Despite the scratchfest at Gulfstream when turf races were abandoned, P6 paid close to $40k and was hardly impossible. Personal play that had 4 winners was trimmed to $64 post-changes, and when seeing the final return, I was floored. Good news at Hallandale was the P4 hit for $243 and terrific $15.80 win mutuel on “OTT” standout Shift It in the 8th.

At Fair Grounds, concern over Pletcher’s Ailalea resulted in my leaving Oaks winner Quiet Temper (4th choice) off the P4 play which meant a miss of the $285 result. Overall, a good day and fun lead-up to today’s endless action. Hope you did well!

Meydan early before Fair Grounds and Turfway edge close to their respective meet ends with big Louisiana Derby and Lanes’ End Day cards. Last pass for the Magna 5 this week, and suggest you look at Gus Alonso’s advice on it as well as he’s come perilously close the last 2 weeks.

MEYDAN

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: Duty Free, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #11 Alexandros 10-1 14th
Most Likely: #15 Presvis 4-1 11th
Next Best: #1 Imbongi 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #5 Courageous Cat 6-1 9th

7th: Sheema Classic, 12f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Spanish Moon 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Mourilyan 20-1 13th
Next Best: #10 Buena Vista 10-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Precious Passion 9-2 16th

8th: World Cup, 10f (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Red Desire 10-1 11th
Best Value: #13 Mr. Brock 30-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Gitano Hernando 9-2 6th
Super Add: #10 Richard’s Kid 5-1 7th

<$50 P3 Play:

6: 1-11-15
7: 9-10-12-13
8: 2-3-10-13

3x4x4 = $48

Dick Powell’s Dubai World Cup Card Analysis

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: 59th Kenner, 3+, 6f (P3)

Most Likely: #5 Cash Refund 7-5 WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #4 Euroears 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Grand Traverse 8-1 4th

7th: 38th Crescent City Derby-LA, 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #8 Target Flash 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Heavenville 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #12 Pioneering Native 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Brave Day 20-1 9th

8th: 85th New Orleans H. (G2), 4+, 9f (P6, P3, Super)

No reason to accept short prices here..

Best Value: #7 Star Guitar 10-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Battle Plan 6-1 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Tone It Down 20-1 8th
Super Add: #6 Hold Me Back 8-1 9th

9th: 18th Muniz H. (G2), 4+, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #7 Baletti 8-1 8th
Most Likely: #4 El Caballo 4-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Blues Street 3-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Feels All Right 8-1 7th

10th: 97th Louisiana Derby (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #9 Stay Put (10-1): Caps Margolis’ amazing Nola season.. 5th
Next Best: #4 The Program (10-1): Being ignored in first dirt chance.. 7th
Exotics Use: #3 Fly Down (8-1): Reprize of Zito-Lezcano Gulf heroics.. 9th
Super Add: #2 Mission Impazible (8-1): OP trip impazible; Maragh a plus.. WON

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4-5-8-10-12
8: 2-7-9
9: 4-7
10: 2-3-4-9

6x3x2x4 = 144 x .50 = $72

10th: 3rd Grindstone, 3yo, 7.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Workin for Hops 7-5 WON
Best Value: #4 Striking Hight 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Daddy Forty Nice 9-2 6th
Super Add: #3 Night Vision 8-1 5th

TURFWAY PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: 24th Queen, F&M-4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Favorite (#8) is a big underlay here..

Most Likely: #7 Proud Heiress 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Rinterval 8-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Secret Gypsy 7-5 3rd
Super Add: #10 Silver Time 12-1 WON ($42.00)

6th: 16th Hansel, 3yo, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Cool Bullet 2-1 WON ($4.40)
Best Value: #7 Lucky Chuck 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Kera’s Kitten 5-2 5th
Super Add: #8 Strapping Groom 5-2 2nd

7th: 28th Bourbonette Oaks (G3), 3yo-F, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Cascading 4-1 9th
Best Value: #4 Helen Belen 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Orchestrator 5-1 WON ($16.60)
Super Add: #9 Age of Humor 5-1 2nd

8th: 25th Rushaway, 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Activity Report 4-1 7th
Best Value: #6 Instant Message 5-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Positive Split 8-5 4th
Super Add: #2 Lonesome Street 5-1 2nd

<$50 P4 Play:

5: 1-4-7-8-10
6: 1-3-4-7-8
7: 2
8: 1-2-5-6

5x5x1x4 = 100 x .50 = $50

9th: 39th Lane’s End (G2), 3yo, 9f (P4, P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)

With the Blue Grass, a race that feels marginalized by the advent of synthetics..

Most Likely: #1 Connemara 9-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Doubles Partner 10-1 8th
Next Best: #7 Northern Giant 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Vow to Wager 20-1 5th
High 5 Play: #8 Letsgetitonmon 20-1 6th

MAGNA 5

POST-SCRATCHES

A-LRL 10th: Johnson Mem., 3+, 9f

Most Likely: #3 Indian Dance 7-5
Best Value: #1 Zarroc 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Eddie C. 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Lord Justice 5-2 4th

B-SA 4th: CLM, 4+, 7f

Most Likely: #3 Changing 3-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Partywithlarryz 9-2 4th
Next Best: #2 Mind the Minister 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #1 SCR

C-GG 4th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 1m

Most Likely: #1 Miss Edgar 2-1 6th
Best Value: #4 Profound Elegance 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Category Ten 7-2 7th
Super Add: #6 Dark Delores 4-1 2nd

D-SA 5th: MSW, 4+, 6.5f-T

Most Likely: #2 Danzing Tribal 3-1
Best Value: #4 Thermal Wave 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Uncle Greg 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Sweet Maker 7-2 5th

E-GP 10th: 49th Pan American (G3), 4+, 12f-T

Most Likely: #7 Brass Hat 4-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Brother Nick 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Winchester 5-2 4th
Super Add: #5 Never On Sunday 3-1 2nd

<$100 P6 Play:

A: 1-2-3-4
B: 2-3-7
C: 1-4
D: 2
E: 2-3-5-7

4x3x2x1x4 = $96

The parade of implaussible winners refused to end Thursday at Gulfstream with $40 horses bookending the P6 sequence which again carried over after just three legs. Steve Klesaris produced the first 20-1 winner in Moose Man ahead of Steve DiMauro’s head-scratching wire job Alwaysacontest ($21.80) and George Weaver’s tough to like Molly Molly Molly ($35.80). That P3 was good for $9,200, a skein which outpayed the P4 ($8,602) that started with ‘Molly’ and ended with $42.80 Al’s Big Girl.

After two days of erratic results and the P6 pool at $117k, the irresistable Gulfstream situation threatens to drain the bankroll ahead of a big weekend of racing. In addition, the sequence ends with a $6,250 claiming affair that can could produce a horse you wouldn’t find with the ‘all’ button. Tough to invest heavily… Plus, don’t forget that the Fair Grounds Oaks card is also on today’s agenda!

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

OFF THE TURF — EXTENSIVE CHANGES

5th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Raising Timber 5-2 5th
Next Best: #5 Crack Thepat 5-1 WON ($7.40)
Best Value: #7 Close Range 6-1 6th
Super Add: #2 Expedition 3-1 4th

6th: S/ALW, 3yo, 1m — OFF THE TURF — (P3, DD)

Field SCR’d down to #’s 2-3-5-7

Most Likely: #5 Richie Rules 3rd
Next Best: #2 Concert Stage 2nd

7th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Maria’s Charm 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #10 Dancing Nick 10-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Triple Honor 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Mize the Big Cat 6-1 WON ($9.20)

8th: CLM/N3L, F&M-3+, 5f — OFF THE TURF — (P3, DD, Super)

#’s 1-2-3-4-5-7-11 remain after SCR’s

Best Value: #4 Shift It WON ($15.80)
Next Best: #2 Cheeca Storm 3rd

9th: CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f — OFF THE TURF — (DD, Super)

#’s 2-4-8-11-12 remain after SCR’s

Most Likely: #8 Omega Cat WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #2 Marija’s Wish 3rd
Next Best: #11 Bob’s Jawbreaker 2nd

10th: CLM, 4+, 9f (Super)

Uggh… Awfully difficult to place modest P6 wager with confidence when the anchor leg is a race like this: Inscrutible and generally inconsistent cheap claimers..

Most Likely: #4 Sleek John 4-1 WON ($4.60)
Best Value: #2 Charko 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Soy Latino 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Northern Academy 8-1 11th

<$75 P6 Play:

5: 4-5
6: 2-5
7: 6-10
8: 4
9: 2-8
10: 2-4

2x2x2x1x2x2 = 32 x $2 = $64

<$40 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-8-10
8: 2-4
9: 2-8-11
10: 2-4-11

4x2x3x3 = 72 x $.50 = $36

$0.50 Pick 4 Paid $243.35

FAIR GROUNDS

POST-EARLY SCRATCHES

6th: 24th Bienville, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #1 West Ocean 7-2 WON
Best Value: #10 Seeking Ms Shelly 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Northern Belle 9-2 5th
Super Add: #5 Coy Cat 3-1 4th

7th: 5th Crescent City Oaks-LA, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P4, P3, Super)

Best Value: #2 Daphne Angela 6-1 WON
Next Best: #1a (POE) Lunar Fest 9-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Conscions Contact 8-1 10th
Super Add: #9 Ladyzarbridge 7-2 3rd

8th: 42nd Bayou H., F&M-4+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Tizaqueena 9-5 WON
Next Best: #2 Never Retreat 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Category Seven 9-2 4th
Super Add: #5 A She’s Adorable 5-1 2nd

9th: 44th Fair Grounds Oaks (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Despite the flashy connections, it’s tough to be enthralled over 3-1 ML choice Ailelea who has been AWOL much of the year after promise-laden juvy campaign. Still hasn’t been around two turns, and while same can be said of Mambo Fever, at least she has form and a worthwhile tab. Note too that Tiffany Lass/SBD winner Jody Slew was uncertain for this after casting herself in her stall last week..

Most Likely: #4 Mambo Fever 6-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Visavis 8-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Ailalea 3-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Quiet Temper 7-2 WON

10th: MSW, 3yo-F, 5.5f-T (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #5 Eagle Hall 3-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Four Daughters 4-1 9th
Best Value: #6 Suekel 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #12 Little Egypt 12-1 4th
High 5 Play: #10 Elusive Temper 12-1 WON

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2
8: 2-3-4-5-6
9: 4-6-11
10: 4-5-6-10-12

2x5x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

Wednesday GP six sequence proved as ridiculous as anticipated to the point where 3 of 6 on a play was good for $111. Cheap quality of slate restricted interest in the wager whereby just $35k was bet into the $43,800 pool resulting in a $60k pot starting this afternoon.

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

5th: CLM, 4+, 5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Some way to start a P6 sequence.. NOTE that #13, #15 & #16 all draw in..

Most Likely: #8 Matt’s a Giant 6-1 7th
Best Value: #3 Heavyweight 10-1 5th
Next Best: #10 In Classic Fashion 7-2 9th
Super Add: #5 Silver Moose 12-1 8th

6th: S/ALW, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Omega Girl 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Laugh a Minute 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Verse Choir 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Manakco Star 15-1 7th

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

#16 (AE) Surround, from Bennie Stutts and the Burns Family, appears up against getting into the race, but is the clear pick if she does..

Most Likely: #16 (AE) SCR 3-1
Best Value: #1 Devastating Diva 12-1 10th
Next Best: #2 Beyond Our Reach 4-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 La Marseillaise 10-1 3rd

8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Late SCR
Next Best: #3 Algeiba 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Maxxam Xpress 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Clean Shot 4-1 WON

9th: CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Very fun betting race.. Intrigued by Fred Warren’s first time turf filly #6 Republican who is out of a Nureyev mare and by High Fly, himself a son of grass sire Atticus..

Best Value: #6 Republican 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Lady Aces 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #7 Write When Ready 5-2 WON
Super Add: #9 D’lucci Girl 4-1 3rd

10th:S/ALW, F&M-4+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Top pick and P6 single #1 Classical Fashion 6-5 has SCRATCHED..

Best Value: #3 Homeroom Angel 15-1 6th
Most Likely: #7 Prime Precision 6-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Tiger At Nite 4-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Phi Slamma Jamma 20-1 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-8-10
6: 8-9
7: 1-2
8: 4/SCR
9: 4-6-7-9
10: 3-7

3x2x2x1x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2-4-7-8
8: 3-4/SCR
9: 4-6-7-8-9
10: 3-6-7

5x2x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

Interesting Aqueduct double carryover Sunday had three big prices ($17.60; $26.20; $44.80) in advance of three under 1-1 chalks, and the $70k return seemed appropriate for what you would think had to be syndicate type tickets. Gulfstream has a multi-day P6 pool today of $48k that was delayed by race cancellations necessitated by the Calder virus scare Sunday. However, the sequence is peppered with very ‘cheap’ events and feels like it will produce some impossible results. My thoughts and Gus Alonso’s below…

GULFSTREAM PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #13 Proud and Salty 5-2 11th
Best Value: #7 I’m Keepin Score 15-1 10th
Next Best: #1 Hazel Marie 7-2 6th
Super Add: #11 Crown Glory 6-1 3rd

5th: CLM/N2L, 3yo, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 R Slick Fifty 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Milwaukee Wolf 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Samba Sarava 6-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Halo Coco 5-1 6th

6th: MDN CLM, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Chairman Tucker 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #10 Cool Joe Brown 6-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Song of Stars 4-1 WON
Super Add: #6 No Act 12-1 6th

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Another reason to tread lightly in this skien; Totally wide open affair..

Most Likely: #9 Cross Village 6-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Proud Style 15-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Stroll for Acure 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #8 Distant Strike 8-1 2nd

8th: CLM, 3yo-F, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Sweet Chantal 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Givonna Alyssa 6-1 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Halcyon Days 8-1 4th
Super Add: #5 Miss Bette M 10-1 5th

9th: S/ALW, 4+, 1m-T (Super)

Best Value: #1 Master Tassel 6-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Mecke Me Free 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #4 Kaufman 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Storm On the Track 20-1 5th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 13
5: 3-4-6-9
6: 4
7: 2-9
8: 3-7-10
9: 1-4-6

1x4x1x2x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 4-10
7: 2-3-4-6-8-9-10-11
8: 3-7-10
9: 1-4-6

2x8x3x3 = 144 x .50 = $72

Entertaining and solid day of action Saturday, with intense Florida Derby Day slate the feature attraction. Ice Box ($43.40) capped several weeks of positive speculation after the promise flashed in the Fountain of Youth, but make no mistake about fortuitousness of result given luck associated with the major pace collapse and photographic result. Rule ran a monumentally courageous race in defeat and may be hard-pressed to repeat that try any time soon.

The Nick Zito trained winner combined with 6-1 Society’s Chairman photo win over countrymate Rahy’s Attorney in the Appleton to boost the successful .50 P4 return to $411. Solid opinions in New York and off and on action throughout Hallandale card before Ice Box explosion made the day largely successful, though P6/P4 Aqueduct whiffs and Magna 5 miss built a $400+ hole to dig out of. Hope you did well and enjoyed the really good day of racing! Aqueduct Double Carryover of $135k is the focus today, and follows Dee Tee’s Kickin N Screamin in the Philly 3rd.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: NYB-CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m-70y (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Late SCR
Next Best: #1 Missing Link 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Ave. of the Pines 4-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Wheelsareoffthebus 5-1 7th

5th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 1m-70y (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Air Lord 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Admiralty 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Pink Viper 10-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Hard Iron 12-1 WON ($26.20)

6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 1m-70y (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #8 Raffinator 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Big Gavel 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Leatherhead 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Spicy Steve 3-1 8th

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Cromwell Alley 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Crescent’s Mon 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #1a Jimmy Vegas 4-5 WON ($3.50)

8th: Wheel Turns, F&M-4+, 6f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Hour Glass 6-5 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #1 What a Pear 12-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Lights Off Annie 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #7 Missunitednations 12-1 4th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super)

Most Likely: #5 K’s Revenge 1-1 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #9 My Pal Tom 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Hunter’s Score 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #2 Dixielore 12-1 8th

<$150 P6 Play:

4: 1-3/Late SCR-8
5: 4
6: 1-2-8-9
7: 1-8-9
8: 1-2
9: 5

3x1x4x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-8-9
7: 1-8-9
8: 1-2-7-8
9: 5

4x3x4x1 = $48