5/2 (CD): 140th Kentucky Oaks (G1); 5 Undercard Stakes

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

I get that she's up against it from a pace standpoint but I think My Miss Sophia can absolutely beat Untapable Friday. I was all over Untapable in her return at Fair Grounds and am therefore a big admirer..I said before the race I thought she would stamp herself as the Oaks favorite...that said, My Miss Sophia beat Got Lucky every bit as decisively as Untapable. I know that the pace advantage she had in that race was unreal but sometimes I think as handicappers we see that and overthink it. No, My Miss Sophia was not going to be challenged on the lead in her last..but to assume that she wouldn't have been every bit as impressive if she did face some more pace presence I think is a bit presumptive.

I'm not saying I think Untapable will lose. I think she is a very deserving favorite and the most likely winner...but My Miss Sophia "no chance" talk I think is crazy. And given their posts I don't think it is that impossible that a couple others (Ria Antonia, Thank You Marylou and Unbridled Forever IMO) will be in with a shot.

Nice card -- sure feels like Will Take Charge and Normany Invasion (in particular) could get beat. Appealing Tale, at first glance, might prove tough to reel in.

Im looking at the Alysheba now. Between the 1 and 9 I think there is enough speed to not let Appealing Tale steal the race.

[GPK]

Kiss Moon for me, but mainly as a price to fill out the exacta. I just don't think anyone beats Untapable.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by GPK

Kiss Moon for me, but mainly as a price to fill out the exacta. I just don't think anyone beats Untapable.

you're probably right, but I'm using Kiss Moon on top in some Oaks/Derby doubles.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

you're probably right, but I'm using Kiss Moon on top in some Oaks/Derby doubles.

I will be using her in some horizontals, but in race, she will be underneath on most tickets.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im looking at the Alysheba now. Between the 1 and 9 I think there is enough speed to not let Appealing Tale steal the race.

Maybe. That said, Bradester's best two races came A. Setting a soft pace (Lezcano was up that day) and B. Sitting just off a fair to soft pace. Granted, his last was against (IMO) the best horse in training (Palace Malice) but he set a hot pace there and completely folded.
Moonshine Mullin simply cannot run with Appealing Tale. You really think Calvin gets super aggressive and forces the issue? I guess after the last front running score he might, especially from the rail...but I would think he'd be content to try to save ground and lay just off an (to me) obviously faster horse.
And even if they don't go crazy it still might not be enough to steal the race. But honestly, I think if the pace is super soft it might hurt AT's chances...he's the type that you want to run fast early and make them chase or get a bid lead and try to hold on.
Anyway, I'll be using WTC, AT and Golden Ticket all as A's...Normandy is a B for me.

Anyone commence any sort of opinions in the 9th? Least favorite kind of race for me (as a pk-3/pk-4 player) where I can only really feel comfortable tossing the 9, but can't really knock the favorites.