Tough start to the Oaks-Derby Weekend Friday as largely poor results were punctuated by excruciating photo loss of Evening Jewel to Blind Luck. As suggested, the preliminary action Friday looks like it will turn out to be the more pleasant of the two days despite the slight improvement in the Saturday forecast. Rain began overnight and is driving down at this hour, with at least an 1″ expected in the morning before a window of opportunity opens for the afternoon. Expected turf no better than yielding and a main track no better than good.

On the ovals yesterday, the second race back for Rachel Alexandra ended similarly to her New Orleans effort, a slightly better than it looked loss to a good but rather ordinary stakes runner in Bill Mott’s Unrivaled Belle. The 2009 Horse of the Year was again not allowed to run the free rein race that made her so dominant and spectacular last year as Calvin Borel chose to rate her off the common Be Fair.

Rachel and the Vegso-Seidler homebred both received solid 103 Beyers for the race, a fig that was better than the boys in the Alysheba 90 minutes later (Arson Squad 101). The fact that Jess Jackson’s Medaglia d’Oro filly had every opportunity to fend off the winner and seemed to produce just modest resistance is the fact that is most disheartening in the attempt to get her back to last year’s level of excellence. Whether Rachel Alexandra’s competitive fire has simply ebbed after the extended period of inactivity or Steve Asmussen’s training and racing strategy for her is simply lacking, the filly is just not as good right now as she was in 2009.

The reaction by Jackson to the loss was very encouraging however, as he told the media he is not retiring the champion filly based on her two races so fat this year. I’m not sure what Asmussen will do differently next, but I wish he would allow Borel to let the filly loose to run the way she prefers. She may not be the same runer she was in 2009, the attempts to rate her through the first half of her runs isn’t working.

The early win wagering for Derby are bizarre, and I cannot fathom that they will be as strangely distributed at post time as they were after the first $600k was recorded.

DERBY ODDS THROUGH FRIDAY

1 Lookin At Lucky 9
2 Ice Box 11
3 Noble’s Promise 21
4 Super Saver 7
5 Line of David 14
6 Stately Victor 16
7 American Lion 24
8 Dean’s Kitten 18
9 Make Music for Me 25
10 Paddy O’Prado 11
11 Devil May Care 10
12 Conveyance 25
13 Jackson Bend 21
14 Mission Impazible 24
15 Discreetly Mine 40
16 Awesome Act 14
17 Dublin 21
18 Backtalk 21
19 Homeboykris 17
20 Sidney’s Candy 11

Was a record breaking day at the Downs Friday with 115k in the big plant, which should offset slightly what may turn out to be a very difficult day there Saturday thanks to the weather. Belmont opener was a hit as well with 6,000+ at Elmont and a big handle. $150k+ carryover at Churchill, the near $500k mandatory payout at Beulah and $25k carry at Belmont today! Hope you did OK Friday and that today works out all right. Enjoy Derby Day! Full recap of the weekend Monday on ATR..

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

1st: OC/N2X, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Stay Put 2-1 WON
Best Value: #1 Rock Hard 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Broken Tango 4-1 5th
Super Add: #5 SCR

2nd: MSW, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Bold Victory 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 My Piano Man 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Spicer 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 L. C. Daytona 12-1 6th

3rd: MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

SELECTED WITH EXPECTATION OF BEING OFF THE TURF…

Best Value: #11 Sheryl’s Melody 10-1 WON
Next Best: #14 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Heart Union 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 SCR

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 SCR
Next Best: #9 Don’t Put It Back 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #2 New Pais 5-1 8th
Super Add: #5 Good Lord 5-1 3rd

5th: OC/N3X, 3+, 8.5f-T

SELECTED WITH EXPECTATION OF BEING OFF THE TURF WHICH WILL PRODUCE WHOLESALE SCRATCHES…

Most Likely: #12 Anarko 6th
Next Best: #1 Southern Exchange 5th
Exotics Use: #5 On My Dime 7th

<$50 P4 Play:

2: 2-4-6-7
3: 5/SCR-7-11–14/SCR
4: 1/SCR-9
5: 1-5-12

4x2x1x3 = 24 x .50 = $12

6th: 55th Eight Belles (G3), 3yo-F, 7.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Hot Dixie Chick 1-1 3rd
Best Value: #1 Buckleupbuttercup 8-1 WON
Exotics Use: #4 Decelerator 7-2 6th
Super Add: #5 Sister Resistor 12-1 5th

7th: 25th CD Turf Mile (G2), 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Fantasia 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Tizaqueena 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Diamondrella 8-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Miss Keller 10-1 3rd

<$50 P4 Play:

4: 1-9
5: 1-5-12
6: 1-2-4-5
7: 1-3-5-7

2x3x4x4 = 96 x .50 = $48

8th: 24th Humana Distaff (G1), F&M-4+, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Warbling 8-1 5th
Best Value: #6 Pretty Prolific 20-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision 2-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Cassidy’s Pride 12-1 7th

9th: 76th Churchill Downs (G2), 4+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Warrior’s Reward 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Wall Street Wonder 12-1 11th
Next Best: #12 Musket Man 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Country Day 15-1 9th

10th: 24th Woodford Reserve (G1), 3+, 9f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Blues Street 6-1 5th
Next Best: #8 Loup Breton 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Court Vision 9-5 2nd
Super Add: #1 Wise River 15-1 8th

11th: 136th Kentucky Derby (G1), 3yo, 10f (P3, DD, Super, Super High 5)

As crazy a Derby situation as anyone in Louisville can recall. I think the Dale Romans colt is by far the best horse to key off of, but cannot blame anyone for any approach they take to race that became chaotic when Eskendereya vacated the favorite’s mantle… Good luck and enjoy the game’s most wonderful event..

Most Likely: #10 PADDY O’PRADO (20-1): Romans’ grey has done everything right, is dead fit for 10 panels and relishes it wet.. 3rd
Next Best: #20 Sidney’s Candy (5-1): Outpost may not spell doom for speedy Candy Ride who can sit the Evening Jewel Oaks trip.. 17th
Exotics Use: #2 Ice Box (10-1): Zito’s FL Derby winner was endlessly energetic the last 2 weeks and should get meltdown scenario.. 2nd
Super Add: #11 Devil May Care (10-1): Filly moves into picture on basis of last Saturday’s stunning slop workout.. 10th
High 5 Play: #6 Stately Victor (30-1): Visual impression of Blue Grass win lingers; Handsome colt will like mud, trip and pace set-up.. 8th

<$200 P6 Play:

Given weather, there are far too many unknowns going into this card too invest wildly in this P6..

6: 2
7: 3-5
8: 2-3-6
9: 3-7
10: 3-7-8
11: 10

1x2x3x2x3x1 = 36 x $2 = $72

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 2-3-6-7-9
9: 3-7
10: 3-7-8
11: 2-6-10-11-20

5x2x3x5 = 150 x .50 = $75

12th: ALW/N2X, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #9 Thunder Jack 8-1 9th
#11 E Z’s Gentleman 7-2 WON
Exotics Use: #8 Handleman 9-2 2nd
Super Add: #10 SCR

13th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Moe Man 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Irish Emperor 15-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Galientos 5-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Imperial Pride 9-2 5th

<$75 P4 Play:

10: 3-7-8
11: 2-6-10-11-20
12: 2-5-8-9-10-11
13: 3

3x5x6x1 = 90 x .50 = $45

Frightening forecast for severe weather starting late this afternoon and through Derby Day means this card may be the one to enjoy in its’ entirety with tomorrow an unknown. Between Oaks, Rachel Alexandra’s second ’10 start and three more excellent stakes, there is plenty to like.

The two weeks of ‘At the Races’ Oaks-Derby coverage wraps this afternoon, and as usual, it’s been a deliciously fun fortnight. Hope you have enjoyed the lineups and conversations and insights, and it helps you get started on a successful Triple Crown season. Thanks to the staff at Churchill for an especially warm welcome this year…

Full card look for Churchill below as well as the opening day P4 at Belmont Park. Remember that Andy Serling returns tonight on the NYRA website chat, and will certainly have Derby card thoughts as well opinions on Belmont’s first Saturday. Enjoy Oaks-Derby/Belmont Opening Weekend!

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Tough spot for a layoff returnee (#2 Ravi’s Song; 2-1) to go as favorite; Will play against and look for some of the formful prices here instead..

Best Value: #7 Yonakee 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Diamond Song 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Fortune Play 8-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 Dixie Pixie 10-1 6th

2nd: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Rigamaro 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 English Girl 12-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Azurite 7-2 WON
Super Add: #4 Karen Ann 12-1 10th

3rd: MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Hybrid 9-2 6th
Best Value: #12 Bascom Hall 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 Belgrave Square 5-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Gigantos 6-1 7th

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Go for Jan 12-1 5th
Next Best: #11 Fuzzy Britches 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Glowing Report 15-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Souma 3-1 9th

5th: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Forest Trail 4-1 3rd-DH
Next Best: #11 Danzon 7-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Coulee 15-1 2nd
Super Add: #10 Deputy Darling 15-1 9th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 1-3-7
3: 5-10-12
4: 3-4-5-8-11
5: 1-4-11

3x3x5x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50

6th: 25th La Troienne (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 RACHEL ALEXANDRA 3-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Morena 20-1 3rd
Next Best #3 Zardana 3-1 5th

7th: 22nd KY Juvenile, 2yo, 5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Nina Fever 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #9 Twelve Pack Shelly 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Lou Brissie 5-1 WON

<$50 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-4-5-8-11
5: 1-2-3-4-10-11
6: 4
7: 7-9

6x6x1x2 = 72 x .50 = $36

8th: 16th Churchill Downs Turf Sprint (G3), 3+, 5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Chamberlain Bridge 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #6 Silver Timber 2-1 WON
Exotics Use: #7 Starfish Bay 7-2 6th
Super Add: #10 Central City 12-1 3rd

9th: 7th Alysheba (G3), 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 COOL COAL MAN 4-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Chocolate Candy 5-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Macho Again 5-1 7th
Super Add: #7 Arson Squad 3-1 WON

10th: 19th American Turf (G2), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Workin for Hops 12-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Setsuko 4-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Saint Eligius 12-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Gleam of Hope 15-1 6th

11th: 136th Kentucky Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f (Oaks-Woodford-Derby P3, Oaks-Derby Double, DD, Super)

Only way to approach is to stand against Blind Luck within the race and include her in multis; Big performance first dirt (104 Beyer Fantasy effort) can produce adverse reaction, and though Hollendorfer filly gets desired pace to attack, think she comes back to the pack today; Also standing against Lukas’ Tidal Pool who has looked off the past two weeks leading up to this sophomore distaffing standard..

Most Likely: #11 Evening Jewel (10-1): Cassidy miss will stalk and pounce first dirt; Couldn’t be better fit for this.. 2nd
Best Value: #2 Jody Slew (30-1): Woman among girls physically and will grind out trip; Must for exotics plays.. 13th
Exotics Use: #1 It’s Tea Time (15-1): Arnold’s Ashland runner-up continues to develop; Saves all the ground.. 9th
Super Adds: #7 Crisp (8-1): Sadler filly has done everything right leading up to weekend; Should advance first dirt.. 7th #12 Ailalea (15-1): Figures to be overlooked and would love it if rains came early.. 5th

<$50 P4 Play:

8: 3-6-7
9: 4
10: 1-6-7-8-9-11
11: 1-2-5-7-11

3x1x6x5 = 90 x .50 = $45

12th: MSW, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #8 Ready to Sing 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 Bialy 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Go Pro 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #3 Wyn Jym 15-1 9th
High 5 Play: #2 Awesome Temper 8-1 8th

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: CLM, 4+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Fortyninegeorgest. 3-1 WON
Best Value: #10 Yukon Gold Rush 10-1 8th
Next Best: #6 Untopable 7-2 4th
Super Add: #2 Oedipus O’Neal 15-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Count Catamount 5-2 WON
Best Value: #2 Fit 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Jess Not Jesse 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #11 Little Alex 8-1 6th

8th: 82nd Westchester (G3), 3+, 1m (DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ironman Jon 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Bribon 9-5 5th
Exotics Use: #8 Convocation 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #7 Le Grand Cru 15-1 WON

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #8 Ali’s Joy 6-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Gilt Edged 4-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Jacob’s Dream 4-1 4th
Super Add: #9 Unforgettable P J 20-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 7-10
7: 1-2-4
8: 4-6
9: 1-3-4-7-8-9

2x3x2x6 = $72

AQUEDUCT — CLOSING DAY

POST-SCRATCHES

$56K P6 CARRYOVER — MANDATORY PAYOUT

4th: NYB -MSW, 3+, 8.5f-OFF THE TURF (P6, P3, DD, Super)

No surprises here, but Adam Rides Again, ‘first turf’ Pletcher gelding by Cozzene, looks to offer a nice alternative to the ML choices..

Most Likely: #4 Adam Rides Again 7-2
Next Best: #5 Come Undone 2-1
Best Value: #10 Raffinator 6-1

5th: NYB-CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f (G/S, P3, DD)

Ugly set with enough speed in attendance to makes race trickier than it should be. Bailsby’s involvement, third off a 1.5 year layoff with 3 drills added since last, means Extinguish will not be getting away easily. If Always On the Move is a shadow of his former self, he should handle these given that set up, but that hardly feels like a certainty..

Most Likely: #3 Always On the Move 7-5
Best Value: #6 Felinefelon 7-2
Next Best: #2 Extinguish 8-5

6th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD, Super)

OFF THE TURF: 3-4-7-8

Most Likely: #
Next Best: #
Best Value: #
Super Add: #

7th: NYB-CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Book 5-1
Most Likely: #5 We’re Going Mobile 3-1
Next Best: #4 Vinnie Van Go 5-2
Super Add: #1 Potomac Moon 8-1

8th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (DD)

This is an outstanding race with an impossibly well-matched group..

Most Likely: #1a (POE) Emma’s Posse 6-1
Best Value: #4 Monte Carlo 9-2
Next Best: #3 Star of New York 5-2
Exotics Use: #7 All Rights Reserved 6-1

9th: CLM, F&M-4+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (Super)

OFF THE TURF: 2-3-6-8

Most Likely: #
Next Best: #
Best Value: #
Super Add: #

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 4-5-10
5: 3
6: 3-4
7: 2-5
8: 1-4
9: 2-3

3x1x2x2x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 2-7-8
7: 2-4-5
8: 1-3-4-7
9: 2-3

3x3x4x2 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #10 Primed 5-2
Best Value: #8 There Is No Limit 4-1
Next Best: #5 Life Well Lived 7-2
Super Add: #3 Honey Bunch 8-1

7th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Best Mon 5-1
Most Likely: #3 Gotmymojoworkin 5-2
Next Best: #7 Dave’s Pacemaker 4-1

8th: 70th Inglewood (G3), 3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Great Siege 6-1
Next Best: #7 Acclamation 6-1
Exotics Use: #11 Gallant Son 15-1
Super Add: #8 Rummysecret War 30-1

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 7f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Majestic Run 7-2
Best Value: #1 Waafi 6-1
Next Best: #6 Stray Cat 5-1
Exotics Use: #2 Smokenomore 6-1
High 5 Play: #12 Gold Stock 15-1

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 5-8-10
7: 2-3
8: 5-7-8-9-11
9: 1-11

3x2x5x2 = $60

Good luck!
Steve

Another in/out afternoon/evening with some good opinions and returns at AQU and HOL, but no quads. Hope you did OK. With Derby run-up taking precedence, had little opportunity to delve in to much besides the final AQU Saturday guaranteed P4…

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)

Best Value: #8 Admiralty 12-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Air Lord 9-5 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Kiln Creek 8-1 WON

8th: CLM/N1Y, 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Aly’s Wheat 4-1 5th
Best Value: #7 He Ain’t Easy 10-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Lemon Shore 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 Ungi Blanc 30-1 3rd

9th: 131st Withers (G3), 3yo, 1m (DD)

Most Likely: #2 D’ Funnybone 1-2 4th
Next Best: #6 Ibboyee 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Casteneda 10-1 5th

10th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (Super)

Most Likely: #7 Silenced 5-2 WON
Best Value: #6 Good Karma 12-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Fortissi More 5-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Woodrunner 9-5 6th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 6-7-8
8: 4-7-8-9
9: 2-6
10: 5-6-7

Utterly implausible 7th race winner upended the P4 Thursday and interrupted an otherwise good day. Hope you did well! Highlight of the Big A action came earlier in the day in the form of a very impressive ALW win from Rule by Night in the third.

‘At the Races’ Friday Weekend Preview Show from Churchill this afternoon, and another playable quad today at Aqueduct early. Keeneland ends what can only be described as disappointing meet with the 5/3 Elkhorn, and Hollywood offers the first Friday night slate later.

AQUEDUCT

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: NYB-CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Lady Valiant 5-1 2nd
Most Likely: #3 Green Arrows 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Our Special Effort 5-2 WON
Super Add: #1 Valuable Lady 3-1 5th

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 Kid Tornado 5-1 5th
Next Best: #6 Smart Enuf 5-2 WON

8th: OC/N3X, 4+, 7f (DD)

Most Likely: #2e Repole entry 3-1 3rd/6th
Next Best: #1 Tizway 5-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Smiley Pete 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Half Metal Jacket 6-1 2nd

9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (Super)

Best Value: #10 Giuseppina 4-1 3rd
Most Likely: #5 Impolite Lady 2-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Angel Wave 7-2 2nd
Super Add: #8 No Imagination 10-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 3-6-7
7: 2-6
8: 1-2-3
9: 5-8-9-10

3x2x3x4 = $72

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Hockley 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Thomas Baines 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Summer Movie 15-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Theatrical Pro 4-1 8th

6th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Krakow Queen 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Pretty Kinzie 7-2 WON
Best Value: #8 Frequent Fame 10-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Right to Work 4-1 10th

7th: Cal-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Alpine Yodel 4-1 7th
Next Best: #1 Boehle 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Samantha’s Rule 3-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Ruination 2-1 WON

8th: CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

Best Value: #9 One Vote 4-1 WON
Most Likely: #4 Taxi Fleet 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #10 Acquire the Fire 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Stormy Game 20-1 6th
High 5 Play: #6 SCR

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-5
6: 2-6-8
7: 1-2-7
8: 4-5-9-10

2x3x3x4 = $72