Derby slots at a premium; $139k C/O at Santa Anita
Big Derby Prep Saturday started and ended with a touch of heartbreak, as Santa Anita P6 carryover run fell three quarters of a length short behind wire winner Terrify. Three $53 consos and the $145 P4 hit helped defray the multi-race investments, but the modest $2k sextet mutuel was a preferable coda to the long afternoon.
Seven hours earlier, Dee Tee’s Lloydobler ran a brave 2nd after breaking sharp and fracturing a couple of challengers in the first quarter mile. John Hertler’s steadily-improving Calvello and Channing Hill wisely confronted Mig and Lloyd heading into the turn, and the pair proceeded to ding dong the next 660 yards. Just when it appeared Calvello would edge clear, Lloydobler dug in and came again, only to fall a head or so short. It was still a deliriously fun afternoon for the backers of the Lime and Royal, as being part of the card on a day like the Wood Memorial, was yet another new experience. Thanks to all who have sent warm and supportive messages about the handsome chestnut who continues to improve.
In between the AQU 2nd and SA 11th, we were treated to three premium performances in the Derby preps that ranged from dazzling by Eskendereya in the Wood, to efficient by American Lion at Cicero and explosive by Sidney’s Candy in the Santa Anita Derby. The Pletcher-Zayat Giant’s Causeway colt will head to Louisville as the obvious horse to beat, and figures a 5-2 type Derby favorite in the mold of Big Brown two years ago. Meanwhile, Lookin at Lucky’s misadventures at Arcadia Saturday did more to injure Garrett Gomez’ reputation as a big race jock than the 2009 Juvenile Champion’s reputation as a big race horse. He still moves on to the First Saturday as he West Coast contingent’s leader, though John Sadler’s Craig Family charge narrowed the gap considerably with his heroics.
This weekend’s Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby are needed to determine the nearly final financial pecking order for the May 1 rose run. Odysseus (#22), Pleasant Prince (#26) and Paddy O’Prado (#33) will be vying for necessary added earnings at Keeneland Saturday, while Interactif (#15), Aikenite (#19) and Make Music for Me (#20) are eager to pad their bankrolls and protect their Derby inclusion. At Hot Springs, Noble’s Promise and Dublin will have their final tune ups for the Downs, while Uh Oh Bango (#21), Super Saver (#25), Northern Giant (#32) and desperate Pulsion (#36) seek to leapfrog into the 20 horse Derby field.
Jackson Bend (#17) and Backtalk (#18) are precariously positioned at the bottom of the earnings list going into the weekend, and are liable to be pushed to #21 or higher by the feature results Saturday. While he will likely still get in through atrition, getting excluded from the Derby would be in the best long term interest of Jackson Bend’s increasingly notable career. This is a colt who is outrunning his pedigree in terms of class, and can be pointed for achievements like the Gr. I King’s Bishop or any number of Gr. II and III regional Derbys all summer. Unfortunately, Bob Lapenta seems intent on pressing forward to Kentucky with him when he has in Ice Box a runner perfectly positioned for success in Louisville given his style and the pace scenario.
Santa Anita produced another sizeable carryover Sunday, and Jon White and I went through the sequence for you on ATR last evening. Our approaches are below…
SANTA ANITA
POST-SCRATCHES
3rd: Cal-MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Warren’s Kong 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Redemption Day 10-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Centrifuge 4-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Cee’s Closing Time 12-1 3rd
4th: CLM, F&M-4+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #4 First Queen 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Spell Caster 9-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Malibu Artiste 3-1 WON
Super Add: #7 Recess 5-2 5th
5th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #5 Dontmesroundwitjim 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Teafatiller 4-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Absolutelypositivly 3-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Kissed 10-1 4th
6th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #3 Our Partner 2-1 WON
Next Best: #6 Fenice 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 One Shot 7-2 5th
7th: Cal-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)
Most Likely: #4 Unusually Sound 9-5 WON
Best Value: #2 Warrens Attack Cat 6-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Pinstripe Kid 7-2 4th
8th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 6.5f (Super, Super High 5)
Most Likely: #8 Skyangle 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Melbisha 9-5 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Royally Large 5-2 4th
Best Value: #2 Comander’s Charm 50-1
High 5 Play: #6 I Owe Ume 15-1
<$200 P6 Play:
3: 1-2-6-8
4: 4-8
5: 5-8
6: 3-6-7
7: 4
8: 1-8
4x2x2x3x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
$2 Pick 6 (1,4/3,5,6/8/2,3/4/1) 5 of 6 Paid $25.80 X 2 = $51.60
<$75 P4 Play:
5: 5-8
6: 3-6-7
7: 1-2-4
8: 1-2-7-8
2x3x3x4 = $72
$1 P4 (8/2,3/4/1) Pays $110.40
Good luck!
Steve
JON WHITE’S SA C/O P6 PLAY
3: 1
4: 6-7-8
5: 5-6
6: 3-6-7
7: 1-2-4-5-6
8: 1-8
1x3x2x3x5x2 = 180 x $2 = $360
$2 Pick 6 (1,4/3,5,6/8/2,3/4/1) 5 of 6 Paid $25.80 X 2 = $51.60