next Best: #8 Forgive Me 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Fearless 10-1 6th

6th: 2nd Dania Beach, 3yo, 1m-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Crazy fun betting race.. Demand value because this is wide open..

Best Value: #1 City Trooper 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #7 Bim Bim 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Raging Wit 10-1 7th
Super Add: #10 Call Shot 12-1 3rd

7th: CLM/N23L, 4+, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Invisible Star 6-1 10th
Most Likely: #5 Polished 3-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Mogul Maker 4-1 5th
Super Add: #3 South Fork Lodge 6-1 2nd

8th: 8th Marshua’s River, F&M-4+, 8.5f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Scolara 4-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Lomaki 15-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Backseat Rhythm 6-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Romacaca 8-1 2nd-DH

9th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Obligingly 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Broken Home 8-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Mighty Score 5-1 7th
Super Add: #11 Todd Got Even 6-1 WON

10th: ALW/N2X, 4+, 9f-Outer Turf (Super)

Best Value: #3 Prince of Wealth 12-1 5th
Most Likely: #10 Pinckney Hill 5-2 WON
Next Best: #4 Picou 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #2 Sincero 20-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-5-7-9
8: 1-4-5-7-12-13
9: 6-7
10: 3-4-10

4x6x2x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

SANTA ANITA

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Heroi Do Bafra 3-1 2nd-DH
Best Value: #1 Absolute Glory 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Changing 7-2 WON
Super Add: #8 Mr. Wolverine 4-1 5th

5th: 59th Santa Ynez (G2), 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating and deep edition of this soph filly standard..

Most Likely: #5 She’s Funomenal 9-5 5th
Next Best: #2 Franny Freud 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Switch 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #4 Amen Hallelujah 3-1 WON

6th: CLM, 4+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cavanal 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #1 Premiere Flyer 12-1 10th
Next Best: #6 Major General 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 LATE SCR

7th: 58th San Fernando (G2), 4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Papa Clem 3-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Mythical Power 4-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Mr. Hot Stuff 8-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Rendezvous 9-2 3rd

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 SURFER GIRL 9-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Bella Roja 10-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Oui Say Oui 5-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Rosey de Megeve 6-1 4th

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 5.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #13 We Are One 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Sarabella Mia 5-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Glory Forever 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Sombre 5-1 4th
High 5 Play: #8 Sister Lucy 15-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-4-5-8
5: 2-5
6: 1-3
7: 4-6
8: 7
9: 3-5-13

4x2x2x2x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-3
7: 3-4-5-6
8: 6-7-9
9: 3-5-13

2x4x3x3 = $72

Thursday Gulf carry sequence was every bit as difficult as advertised, and the three winners deserved every bit of the nearly $60,000 it returned. Even the lowest priced winner in the sextet, the 3-2 Powder Princess in the feature, came in a difficult event that required several includes in the short field. Once yopu fold in overlaid 14-1 Cruzatte (4-1 ML) in the 5th, tough to love Kimmel runner Khancord Kid (12-1) in the 7th, $11.20 Our Dreamette in the 4th and $13.00 Odysseus in the nightcap, and you can see how challenging this Pick Six was. Clearly, Wednesday was the day that will be remembered as one that got away… Hope you did OK.

Oaklawn Park commences perhaps its’ most eagerly anticipated season yet today, and it looks like a reasonably approachable card at GP in advance of another good weekend of winter racing.

GULFSTREAM PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 King Andrew 10-1 2nd
Most Likely: #3 Luvandgo 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Echo in Eternity 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Fastus Cactus 6-1 5th

5th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Vee 7-2 4th
Next Best: #11 Lady Amira 4-1 11th
Best Value: #4 Glorious Memory 20-1 8th
Super Add: #7 Karen Sue’s Kitten 8-1 12th

6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Brandy Bai 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #11 Tora 3-1 8th
Best Value: #12 Bedside Story 15-1 10th
Super Add: #7 La Tetanic 6-1 5th

7th: MSW, 3yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Muhaawara 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Sarah and Me 12-1 5th
Next Best: #2 What’s the Verdict 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Ahh 15-1 10th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Qualia 9-5 WON
Best Value: #7 Argyle Pink 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Film Charm 2-1 4th
Super Add: #6 French Dip 6-1 2nd

9th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #7 Saint Jude 6-1 2nd
Most Likely: #10 Gold Medallion 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Sea of Sea 4-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Indy Scent 6-1 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-11-12
7: 2-3-5
8: 1-3-7
9: 3-6-7-10

4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

Flirted agonizingly with Gulfstream P6 carryover hit Wednesday as play ran the table before being thwarted in the nightcap by 12-1 Tagg-Lael winner Sun Pennies. $208 conso was OK for the effort, ($624 back if you played the $192 ticket), but several including Gus Alonso saw the first time turf and stretchout price play. (Gus caught the $451.50 P4 using Sun Pennies too.)

$13.80 Streamin Heat keyed the $80 triple ($1) in the 5th, a nice hit mid-card that helped things along. Hope you did well. Willing to try again today though the sequence looks even more difficult than yesterday’s with two cheap claimers to start the skein, a turf sprint to begin the late P4 and a brutally deep MSW nightcap to wrap it all up …

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Meadow Ashlee 7-2
Best Value: #1 Sweetsouthernstar 15-1
Next Best: #5 Our Dreamette 4-1
Super Add: #12 Our Mike Mike 12-1

5th: CLM, 4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Exceedingly tough group of dime claimers going 9 panels..

Best Value: #6 Blues Brother 12-1
Most Likely: #9 Run Smart One 7-2
Next Best: #10 Spark of Humor 8-1
Super Add: #11 Targe 12-1

6th: CLM, 4+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 Possetothemax 3-1
Best Value: #4 Bullet From Abroad 4-1
Next Best: #2 Lettie’s Relic 4-1
Super Add: #1 Dancingall Theway 8-1

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

This is a volatile heat with all but the rail horse capable of winning..

Most Likely: #3 Sheikh’s Serenade 9-5
Best Value: #6 Bhangaloo Ruby 10-1
Next Best: #2 Powder Princess 2-1
Super Add: #5 Wyatt’s Women 4-1

8th: ALW/N1X, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Agapantha 8-1
Most Likely: #2 Marita Sangarita 4-1
Next Best: #4 In Perpetuity 7-2
Super Add: #12 Ms. Thanksgiving 6-1

9th: MSW, 3yo, 7f (Super)

Race that appears likely to produce large number of ‘real’ horses.. City Wolf comes in with expectations of being Ghostzapper and City Zip’s brother, while several more have already shown some talent..

Most Likely: #3 Odysseus 6-1
Best Value: #9 Storm on the Moon 8-1
Next Best: #7 Pow Wow 3-1
Super Add: #4 Forward Hatch 4-1

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-10
5: 6-9
6: 11
7: 2-3-5-6
8: 2-10
9: 3-7-9

2x2x1x4x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 11-14
7: 2-3-5-6-7
8: 2-4-10
9: 3-4-5-7-9

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Good luck!
Steve

Had strong start to first half of Sunday carryover slate at Aqueduct taking first three, before the cheese slid off the cracker. Off the pace Ruthless winner Indian Burn then added insult to injury derailing the P4 play which paid a healthy $736.50. The sextet returned a very square $14,900 in a sequence that was totally fair featuring 4 chalky winners, one 13-2 horse (Wicked Climb), and the 7-1 stake winner. Hope you did OK… Nearly a $50k pot at Gulfstream Wednesday on a dangerous sequence filled with big fields.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: CLM/N3L, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Run Carly Run 5-2 6th
Next Best: #3 Deona 4-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Lovely Vanessa 5-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Proseca 8-1 8th

5th: CLM, F&M-4+, 5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

As always, turf sprint provides possibility of random result with half the field possible with the right trip..

Most Likely:#8 Streamin Heat 6-1 WON
Best Value: #12 Fly Express 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Summer Flight 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #1 Collar 12-1 3rd

6th: CLM, 4+, 1m (.50 P4, P3, DD, Super)

Bottom level claimers, featuring the venerable Bandit Nailhead, now 9 (!).. Always possiblity of jump up winners in these events knowing some veteran may being feeling good on this particular day.. Adding to confusion is fact that three very eligible runners are sitting in AE slots 13-14-15, so be sure to check the SCR’s and CHG’s.. Not a welcome sight in the P6 or great way to start the late quad..

Best Value: #10 Wardyan 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #13 Decaf Again 2-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Bandit Nailhead 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #12 Trippedoutofadream 6-1 6th

7th: ALW/N1X, 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

With the nightcap, one of two interesting turf routes for sophomores, this one for colts/geldings, the 9th for fillies.. Kenneally talked of good development of sure-to-save-ground Asphalt when guesting on Monday’s ATR, but he is among what looks like a number of talented lawn-going youngsters with upside.. Brutally tough event..

Best Value: #9 On Vacation 8-1 5th
Most Likely: #1 Asphalt 3-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Thunder Perfect 6-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Forever Awesome 12-1 8th

8th: OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Formidable 8-1 WON
Most Likely: #11 He’s So Chic 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Starship Valor 12-1 5th
Super Add: #13 Prince Omar 10-1 11th

9th: MSW, 3yo-F, 8.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #11 Lyrique 3-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Southern Blues 4-1 10th
Best Value: #8 Tesoro de Amor 20-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Provence 8-1 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 2-3-5-9
5: 8-12
6: 10-13
7: 1-9
8: 7
9: 1-8-11

4x2x2x2x1x3 = 96 x $192

$2 Pick 6 (3/8/2,9,13,14,15,16/1,8/1,3,7/10) Paid $208.00 (5OF6) X 3 = $624.00

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 8-10-12-13
7: 1-4-5-9
8: 7-9-11
9: 1-8-11

4x4x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Saturday ended in frustration with harrowing losses in the Gulfstream stakes P4 and late Santa Anita quad which combined for nearly $3,000 in payout. Upon review, cannot be unhappy with the 6x4x1x6 .50 try at Hallandale that fell short on the singling of Hockeythehayman in the new GP Turf Sprint. The idea was sound, and though the Wes Ward runner came up a length short of ‘Best Value’ 3rd choice Hatfield, the structure enabled me to have $13 Pretty Prolific and $64 Richiegirlgonewild on the ticket.

Had Hockeythehayman gotten up, the return would still have been terrific with the 30-1+ winner of the Old Hat a race later. A conventional approach to the play would not have had the big price of the sequence who was included due to the outstanding wet track stats of her sire Wildcat Heir. At Santa Anita however, by simply leaving San Pasqual 4th choice Neko Bay off the ticket, I cost us all the very generous $880. Had the winners of each event in the P6 somewhere in the tabs as well, but managed 3/6 in the carryover try.

On the plus side, the information and conversations from Friday’s ATR should have helped a lot of you hit at Gulfstream particularly. Mike Welsch’s identification of the Fall Highweight at Aqueduct as a super key race helped point out Hatfield’s merits, and though I strayed from my on air choice in the Spectacular Big on paper, Tony Dutrow’s A Little Warm got plenty of dap. St. Trinians came through in the Paseana as touted by Rick Hammerle as well. Hope you did OK. Carryover abound today with Philadelphia ($99k), Gulfstream ($32k) and Aqueduct ($32k) all boasting bonus pots in their sextet pools.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MDN CLM, 4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Judge Alex 5-1 8th
Best Value: #1 Roma Di Notte 20-1 4th
Next Best: #12 Fortyninegeorgest. 5-2 WON
Super Add: #10 Rubinstein 12-1 2nd

5th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Marina Market 9-2 WON
Best Value: #8 Platinum Couple 8-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Crafty Mark 6-1 3rd

6th: NYB-MSW, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #11 No More Stress 5-2 WON
Best Value: #9 Lady Gracenote 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Perseverence 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #6 Downtown Hottie 12-1 2nd

7th: NYB-CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #11 May Day Now 4-1 6th
Best Value: #6 Client Eight 12-1 8th
Next Best: #1a Seeking Eldorado 5-2 10th
Exotics Use: #2 Wicked Climb 6-1 WON

8th: 33rd Ruthless, 3yo-F, 6f (DD)

Best Value: #1 E Z Passer 5-1 5th
Most Likely: #2 Funny Feeling 8-5 3rd
Next Best: #4 Wild News 7-5 4th

9th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #8 Landlash 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Principesa Heather 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Classy Jet 7-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Magical Solution 4-1 WON

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-3-10-12
5: 2-6-8
6: 11
7: 6-11
8: 1-2
9: 8-12

4x3x1x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 11
7: 1-2-6-11
8: 1-2-4
9: 1-2-8-12

1x4x3x4 = $48