MONMOUTH PARKPRE-SCRATCHES

6th 3:20pm): MDN CLM, 3+, 9f-T (.50 P5, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Tigresco 3-1 WON
Best Value: #2 Bold Style 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Balthus 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Bernie’s Surprise 8-1 4th

7th: CLM, 3+, 1m-70y (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1e Walder entry 2-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Wild Sage 15-1 5th
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #10 Offlee Cool 8-1 8th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Hooked On Hope 5-2 5th
Next Best: #3 Ms. Short Pockets 3-1 WON
Best Value: #7 Obsequious 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Sweet Tune 5-1 2nd

9th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Idealhouse 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Ragabash 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Myaaka City 3-1 WON
Super Add: #6 Won Token 5-1 6th

10th: OC/N3X, 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Ever a Friend 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Giant Deputy 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Gimme Credit 4-1 WON
Super Add: #1 Carson Hall 9-2 4th

<$75 .50 P5 Play:

6: 2-3-6-9
7: 1-5-8-10
8: 1-3-7
9: 2-3-7
10: 6

4x4x3x3x1 = 144 x .50 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th (8:32pm): MDN CLM, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$114k C/O

Most Likely: #1 SCR
Best Value: #5 Speeding Train 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Racing Office Joe 3-1 WON
Super Add: #10 Trash to Treasure 10-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Peach Bottom 5-2 2nd-DH
Best Value: #1 Redimere 12-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Leisurely Walk 9-2 5th
Super Add: #7 Hickory Dee 7-2 4th

8th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Jedi Code 4-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Don’t Put It Back 8-1 4th
Next Best: #8 Saratoga Sinner 7-2 WON
Super Add: #7 Zion 4-1 2nd

9th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Let’s Dream Again 7-2 WON
Best Value: #3 Miss Rufus 8-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Finish in Style 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #9 My Lady A.P. 10-1 8th

10th: Kelly’s Landing, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Here Comes Ben 2-1 WON
Next Best: #2 Hamazing Destiny 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Caixa Electronica 10-1 3rd
Super Add: #4 Posse Cat 8-1 7th

11th: MSW, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super High 5)

Most Likely: #3 Raven Hawk 5-2 WON
Best Value: #9 SCR
Next Best: #6 SCR
Exotics Use: #5 Megaholtz 4-1 2nd-DQ’d
Super Add: #1 A. P. Eli 5-1 6th

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 1/SCR
7: 1-2-4
8: 4-5
9: 2-3-4-9
10: 2-6-8
11: 3

1x3x2x4x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4-5
9: 2-3-4-9
10: 2-6-8
11: 3–6-9/SCR’D

2x4x3x3 = $72

Hollywood carryover returned an outstanding $212k to three winning tickets Wednesday, and proved again that no matter how short fields are or how straightforward events look, big rewards are possible in the the most challenging multi-race wager. Between the $137k left from Sunday and a stunning $790k+ added Wednesday, the total pot reached a remarkable $930k, yet ‘the sport is dying’… Right. It was a Wednesday… and we bet nearly $800,000 into the pool!

Lucky Mr K, in the 2yo Cal-bred race, turned out to be the only ‘sure thing’ in the sequence, as $17.40 Sky Chant (5th) and $28.60 Terrify (7th) juiced the skien. It was a fun afternoon that started in New York where a crazy parade of favorites produced a P6 payout of $93.00, and my successful $72 P4 play returned a thrilling $35. Hope you did well though, as there is another $50k+ carry at Churchill today with a card that looks challenging and entertaining.

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P6. P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Bold Victory 7-2 6th
Next Best: #2 Storm Falcon 4-1 5th
Best Value: #5 Thomas J 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Westshore 3-1 WON

5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 One That Got Away 5-2 WON
Best Value: #1 Gatorlicious 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Hitch Your Wagon 3-1 5th
Super Add:#7 Alpha Tammy 12-1 2nd

6th: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2b Win the Silver 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #9 D’s Littlebit Wild 8-1 10th
Next Best: #8 Magnificent Mile 7-2 WON
Super Add: #7 Miracle Mouse 10-1 8th

7th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

NOTE 3 SCR’S: 1-3-7

Most Likely: #6 Max Silverhammer 1-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 Crafty Ray 10-1 DNF

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 5f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Creek Girl 4-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Sweet Starlet 6-1 7th
Next Best: #4 Broken Dreams 5-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 Water of Life 10-1 3rd

9th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Helliecat 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Charlie Cool 5-1 WON
Next Best: #3 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Green N Goldie 10-1 8th
High 5 Play: #8 Shofar 10-1 5th

<$100 P6 Play:

4: 1-2
5: 6
6: 2-9
7: 4-6
8: 4-6-10
9: 9-10

2x1x2x2x3x2 = 48 x $2 = $96

<$50 P4 Play:

6: 2-4-6-7-8-9
7: 4-6
8: 4-5-6-10
9: 9-10

6x2x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Absolutely don’t trust 2-1 ML fave #3 Holy Ego 2-1..

Most Likely: LATE SCRATCH #7 All Zipped Up 3-1: Should overwhelm this set..
Best Value: #1 Butterfield Road 6-1: Note major jock switch.. 4th
Next Best: #2 Western Connection 4-1: Why is Morrison using Studart? 2nd
Super Add: #4 Crescent Moon Dr 15-1: Priced right; Explosive pattern.. 5th

7th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Straight Romance 15-1: Wire threat off recent bullet.. 3rd
Most Likely: #7 Five Towns 3-1: 2nd off substancial break.. 5th
Next Best: #5 Sly 2-1: Consistent, but doesn’t win.. WON ($5.00)
Super Add: #4 Dragon Fi 9-2: Reunited; Best on grass a fit.. 4th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Ready to Sing 5-2: Stidham shipper by noted turf sire.. WON ($6.50)
Best Value: #6 Atrea 9-2: ‘Meaux’s lone mount on day.. 4th
Next Best: #5 Lost Without You 4-1: Working well; Pace opportunity.. 6th
Super Add: #8 Citifiesta 6-1: Likes it back on lawn.. 3rd

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #10 Blue Horseshoe 6-1: Loves Anacot Steel & Carlos off breaks.. 5th
Most Likely: #1 Montana Knight 8-5: No better than other ML faves.. WON ($3.40)
Next Best: #2 Something Gold 5-2: Consistently ordinary.. 3rd
Super Add: #3 Political Agenda 4-1: Takes precipitous drop for Shug.. 2nd

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-7/LATE SCR (3-SCR subtitute favorite rule)
7: 2-5-7
8: 4-5-6
9: 1-2-3-10

2x3x3x4 = $72

$1 P4 (3,7,8,9,10,11,12/5/2,4,9,10/1,5,7,9) Paid $35.00

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: Cal-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$137k P6 Carryover

Most Likely: #3 Lucky Mr. K 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #6 Buddha Belly 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 Mr. Gennaro 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Certainly Certain 3-1 4th

4th: ALW/N$Y, 3+, 5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #2 A Lil Dumaani 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Triumphant Flight 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #3 Lt. Hopeful 3-1 WON

5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Westwood Pride 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Glass of Red 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Sky Chant 10-1 WON ($17.40)
Super Add: #9 Warren’s Ruby 15-1 7th

6th: CLM, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Remus 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #4 Mind the Minister 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Full On 6-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Waafi 6-1 WON ($13.60)

7th: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 Via Veneto 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Brookie Girl 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Royal Taat 5-2 6th
Super Add: #6 Apt to Be Amazing 5-1 7th

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

$40k Hi-5 Carryover

Most Likely: #5 Mister Jazz 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #7 Connagher 6-1 WON ($11.20)
Next Best: #15 Olympic Magic 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Justice Reigns 12-1

<$25 to <$100 High 5 Plays:

$24 (A) 5 with 7-15 with 7-15 with 2-8-9-10 with 2-8-9-10 (1x2x1x4x3 = $24)
$48 (B) 5 with 7-15 with 2-8-9-10 with 7-15 with 2-8-9-10 (1x2x4x1x3 = $24)
$72 (C) 7-15 with 5 with 7-15 with 2-8-9-10 with 2-8-9-10 (2x1x1x4x3 = $24)
$96 (D) 7-15 with 5 with 2-8-9-10 with 7-15 with 2-8-9-10 (2x1x4x1x3 = $24)

<$150 or <$50 P6 Plays:

3: 3-6
4: 1-2
5: 5
6: 3-4
7: 8 (4-5)
8: 5-7-15

Full (Using 3 in R7): 2x2x1x2x3x3 = 72 x $2 = $144
Budget (Single in R7): 2x2x1x2x1x3 = 24 x $2 = $48

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-5-7
6: 3-4
7: 4-5-8
8: 2-5-7-15

3x2x3x4 = $72

Good luck!
Steve

JON WHITE’S <$100 P6 PLAY

3: 3
4: 1-4
5: 5-7
6: 3-4
7: 5-8
8: 3-5-15

1x2x2x2x2x3 = 48 x $2 = $96

ATR listeners should have enjoyed a big Saturday between Dale Romans (North Rodeo, $17.20) and Mike Stidham (Secret Kin, $11.40) visits, and Gus Alonso (‘Best Bet’ My Sonny Boy, $25.20) selections suggestions. I was happy to chip in too with the $288 Colonial P4 that featured Romans’ Paddy O’Prado with a facile Turf Cup win setting him up as a heavy favorite for the Virginia Derby next and Secretariat later.

Elsewhere, Afleet Express (Pegasus) and Golden Itiz (Affirmed) established themselves for Jimmy Jerkens and Ron Ellis as sophomore second season stalwarts with their efforts Saturday, and Stidham’s Comedero will set his sights on graded events after nabbing $240k in his easy Red Legend win at Charles Town.

Hope you did well and enjoyed a fun day of racing Saturday. Happy Father’s Day to the dads! Belmont late P4 looks inviting today to wrap the weekend.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

7th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1e Rice entry 8-5 2nd/4th
Best Value: #4 Rumors of Glory 4-1 WON
Next Best: #6 SCR Sub: #7 Heck 5-1 5th

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 6f-T (P3, DD)

Best Value: #1 (POE) Spirit of Rose 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Zip by You 7-2 WON
Exotics Use: #2 Hangingonaprayer 6-1 4th

9th: 31st Mike Lee, NYB-3yo, 7f (DD)

Vintage crop of Empire breds, and Castenada just got hurt or he would have been here as well. And then there was Pat Kelly’s nice runner from yesterday Shrewd One that could have landed here instead of that serious open company ALW yesterday where he ran big behind Aikenite..

Most Likely: #2 Ibboyee 2-1 3RD
Best Value: #5 Raynick’s Jet 5-1 5TH
Next Best: #6 Friend or Foe 4-1 WON

10th: CLM/N3L, 3+, 6f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Inhaler 7-2 DNF
Next Best: #6 Cires 3-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Coronation Day 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #7 Baton Rouge 15-1 8th

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4 (7)
8: 1-2-4
9: 2 (5)
10: 5-6 (7-9)

Wide, standard play: 3x3x2x4 = $72

Press and back-up ticket option ($42 or more):

Press 2x3x1x2 = $12 (As much as you care to..)
R7 backup horse #6: 1x3x1x2 = $6
R9 backup horse #5: 2x3x1x2 = $12
R10 backup horses 7-9: 2x3x1x2 = $12

BELMONT PARK

4th: NY-CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 SCR
Best Value: #9 Mind Boggling 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Le Bonne Vie 5-2 WON ($3.10)
Super Add: #10 Living for This 5-1 3rd

5th: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

$32k P6 C/O starts here..

Most Likely: #3 Mr. Bourbon Street 4-1 7th
Best Value: #9 Well Meant 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 Coach Gravy 3-1 WON ($4.70)
Super Add: #4 SCR

6th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (G/S, P3, DD)

Out of the blue, a simply remarkable assembly of sophomore (except Hoopoe) talent that has mostly been late getting to the races. It is not unreasonable to suppose that by the end of next year, every 3yo in this field today will have become a stakes winner of some kind, and of course Aikenite is already Gr. I placed. Some notes… Cocalero has been transfered from Darley maroon to Godolphin blue; Pat Kelly could have run Shrewd One in tomorrow’s NYB Mike Lee, and I’m not sure why he didn’t; Global Force spiked a slight fever Friday morning and may have to scratch..

Best Value: #7 Cocalero 5-1 5th
Most Likely: #2e Pletcher entry 2-1 WON-Aikenite/3rd-Winaholic ($5.00)
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Khalifa 8-1 4th (3rd for wagering purposes)
Super Add: #6 Shrewd One 5-1 2nd

7th: NY-MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 La Belle Gabrielle 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Eliza Grace 6-1 7th
Next Best: #8 Hed Deputy 3-1 4th
Super Add: #1 SCR

8th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

A simply impossible group to seperate. May decide many a fate in P6 plays..

Most Likely: #9 Bretton Woods 7-2 5th
Best Value: #3 Holy Moly 9-2 10th
Next Best: #8 Katy’s Office Girl 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #4 Maya Charli 6-1 WON ($16.00)

9th: 67th New York (G2), F&M-3+, 10f-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Daveron 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Ave 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Gozzip Girl 4-1 DNF-Lost rider
Super Add: #6 Lady Shakespeare 5-2 WON

10th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (Super)

Most Likely: #6 Sundae’s a Meese 7-2
Best Value: #7 Disarming 6-1
Next Best: #3 Officer Flirt 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Angel Wave 4-1 WON

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 3-9
6: 1-2-7
7: 5
8: 3-9
9: 1-5-6-7
10: 6-7

2x3x1x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$50 P4 Play:

7: 5-6-8
8: 3-9
9: 1-5-6-7
10: 6-7

3x2x4x2 = $48

COLONIAL DOWNS

PRE-SCRATCHES

7th: S/HCP, 3+, 9.75f-T (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Kurbat 7-5 3rd
Best Value: #1 Second Fiddle 6-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Rockin’ Joe 9-2 WON ($6.80)
Super Add: #9 Drivingmaxandmitzi 3-1 2nd

8th: Buckland, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #12 Lady Rizzi 7-2 WON ($10.60)
Best Value: #9 Kosmo’s Buddy 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Libor Lady 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #10 Suzzona 4-1 6th

9th: All Along (G3), F&M-3+, 9f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Shared Account 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #1 Dynaslew 4-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Tizaqueena 2-1 3rd-DH
Super Add: #8 Casablanca Smile 6-1 3rd-DH

$2 Exacta (5-1) Paid $23.80
$1 Trifecta (5-1-4) Paid $15.50
$1 Trifecta (5-1-8) Paid $24.50
$1 Superfecta (5-1-4-8) Paid $44.10
$1 Superfecta (5-1-8-4) Paid $50.10

10th: Colonial Turf Cup (G2), 3yo, 9.75f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Doubles Partner 5-2 4th
Next Best: #1 Paddy O’Prado 9-5 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #6 Dean’s Kitten 8-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Workin for Hops 9-2 2nd

@$75 P4 Play:

Super treacherous sequence, and with the possible prices elsewhere, I’ll stand with Linda Rice in the overflow turf sprint as a way to make the play affordable..

7: 1-2-4-9
8: 12
9: 1-4-5-8
10: 1-2-4-5-6

4x1x4x5 = $80 $1 P4 (2-12-5/6-1) Paid $288.10