Failed to respect tenacity of Dr. W in Wednesday’s excellent state bred stake feature and paid the price on the P4 when Parra-Asmussen tigercat came back on Mr. Fantasy to win. Took some solace and profit on crazy 7-1 overlay on nightcap winner Gata Parra. Hope you did OK. Keeneland P6 carry reached $100k, but it seems foolhardy to chase it. Gave a glance at today’s Big A quad though…

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: NYB-MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Smooth Kahlua 8-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #5 Out Bid 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 My Man Jake 5-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Rubenstein 3-1 2nd

7th: OC/N2X, 4+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #5 Stevil 7-2 4th
Best Value: #4 Silent Valor 8-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Thou Swell 7-5 3rd

8th: S.ALW, 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Four Shore 5-1 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #1 Calvello 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Tar Beach 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Lofty Banner 10-1 7th

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #5 Mon of Thunder 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Live On the Edge 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Budget 8-1 WON ($14.00)
Super Add: #8 First of Ten 2-1 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-5
7: 2-4-5
8: 1-3-4
9: 3-5-7-8

Race week commences as Keeneland winds down to its’ last three days with a $50k+ carryover on a card that looks ridiculously confusing. Aqueduct P4 feels more approachable and practical, and includes a terrific state bred overnight stake. Hollywood starts its’ meet today, and I’ll certainly be capping some Inglewood cards as the spring unfolds as I’ve enjoyed the action there and had some success the last couple of years. Derby-Oaks lead-up coverage continues on ‘ATR’ this afternoon with more analysis of the morning efforts from DRF’s Mike Welsch, as well as Steve Davidowitz, Seth Merrow, Gary West, your calls and more…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Schosberg entry 2-1 WON/4th
Best Value: #4 Gotta Go Round 5-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Mineswept 3-1 2nd

7th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Brazen Cat 5-2 WON
Next Best: #1 Backcountry Boy 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Cash is Cohen 8-1 6th

8th: Billy Redcoat-NYB, 4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Absolutely fun betting race, especially if you think Mr. Fantasy is vulnerable..

Most Likely: #6 Mr. Fantasy 8-5 2nd
Next Best: #4 Groomed for Victory 9-2 6th
Best Value: #10 Good Card 15-1 7th
Super Add: #3 Mor Chances 6-1 5th

9th: NYB-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (Super)

Most Likely: #3 Divine Majesty 6-5 6th
Next Best: #6 Gata Perra 4-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Karakorum Jete 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Dugout Deputy 8-1 3rd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-2-4
7: 1-2
8: 4-6-10
9: 3-6-7-8

3x2x3x4 = $72

It was a marginally eventful training session at the Downs Tuesday on a cooler, breezier morning, and those in attendance at the clocker’s stand high above the Downs were in agreement that the Derby or Oaks winners didn’t drill today. Ken McPeek’s NOBLE PROMISE and BEAUTICIAN worked in company, and while the Derby possible looked OK pulling away from the filly in the last 300 yards, his Oaks counterpart looked, in a word, ragged. Noble’s stopped the clock in :59.4 and Beautician turned in a 1:02.0…

AWESOME ACT had a solid if unspectacular spin, again moving behind his workmate (Peace Town) one time around the oval before breaking off into their drill. The Gotham winner tracked Peace Town in :12.3, :25.0 and :36.4 before overhauling him after half mile in :48.3 and 5f in 1:00.2. He galloped out in 1:12.3 (6f) and 1:26.4 (7f) with good enough energy, but the move wasn’t exactly a heat-turner…

Equally ordinary was the effort of LINE OF DAVID, as the John Sadler trainee went :12.0, :24.1, :36.3, :49.1 and 1:02.0 before slowing markedly to go out in 1:16.0. To his credit, the Arkansas Derby winner wasn’t asked, looked smooth, and did race just 10 days ago…

Though the winner of the Oaklawn meet-ender didn’t particularly enthrall, the runner-up out of the Hot Springs classic did. Todd Pletcher’s SUPER SAVER galloped energetically, and though I missed it Monday, Churchill balcony hangers say the Todd Pletcher-trained WinStar homebred was equally eager yesterday and has been on his toes from the moment he arrived in Louisville. The Maria’s Mon bay broke his maiden 9/11/09 going Belmont’s one turn mile on sealed slop, and wired 8 foes in the G2 Kentucky Jockey Club under Calvin Borel in his final juvenile start. He is the son of the A.P. Indy daughter Supercharger, herself a Phipps family product that is a full sister of multiple GSW Daydreaming and G2 Jerome winner Girolamo…

Unless BACKTALK makes the First Saturday starting gate, Super Saver would be the lone Derby runner with a win at Churchill Downs. MISSION IMPAZIBLE was 3rd in the 5f Kentucky Juvenile (G3) last April, while DUBLIN (2), STATELY VICTOR and ENDORSEMENT were off the board in tries at 4th and Central. Tom Amoss’ Backtalk broke his maiden at the Downs in June ’09, and came back three weeks later to annex the G3 Bashford Manor here…

If you’re curious now about Oaks runners and their slates at CD, SASSY IMAGE, who works Wednesday, stands out with a 4/3-0-1 for Dale Romans on her home track with maiden, Pocahontas (G3) and Golden Rod (G2) as the W’s. BEAUTICIAN broke her maiden here as well, as did DWL’s TIDAL POOL…

Bob Baffert’s Derby runners LOOKIN AT LUCKY and CONVEYANCE work Wednesday, and JACKSON BEND, still sitting at #21, may as well for Nick Zito…

With Ramon Dominguez signing on to ride RULE, most Derby mounts are assigned…

NOBLE’S PROMISE and INTERACTIF, both uncertain to start in the Derby, have no riders associated with them, and Sadler has yet to officially name Jon Court for LINE OF DAVID.

Finally, Edgar Prado has ‘lost’ the mount on Rick Dutrow trainee HOMEBOY KRIS, as fallout from the problematic Comely ride on She’ll Be Doggone that upset Anthony Dutrow. Dutrow has lined up Joel Rosario.

Here are the rest of the prospective Derby runners and their riders:

1 Lookin At Lucky – Garrett Gomez
2 Noble’s Promise – Race status TBD
3 Rule – Ramon Dominguez
4 Sidney’s Candy – Joe Talamo
5 Eskendereya – John Velazquez
6 Line of David – TBA, presumed to be Jon Court
7 Mission Impazible – Rajiv Maragh
8 Ice Box – Jose Lezcano
9 Stately Victor – Alan Garcia
10 Endorsement – Robby Albarado

11 Conveyance – Martin Garcia
12 American Lion – David Flores
13 Dublin – Terry Thompson
14 Super Saver – Calvin Borel
15 Discreetly Mine – Javier Castellano
16 Dean’s Kitten – Cornelio Velasquez
17 Interactif – Race status TBD (Rafael Bejarano?)
18 Awesome Act – Julian Leparoux
19 Paddy O’Prado – Kent Desormeaux
20 Homeboykris – Joel Rosario
———————————————————
21 Jackson Bend – Mike Smith
22 Backtalk – Miguel Mena
MORE LATER AND DAY 2 OF ‘ATR’ LIVE FROM CHURCHILL AT 4PM…

First morning at Churchill and a beautiful morning at that. The new Churchill policy allowing Derby/Oaks horses the run of the oval after the harrow break is a hit, though you need to have your eyes moving in all directions to keep track of all of the yellow and pink saddle towels…

The work of the day came earlier in the morning though, as RACHEL ALEXANDRA turned in her third a.m. since arriving back to Louisville from New Orleans, and produced a scintillating effort that DRF’s Mike Welsch said was an a par with her 2009 pre-Oaks drills. Steve Asmussen was all smiles after the work as well, and speculation is increasing that she will return a week from Friday in the La Troienne…

As for Derby/Oaks players, DUBLIN worked a professional-looking and fast :59.1 (galloping out in 1:13.1), but pulled up very quickly afterwards seemingly tired from the dash… No other works were scheduled, but PADDY O’PRADO made a nice impression jogging under a stranglehold and looking like he wanted to do more. The Romans’ trainee pawed at the ground eagerly…

Speaking of Romans, his Oaks hopeful SASSY IMAGE looked tremendous this morning and has an anticipated work Wednesday. Romans (Paddy O’Prado, Sassy Image) joins Todd Pletcher (Sundry Derby entrants/Devil May Care, Ailalea possible), John Sadler (Sidney’s Candy, Line of David/Crisp), Rick Dutrow (Homeboy Kris/Amen Hallelujah), Ken McPeek (See below) and Wayne Lukas (Dublin/Tidal Pool) trying to pull off the Oaks-Derby Double…

AWESOME ACT, who is scheduled to drill tomorrow, has a Euro style morning routine that finds him jogging directly behind a barnmate. The Noseda team has apparently been doing it every morning since their arrival from New York… ICE BOX was out hobby-horsing a couple days after his Friday :48.2 half and looks terrific… McPeek’s possible Derby starter NOBLE’S PROMISE and likely Oaks starter BEAUTICIAN both were out jogging a day in advance of what will be their respective ‘important’ KD/KO efforts tomorrow…

John Sadler’s Arky hero LINE OF DAVID works tomorrow, but SIDNEY’S CANDY reportedly had tongues wagging Saturday with his first Churchill move, a :59.4 effort with a partner. The Santa Anita Derby winner tripped splits of :12.3, :24.4; :36.1 and :48.0, galloping out 6f in 1:12.80 and 7f in 1:27.40…

MORE LATER AND OF COURSE “ATR” COVERAGE LIVE FROM CHURCHILL DOWNS KICKS OFF AT 4PM…

Annual sojourn to Louisville commences later this morning, and as always, the anticipation fuels excitement at the prospect of another Derby adventure. What makes the experience special, as was broached a couple of times on the air this week, is that each individual Derby, and run-up to it, has simultaneous unique and familiar aspects that guarantee a memorable visit. ATR coverage begins Monday from The Downs, and I look forward to trying to bring you the best of Derby 136 which marks the 10th year in a row that I’ve attended ‘first Saturday’.

Friday at Aqueduct provided a brush with a sextet carryover hit, however modest ($1,100), as the $64 play went 5/6 for a $21 conso. Sixth race ‘Next Best’ third choice Zio Tony was the difference in the sequence, as he sat a sweet trip while favored Avenging Spirit was dueling up front in 22.4 and 45.4. The Hushion trainee, making his second career start, cruised by Avenging Spirit, now 3 for 3 as a runner up, and stopped the clock in 1:23.1 for an 89 Beyer. Leaving Zio Tony off the P4 play cost the $242.25 quad which ended with Leatherhead scoring at $21. Hope you did OK! Aqueduct, Keeneland and Charles Town P4’s the focus today as the action takes you from 3pm through until 10:30p tonight!

AQUEDUCT

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: NYB-CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Cats Kitty 9-5
Best Value: #9 Blow Up 8-1
Next Best: #6 Odessa’s Hope 5-1
Super Add: #2 Flo’s Honor 12-1

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 SPANISH LUCK 3-1
Best Value: #1e Odintz entry 6-1
Next Best: #2 Risky Rachel 5-2
Super Add: #7 Positive Pitch 9-2

9th: 56th Distaff H. (G2), F&M-3+, 7f (DD)

Note that #1 Strut the Canary and #4 Hour Glass are both cross-entered in the Sugar Maple at CT tonight..

Best Value: #5 Matchless Orinda 3-1
Next Best: #4 Hour Glass 5-2
Multis Use: #3 Tar Heel Mom 2-1

10th: CLM, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #10 Sydney Road 7-2
Best Value: #2 Quip 8-1
Next Best: #9 Ballast 5-2
Super Add: #7 Check It Twice 5-1

OFF THE TURF: 7-6-2-5

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-6-9
8: 4
9: ALL
10: 2-7-9-10 (Off Turf 2-5-6-7)

3x1x6x4 = $72

KEENELAND

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: OC/N3X, 4+, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Forest Attack 5-2
Next Best: #1 Deal Breaker 2-1
Best Value: #7 Premium Gold 6-1

8th: 14th Giant’s Causeway, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 West Ocean 5-2
Best Value: #3 Libor Lady 9-2
Next Best: #8 Canadian Ballet 3-1
Super Add: #6 Silver Time 12-1

9th: 29th Lexington (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Would of course be thrilled for the Fantasy Lane group as they face the burden of running Uptowncharleybrown in the shadow of the passing of trainer Alan Seewald, just 62, Monday. However, transition from organic main track to synthetic has proved difficult for most, and while Uptown looks appealing on form, feel obliged to look towards those proven on artificial strips.. Very difficult group, and I want no part of anything under $10..

Best Value: #12 Chief Council (15-1): Reunites with Kent D; Broke MDN here..
Next Best: #3 Distorted Dave (10-1): Hard to go against Sadler right now..
Exotics Use: #4 Bushwacked (12-1): Put it together last and still has upside..
Super Add: #1 Krypton (6-1): Tactical looking type showed speed last; Must use..

10th:

Nice of the ‘Horseplayer’s Favorite Track’ to end an ALW/STK multi-race sequence with an utterly random Dime Claimer..

Most Likely: #8 Another Dancer 5-2
Next Best: #6 Westmoreland 4-1
Best Value: #7 Curly 15-1
Exotics Use: #3 Condition Red 4-1
High 5 Play: #9 Runaway Banjo 5-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-2
8: 1-3-6-7-8
9: 1-2-3-4-12
10: 6-7-8

2x5x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

CHARLES TOWN

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: Webb Snyder, 3+, 4.5f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Joey P. 5-2
Next Best: #3 Love’s Strong Hart 3-1
Best Value: #8 Truth or Bust 6-1
Super Add: #5 Ju Jitsu Jax 7-2

8th: Blue and Gold, 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Comedaro 9-2
Best Value: #6 Baiano 12-1
Next Best: #5 Plantation 2-1
Super Add: #1 Confidence Crisis 8-1

9th: Sugar Maple, F&M-4+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Hour Glass 4-1
Best Value: #1 Jessica Is Back 9-2
Next Best: #4 Sweet Goodbye 2-1
Super Add: #7 Pinkarella 5-1

10th: Charles Town Classic, 4+, 9f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Gone Astray 3-1
Best Value: #6 Understatement 5-1
Next Best: #9 Researcher 9-2
Super Add: #3 Encaustic 8-1

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-3
8: 2-5-6
9: 1-2-4
10: 2-3-6-9

2x3x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve