Good day of racing at Belmont Thursday highlighted by the quality MSW 6th that featured a new up and comer for Juddmonte-Mott-Desormeaux in SILK ROUTE. Empire Maker daughter out of Grp. I placed Danzig mare Jibe motored late to best a well bred bunch of missies going 9f, and garnered an 86 Beyer in doing so. Looks to have nice upside for an outfit that treasures good potential dams. Great weekend on tap and will start at MTH with .50 P5 swing and HOL late night P6 carryover…

MONMOUTH PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

6th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (.50 P5, DD, Super)

Tough $50k heat with a number of droppers from live outfits; Looks like a spread race to start the P5..

Best Value: #1 Justkeepitsimple 8-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Proudtobeyourfriend 7-2 WON ($8.80)
Exotics Use: #10 Can’t Resist 9-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Datttcatsgotrhythm 12-1 9th

7th: CLM, 3/4yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Bad Debt 2-1 WON ($5.00)
Next Best: #6 Woodrunner 5-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Knack 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Dbl Nvisabl George 8-1 6th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Conga Bella 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Boom Town Sally 8-1 6th
Next Best: #6 Canary Diamond 3-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Reprieve 5-1 WON ($8.80)

9th: CLM, 3/4yo, 8.5f-T (P4, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ice Baby Ice 6-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Macho Prado 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Double Eagle 5-1 WON ($22.20)
Super Add:#8 Macho Chick 6-1 3th

10th: NJ-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Partyallnightlong 2-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #1 Blaise N Tony 6-1 7th
Next Best: #6 P J’s Back 9-2 4th
Super Add: #3 Mumbo 5-1 5th

<$75 P5 Play (.50):

6: 1-7-8-9-10
7: 2
8: 4-6-8
9: 2-3-4-7-8
10: 1-5-6

5x1x3x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75

HOLLYWOOD PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

3rd: CLM, 3+, 6f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #6 Trumpet Player Jay

Most Likely: #1 Get Funky 9-5 WON ($5.20)
Next Best: #5 Position A 5-2 3rd

4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Super Harmony 2-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Premiere Flyer 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Souvenir Slew 7-2 6th
Super Add: #4 SCR

5th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

SCR #7 A Moment in Time

Best Value: #4 Dontmesroundwitjim 6-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Dana Dynamo 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 Minister d’Oro 3-1 5th
Super Add: #3 Besame Suances 5-1 4th

6th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Hugs to All 2-1 5th
Best Value: #1 Dance Marino 8-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Wylie N Wyatt 5-2 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #5 Full Effect 8-1 6th

7th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Jack’s Wild 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #4 Danzing Tribal 5-1 4th
Next Best: #8 SCR
Super Add: #2 Troubletimesthree 8-1 5th

8th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (Super, Super High 5)

SCR #’s 2-7-10-14-15-16

Best Value: #9 Spectacular Slew 6-1 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #1 Gold Schleiger 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 SCR
Super Use: #8 Self Defense 6-1 7th
High 5 Play: #5 Stormy Ambition 5-1 4th

<$150 P6 Play:

3: 1
4: 3-6-7
5: 2-4
6: 1-4
7: 3-4
8: 1-4/SCR–9

1x3x2x2x2x3 = 72 x $2 = $144

<$75 P4 Play:

5: 1-2-4
6: 1-2-4-5
7: 3-4
8: 1-4-9

3x4x2x3 = $72

Was running the Belmont carryover table Sunday up to the nightcap where the mile and a quarter event tripped me up and ruined the afternoon. What looked initially like a difficult series went completely chalky, but admittedly had no clue what direction to go in on the classic distance lawn test. Going against the Pat Reynolds ML favorite and omitting him from the play turnedf out to be deadly. The prices on the P6 ($1,747) and P4 ($177) were hardly life-changing, but when you get to the finales in sequences like that, you want to close them out successfully. Three 5 of 6 conso tix at least cut the investment down by $85.

Generic Wednesday card at BEL today, but there are some short-priced favorites that are begging you to play against them, so it could be a fun afternoon.

BELMONT PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

1st: CLM, 3+, 6f-IT (P3, DD)

SCR #1, #5, #2b.. No superfecta..

Most Likely: #3 Prince Woodman 7-5 3rd
Next Best: #6 Matt’s a Giant 3-1 WON ($8.50)
Exotics Use: #1a Can’t Refuse 7-2 2nd

2nd: CLM, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)

You’re very much obligated to go against 8-5 Ramsgate in this spot. Even if he’s back to what he was with 500 days between starts, it still doesn’t assure him of a win here..

Best Value: #2 Eltish Star 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 My Daddio 4-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Missle Motor 8-1 3rd

3rd: OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)

Another spot where you want to go against a fave returning from injury at a short number. These types certainly can win coming from trainers like Jerkens, but you’ll make money long term going against them as win keys..

Best Value: #4 Saint Daimon 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Desert Key 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Love Abroad 15-1 4th

4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Not to pick on Chad Brown today, but doesn’t something kind of stink about Splendid Behavior’s solid debut for $50k and now the drop to $35k? If the horse was worth keeping, you’d move him to MSW company or at least keep him at $50k. Still the likliest winner, but doesn’t feel trustworthy..

Most Likely: #3 Splendid Behavior 9-5 2nd
Next Best: #2 El Gran Matador 6-1 4th
Best Value: #4 Maxahme 10-1 7th
Super Add: #6 Glory Chaser 6-1 5th

5th: S/ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-T (G/S, P3, DD)

Best Value: #6 Higher Incentive 12-1 7th
Most Likely: #8 Ambidaxtrous 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Exiled Princess 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1a Exclusive Scheme 6-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

2: 2-3-5-6
3: 2-4-5
4: 2-3
5: 4-6-8

4x3x2x3 = $72

6th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #1 Cheyenne Nation 9-5 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #6 Al Muhtasib 5-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Macedonian 4-1 2nd

7th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 No Rhyme Or Reason 7-5 WON ($3.50)
Best Value: #3 Alykela 12-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Z Cats Meow 5-2 3rd
Super Add: #1 Our Montana Dream 30-1 8th

8th: S/ALW, 3+, 1m (DD)

SCR favored #4 Harmonizer 2-1.. No superfecta..

Best Value:#7 Long Jump 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Magic Lion 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #5 Web Gem 8-1 4th

9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f-T (Super)

Best Value: #10 Pegasus Ena 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Scorper 5-2 WON ($6.50)
Exotics Use: #1 Peyton’s Heart 5-1 6th
Super Add: #3 Buffalo Runner 8-1 4th

<$75 P4 Play:

6: 1-6
7: 3-4-7
8: 3-5-7
9: 1-3-7-10

2x3x3x4 = $72 $1 P4 (1-7/9-3/4-7/11) Paid $35.50

Heavyweight day of racing Saturday featured multitude of significant performances with impact on the national scene, as Blame overcame the difficult post to win the Foster, Rail Trip continued his steady resume-building and Rachel Alexandra moved closer to her ’09 form in a facile Fleur victory. In addition, Life at Ten proceeded towards the upper reaches of the Distaff division with a Gr. I Phipps win while Get Serious outpaced Precious Passion and the rest of the Gr. 3 Monmouth field. Upsets ruled the pair of 3yo turf tests at Churchill, with likable Gleam of Hope ($20) and impossible Caminadora ($66.80) taking the Northern Dancer and Regret. Caught a couple of P3’s at Churchill and an isolated hit here and there while playing from Belmont Saturday, but the big plays were unsuccessful on cards that had their share of tough to use horses.

Double Carryover at Churchill payed more than $200k deservedly, and a Belmont sextet pool on a nearly impossible sequence is available today. Hope you did OK and enjoyed the fun day of racing Saturday. Zenyatta later this evening in the Gr. 1 Vanity, and those without ADW or race network access can watch at NTRA.com.

BELMONT PARK

PRE-SCRATCHES

5th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #2 Fantasma 9-2 6th
Next Best: #6 Cat Be Nimble 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Fashion Insider 3-1 WON ($8.20)
Super Add: #8 Remark 7-2 2nd

6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Makeminechocolate 3-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Mystic City 5-2 WON ($5.90)
Exotics Use: #1 Es Mia 6-1 5th
Super Add: #9 Bobity Boo 5-1 2nd

7th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Amirahy 7-2 8th
Next Best: #6 Storm Showers 3-1 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #1 (POE) Wicked Ravnina 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Pin Turn 5-1 3rd

8th: NYB-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Lots of Stones 9-2 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #3 Silvercup Baby 5-1 4th
Next Best: #2 SCR
Super Add: #5 Doremifasolatido 3-1 3rd

9th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Karakorum Legend 2-1 WON ($6.80)
Best Value: #7 Flowersonyourback 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Too Amenable 7-2 6th
Super Add: #2 Six Flings 10-1 4th

10th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (Super)

Holy cow.. Some way to end a P6 carryover sequence! Utterly unknown quantities going mile and quarter/three turns..

Most Likely: #5 Chingachgook 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Joba 10-1 8th
Next Best: #10 Shekomeko Son 3-1 4th
Super Add: #1 N P Cat 8-1 10th

<$200 P6 Play:

5: 2-3-6-8
6: 5-7
7: 4-6
8: 3-6
9: 3
10: 5-6-10

4x2x2x2x1x3 = 96 x $2 = $192

$2 P6 (3-7-6-6-3-9) 5 Correct Paid $28.60 X 3 = $85.80

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 1-4-6
8: 3-6
9: 2-3-7-8
10: 5-6-10

3x2x4x3 = $72

BELMONT PARKPOST-SCRATCHES

 

4th: 42nd Ogden Phipps H. (G1), F&M-3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #2 Life at Ten 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #3 Unrivaled Belle 1-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Funny Moon 5-2 3rd

7th: MSW, 3+, 6f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #3 Fiscal Stimulus 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Baatesh 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Strictly Society 5-2 4th
Super Add: #7 Snickered 6-1 6th

8th: NYB-ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #10 Sounds Familiar 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Song for Pupcake 7-2 6th
Best Value: #2 Justinline 20-1 8th
Exotics Use: #1e Contessa entry 4-1 4th

9th: NYB-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)

Mind-bogglingly impossible race..

Most Likely: #3 Black Minotaur 5-1 7th
Best Value: #4 Onzain 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #2e P. Ortiz entry 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Bishop of Nola 8-1 6th

10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super)

Best Value: #9 Naughty You 8-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Parkinson Field 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #7 Evenforever 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Lion Under Oath 20-1 WON ($23.40)

<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-6-8
8: 2-4-10
9: 2-3-4-7
10: 9-10

3x3x4x2 = $72

CHURCHILL DOWNS

POST-SCRATCHES

4th: OC/N1X, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Aspire 2-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Good Lord 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Spicer 3-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Dancing Roman 12-1 6th

5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 4.4d (P3, DD, Super)

Baby fillies including Pletcher’s #2 Blue Orleans, a half sister to Pico Central, Asmussen’s #8 Time Counts, half to Rated Fiesty, and AE #13 Mariastheboss, half to Peekskill..

Most Likely: #2 Blue Orleans 7-2 WON ($4.40)
Next Best: #8 Time Counts 4-1 6th
Best Value: #10 Kathmanblu 12-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Dancing Compass 5-1 7th

6th:36th Fleur De Lis (G2), F&M-3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)

For her 3rd start of the year, Rachel Alexandra finds herself in a similar spot to the March and April events that found her narrowly beaten by solid but undistinguished mares. Here she gives a significant 8 pounds to Jessica is Back, an experienced, hard-knocking Wolfson 6yo who utilizes the same style as the 2009 Horse of the Year. Added pressure can come from Avila’s Made for Magic who returns to real dirt (9/3-2-3) and could sit off a possible duel between the top pair. She should win, but going 9 panels with uncertainty about how she is ridden, this is not nearly as easy an assignment for Rachel Alexandra as some are making out..

Most Likely: #4 Rachel Alexandra 2-5 WON ($2.20)
Next Best: #5 Jessica is Back 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Made for Magic 10-1 5th

7th: 35th Jefferson Cup (G3), 3yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Our Douglas 4-1 4th
Best Value: #2 Gleam of Hope 8-1 WON ($20.00)
Next Best: #3 Asphalt 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #6 Don’t Tell Kitten 15-1 7th

<$75 P4 Play:

4: 1-3-5
5: 2-8
6: 2-4-5
7: 2-3-4-6-7-8

3x2x3x6 = 108 x .50 = $54

8th: 13th Northern Dancer (G3), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 Vow to Wager 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Colizeo 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Prince Will I Am 4-1 5th
Super Add: #1 Worldly 6-1 2nd

9th: 41st Regret (G3), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Like last week’s Acorn at Belmont, 13 sophomore fillies with varying degrees of accomplishment. Completely wide open, and nature of turf racing makes this the toughest race of the day..

Most Likely: #5 Queen of the Creek 7-2 12th
Next Best: #10 Dynazapper 4-1 5th
Best Value: #9 Queen Hazel 50-1 3rd
Super Add: #8 It’s Tea Time 9-2 4th

10th: 29th Stephen Foster H. (G1), 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

Delightfully intriguing version of this increasingly anticipated early summer standard. Wide array of authentic stakes talent is sprinkled throughout this lineup, with perfectly constructed variety of pace preferences that seem to assure a fairly run race. Hard to endorse ML second choice Blame, who is 3-1 and widely outposted, and tough to ignore presence of Stephanie Beattie’s honest No Advantage, 30-1 with Calvin Borel taking the call..

Best Value: #7 Honest Man 15-1 9th
Next Best: #2 Battle Plan 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #4 Duke of Mischief 6-1 8th
Super Add: #8 No Advantage 30-1 11th

11th: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m OFF THE TURF (Super, Super Hi-5)

3-1 ML favorite Carriage Trade was a $1.5 million Storm Cat Saratoga Yearling buy for Team Valor. She may live up to that price tag yet, but it’s hard to believe a mile turf race was her original goal..

Most Likely: #13 Poplar Girl 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #10 SCR
Exotics Use: #6 Fly Angel Fly 15-1 4th
Super Add: #3 Mega Dream 8-1 3rd

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 4
7: 2-3-8
8: 4-5
9: 5-10
10: 2-4-7-8
11: 10/SCR-13

1x3x2x2x4x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

<$75 P4 Play:

8: 4-5
9: 5-8-9-10
10: 2-3-4-5-6-7-8-11
11: 10/SCR-13

2x4x8x2 = 128 x .50 = $68

MONMOUTH PARK

POST-SCRATCHES

3rd: Skip Away, 3+, 8.5f (P3, DD)

Best Value: #3 Mighty Morris 4-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Cool Coal Man 2-1 WON ($4.60)
Exotics Use: #4 Gone Astray 9-5 3rd

6th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P5, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 The Defense Rests 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Morethanatale 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Six Gun City 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Dark Thunder 9-2 WON ($12.00)

7th: NJ-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #8 Jack Taylor 5-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Dream Waltz 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Colonial Legacy 12-1 WON ($58.40)
Super Add: #10 Tiger Grr 15-1 10th

8th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Hatheer 3-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Blushing Dixie 5-2 4th
Best Value: #8 Stormy Dixie 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #1e Moran entry 6-1 2nd

9th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-70y (P4, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 African Diamond 7-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Greatsilversaint 8-1 8th
Next Best: #10 SCR
Super Add: #2 SCR

10th: 3rd Monmouth (G3), 3+, 9f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Dynamoor 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #8 Blues Street 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #2 Baletti 4-1 6th
Super Add: #1 Get Serious 6-1 WON ($16.00)

<$100 P5 Play:

6: 1-2-10
7: 1-8
8: 5-8-9
9: 1-5
10: 1-2-4-6-8

3x2x3x2x5 = 180 x .50 = $90