Got in a couple of modest hits Friday but fell short on the P4’s starting the year at Aqueduct rather meakly. Hope you did OK… Haven’t delved too deeply into the weekend but glanced at late Big A quad and will wade into Gulfstream opener Sunday. $115k carryover at Santa Anita to consider too, and Gus Alonso has opinions below…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NYB-CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Empty Wallet 5-2
Best Value: #5 Crazy Charlie 9-2
Next Best: #9 Carter’s Store 7-2
Super Add: #2 Zeppies Shadow 20-1

7th: NYB-OC/N2X, 4+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2e Fried entry 5-1
Best Value: #3 Strummer 12-1
Next Best: #6 William Thomas 7-2

8th: 35th Count Fleet, 3yo, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Ibboyee 8-5
Best Value: #8 Our Commander 10-1
Next Best: #5 Turbo Speed 7-2

9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 4+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #6 L. C. Bulgari 8-1
Most Likely: #8 Golden Boychick 5-2
Next Best: #4 Kid Freud 9-2

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-5-9-10
7: 2-3
8: 2-5-8
9: 4-6-8

4x2x3x3 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

Conclusion to 2009 was a downer with poor results other than a P3 run mid-card and a pair of minor triples. Mandatory payout P6 carryover at Aqueduct proved well worth trying though as 5 of 6 returned $13,800 and 4 of 6 conso $120.00! Hope you did OK and had a great New Year’s Eve. Again, best wishes for a healthy, happy 2010 to you and your loved ones!

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: S/ALW, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Rapide One 6-1 7th
Most Likely: #6 Kidstrong Fever 3-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Gimmeanotherwink 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1e Dutrow entry 5-2 2nd/6th

2nd: NYB-MSW, 3yo, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Early Argument 4-1 2nd/3rd
Best Value: #2 Johannesburg Smile 6-1 WON
Next Best: #9 Bishop of Nola 6-1 9th
Exotics Use: #5 Prince Cody 20-1 8th

3rd: 89th Interborough H., F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Casanova Killer 6-1 4th
Most Likely: #5 Awesome Ashley 7-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Camera Oculta 8-1 5th

4th: MDN CLM, F&M-4+, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Best Value: #5 Amelia the Cat 4-1 6th
Most Likely: #7 Pleasant Sister 3-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Crafty Gem 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Awe So Beautiful 6-1 7th

5th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-4+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Two Moons 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #1 Doodlin 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Ampart Ridge 5-2 WON
Super Add: #5 Sorority Sister 7-2 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-2-4-5-7-8-9
3: 1-3-4-5
4: 5-7
5: 2

7x4x2x1 = $56

6th: MDN CLM, 4+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Talking Blues 5-2 WON
Best Value: #9 Mind Boggling 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Sweet On Bernice 8-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Bindle Stick 12-1 5th

7th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 No Questions 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #12 Wild Conga 3-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Elixer 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #10 Triple Honor 10-1 11th

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m-70y (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Star of New York 2-1 WON
Best Value: #9 Captain Sword 5-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Goodbyeandgoodluck 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Mighty Morris 10-1 2nd

9th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 1m-70y (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Platinum Couple 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Hard Iron 20-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Ferocious Won 3-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Vettriano 8-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-9
7: 2-9-10-12
8: 1-3-9
9: 5-7-8

2x4x3x3 = $72

$33 Indy’s Forum (4th) and $17 Cleric (6th), both beneficiaries of a strong gold rail Wednesday, helped create an ideal situation at Aqueduct with a mandatory payout $25k carryover on the year-ending afternoon card. The lone tally for me on the day was the 8th where $11 Mt. Glittermore keyed a nice $103.50 triple with Smokin Hero and Base Commander. Be sure to peruse the 12/30 charts and comments for horses that tried to rally from the two path out, as they were up against a very apparent speed track inside.

It’s been a very fun year which featured a number of highlights for those that follow the opinions here. The big Magna 5 hit in January and P6 score during the summer were obviously the most notable, but highly accessible P4 plays continued to offer consistantly solid returns. I hope you did well in 2009 and that we all get to experience another enjoyable and profitable year in 2010.

Thanks to everyone for their support and encouragement in 2009, and I offer my best wishes for a wonderful New Year of health and hapiness to all the ATR listeners/Derby Trailers and their families…

Steve

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Dixie Night Out 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 L L Flying Notes 12-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Mine Over Matter 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Major Star 7-2 3rd

5th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Very interesting race with many here possible..

Most Likely: #2 Clemens 3-1 6th
Next Best: #6 U.S. Calvary 5-1 7th
Best Value: #1 Hedge Fund 12-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Yes It’s the Truth 9-2 WON

6th: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Keep Thinking 2-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Ex Pat 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Greatsilvermoment 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 West End 10-1 6th

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 2yo, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Stormy’s Majesty 4-1 WON
Most Likely: #7 Vital Argument 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #9 Papa’s Nice Cat 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #2 Helvi 20-1 9th

8th: 71st Gallant Fox, 3+, 13f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Nite Light 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Reflect Times 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Borrowing Base 8-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Giant Chieftan 12-1 3rd

9th: NYB-CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Super)

Best Value: #1 Six Flings 5-1 4th
Most Likely: #2 Gargantua 9-2 5th
Next Best: #10 Good Karma 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Globemaster 8-1 7th

<$200 P6 Play:

4: 1-2-4-8
5: 2-6
6: 6-10
7: 4-7-9
8: 10
9: 1-2

4x2x2x3x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 6-10
7: 4-7-9
8: 4-7-9-10
9: 1-2-10

2x3x4x3 = $72

Came back strong Sunday from dreadful Saturday gaining 5/6 consolation on AQU carryover sextet ($324) as well as the modest $121 P4 at Arcadia. Hope you did well. Fun looking quad at Aqueduct today as holiday continues and we move to the new year..

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #10 Kid Tornado 5-1 3rd
Most Likely: #5 Haitian Sensation 7-2 8th
Next Best: #9 Dreamed Day 6-1 6th

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Frenchonionsoup 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Brecciate 5-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Citifest 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 Theartofcompromise 12-1 3rd

8th: OC/N3X, 3+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Smokin Hero 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Samhoon 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Mt. Glittermore 4-1 WON
Super Add: #5 Base Commander 5-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #1e Autry entry 8-1 4th
Most Likely: #12 Charging Hero 7-2 7th
Next Best: #11 Of All Times 2-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Castle Harbour 12-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-9-10
7: 2-4-6-8
8: 1-3-4-5-7
9: 1

3x4x5x1 = $60

Endured a comprehensively poor Saturday, miss-stepping repeatedly at every venue, and capped by selection of last 4 finishers in the 13 horse Malibu. As Mel Allen might say, “How about that?” Hope I didn’t completely drain your Christmas coffers, and we’ll try to get it back today on a $37,222 carryover card at rain-slogged Aqueduct and at Santa Anita where Lava Man makes his highly anticipated return in the San Gabriel.

Notable among the stakes results Saturday were CLOUDY’S KNIGHT topping a wonderful 9yo season in the G2 McKnight, THE USUAL Q.T. toying with the G3 Beaufort field, and M ONE RIFLE reprizing Bob Black Jack’s 2008 wire job win in the G1 Malibu. Jonathon Sheppard’s Cloudy’s Knight ends 2009 a head bob loss in the BC Marathon away from an undefeated campaign after more than 52 weeks on the shelf.

The two soph stakes winners on Arcadia’s opening day slate are both Cal-breds, continuing a bit of a trend started at Santa Anita Breeders’ Cup Weekend when Cal Flag and Dancing in Silk won events. Jim Cassidy’s Unusual Heat gelding has thoroughly come to hand in the second half of the year, and ends 2009 on a 6 race win streak including yesterday’s G3 and the G1 Hollywood Derby. Victor Espinoza utterly played with Beaufort field as The Usual Q. T. just kept to his task and jogged away from the field when asked, and figures to enter 2010 as this year’s version of Gio Ponti. M One Rifle returns trainer and co-breeder Bruce Headley to the Grade 1 sprint spotlight, and belied the expectation that taking a bulky field post to wire would be impossible.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Risky Rachel 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Silver Tax 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Downtown Hottie 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Strategic Missle 20-1 5th

5th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #12 Kaffiend 5-2 WON
Best Value: #7 Griffen Avenue 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Picnic Rock 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Pronto Pronto 6-1 5th

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Long Island Louie 2-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Capridge 15-1 WON
Next Best: #5 Ave. of the Pines 5-1 10th
Super Add: #11 Wana Play 9-2 9th

7th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Brutally tough $25k CLM..

Most Likely: #3 B. B. Best 9-2 7th
Next Best: #9 Commodore Way 3-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Untoppable 5-1 8th
Exotics Use: #4 O’Kid 6-1 3rd

8th: NYB-Alex M. Robb, 3+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 WISHFUL TOMCAT 2-5 WON
Best Value: #2 See More Spirit 12-1
Next Best: #5 Naughty New Yorker 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Pegasian 15-1 3rd

9th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (Super)

Best Value: #8 Boldly Successful 6-1
Most Likely: #9 Smooth Wind 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #7 Midwatch 3-1 WON
Super Add: #4 Bullara 6-1

@$250 P6 Carryover Play:

4: 1-2
5: 7-12
6: 1-6
7: 3-4-6-9
8: 1
9: 4-7-8-9

2x2x2x4x1x4 = 128 x $2 = $256

$2 Pick 6 (2,6,8/12,13,14/6/2/1/5,7,11,12,14) $81.00 (5 OF 6) x 4 = $324.00

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-5-6-11
7: 3-4-9-10
8: 1
9: 4-7-8-9

4x4x1x4 = $64

SANTA ANITA

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: 30th Cal Breeders’ Champion, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #7 La Nez..

Best Value: #2 Evening Jewel 4-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Camille C 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Warren’s Jitterbug 8-1 2nd

5th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Sir Bell 10-1 7th
Most Likely: #11 Zappa 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #12 Mind the Minister 4-1 4th
Super Add: #8 The Big Wig 15-1 5th

6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Irrefutable 5-2 WON
Best Value: #5 Uncle Greg 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Payment Approved 7-2 5th
Super Add: #4 Solar Rocket 4-1 4th

7th: 63rd San Gabriel (G2), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Proudinsky 5-2 WON
Next Best: #7 Loup Breton 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Cherokee Artist 8-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Lava Man 7-2 7th

8th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ventana 4-1 WON
Most Likely: #5 Bestdressed 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #7 Wiredfortwotwenty 5-2 5th

9th: MSW, 2yo, 1m-T (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #7 Ace of Aces 9-5 WON
Next Best: #9 Hockley 9-2 2nd
Best Value: #4 Royal Import 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Body Builder 8-1 4th
High 5 Play: #11 Albany Road 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-6-9
7: 2-3-4-7
8: 4-5-7
9: 7-9

3x4x3x2 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (9-3-4-5/7) 4 Correct Paid $121.90