5/2 (CD): 140th Kentucky Oaks (G1); 5 Undercard Stakes

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by philcski

I love it when the second choice has absolutely no shot.

I agree, shes just not good enough. Even if she was loan speed I don't think she would have much of a chance.

[theguarantee]

I get that she's up against it from a pace standpoint but I think My Miss Sophia can absolutely beat Untapable Friday. I was all over Untapable in her return at Fair Grounds and am therefore a big admirer..I said before the race I thought she would stamp herself as the Oaks favorite...that said, My Miss Sophia beat Got Lucky every bit as decisively as Untapable. I know that the pace advantage she had in that race was unreal but sometimes I think as handicappers we see that and overthink it. No, My Miss Sophia was not going to be challenged on the lead in her last..but to assume that she wouldn't have been every bit as impressive if she did face some more pace presence I think is a bit presumptive.

I'm not saying I think Untapable will lose. I think she is a very deserving favorite and the most likely winner...but My Miss Sophia "no chance" talk I think is crazy. And given their posts I don't think it is that impossible that a couple others (Ria Antonia, Thank You Marylou and Unbridled Forever IMO) will be in with a shot.

Nice card -- sure feels like Will Take Charge and Normany Invasion (in particular) could get beat. Appealing Tale, at first glance, might prove tough to reel in.

[lemoncrush]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

I get that she's up against it from a pace standpoint but I think My Miss Sophia can absolutely beat Untapable Friday. I was all over Untapable in her return at Fair Grounds and am therefore a big admirer..I said before the race I thought she would stamp herself as the Oaks favorite...that said, My Miss Sophia beat Got Lucky every bit as decisively as Untapable. I know that the pace advantage she had in that race was unreal but sometimes I think as handicappers we see that and overthink it. No, My Miss Sophia was not going to be challenged on the lead in her last..but to assume that she wouldn't have been every bit as impressive if she did face some more pace presence I think is a bit presumptive.

I'm not saying I think Untapable will lose. I think she is a very deserving favorite and the most likely winner...but My Miss Sophia "no chance" talk I think is crazy. And given their posts I don't think it is that impossible that a couple others (Ria Antonia, Thank You Marylou and Unbridled Forever IMO) will be in with a shot.

Nice card -- sure feels like Will Take Charge and Normany Invasion (in particular) could get beat. Appealing Tale, at first glance, might prove tough to reel in.

I think they were taking about Fashion Plate (6-1), not My Miss Sophia ( 8-1)

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by lemoncrush

I think they were taking about Fashion Plate (6-1), not My Miss Sophia ( 8-1)

I was talking about Fashion PLate. I think Sophia has a huge shot.

[theguarantee]

^That makes more sense. Does anyone actually believe she will be second choice though?

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^That makes more sense. Does anyone actually believe she will be second choice though?

She might be. 2 grade 1 wins and her jockey is always bet.
Here are my Oaks thoughts from a few days ago. The draw changed nothing.

Untapable—X. Clearly the horse to beat, but I’ll try to beat her. She’s going to be 7-5 or lower vs a big field. She will be singled on 80% of the 2 day pick 3 tickets, that’s all Im looking to play Friday. If she wins I’ll be back for Saturday, if she gets beat I should be setup on some solid tickets.
Sugar Shock—X. Seems like one of many potential speeds, seems a bit slow to me. She might also have distance limitations as she lugged out badly 2 back.
Fashion Place—X. Another speed horse, she has gotten away with murder 2 starts in a row. Even if she was the loan speed I would not cover. Nothing wrong w/ a dual G1 winner, but she is not for me.
My Miss Sophia—A. Potential superstar. Has to improve to beat the top horse, but they all do. She feels like the 1 filly who can beat Untapable even if Untapable runs her good race.
Rosalind—B. I think she is clearly a better synthetic horse. She got a wicked pace in the BC Juvy Fillies, she should have blown by the leaders and kinda just plugged along. I don’t love her, but I think she gets the same pace again, and she’s doing well right now off of the big Keeneland dead heat. I think she was clearly best in that dead heat as Joel moved her early.
Got Lucky—A. On paper she’s not good enough. I get it, but I see excuses in her last 2. Both races were pace less, both races she appears to be getting scrubbed on early, both races she comes running a little for second. On paper the Oaks fast should be quick and she can be a player late. She’s like Rosalind w/ more upside.
Aurelias Belle—X. Consistent runner, another who is better on synthetics. Her dirt races are simply not good enough. If she was going 1st time dirt I would give her a look at 20-1, but she’s already proven to be just mediocre on dirt.
Ria Antonia—X. The worst BC Juvy Fillies winner ever, actually ran well last time out chasing an easy leader. Shes just not that good, even the GOAT cant get her home in this race.
Kiss Moon—X. Only 1 bad career race, but just seems overmatched to me. Working well, if I played in race exotics I would use her underneath.
Fiftyshadesofgold—X. Another speed horse. She would be much better off in the 8 Belles earlier on the card. I would give her a long look in that race on the cutback against the defending 2yr old filly champ.
Unbridled Forever—B. Not a fan of her trainer, but a huge fan of this filly. Her mom won this race at a huge price, not that that matters. Should sit a perfect trip as an overlay, everyone but the top 2 will be overlays in this race.
Thank You Marylou—X. Her trainer comes off a horrible Keeneland meet. She looks like a closing sprinter to me. Like We Miss Artie on Saturday I don’t think she belongs in this race, but is in because of her trainer and owner.
Empress Of Midway—X. She could be very talented, but this is asking a lot to soon. She is also another 1 who will be up on the pace.

A’s----- My Miss Sophia and Got Lucky
B’s----- Rosalind and Unbridled Forever
X's----- Everyone else

[philcski]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^That makes more sense. Does anyone actually believe she will be second choice though?

I think My Miss Sophia will end up being 2nd choice in the end, but yes I was referring to Fashion Plate based on the ML.

[knickslions2]

pps

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/14Oaks.pdf

[ateamstupid]

On the one hand, Untapable looks like a total standout on paper.

On the other hand, Rosie from the 13-hole.

Think I'll have some other coverage.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

On the one hand, Untapable looks like a total standout on paper.

On the other hand, Rosie from the 13-hole.

Think I'll have some other coverage.

She can go 3 wide 3 wide and still win, comfortably. I would prefer that to getting her stuck in traffic inside trying to save ground.

[jms62]

My play will revolve around (in order)

13-Untapable
3-Sugar Shock
6-Kiss Moon
9-Unbridled Forever

[NTamm1215]

She'll probably end up the 2nd choice, but I'm definitely using Rosalind in the Oaks.

[TouchOfGrey]

Normandy Invasion scratched from Alysheba after returning from track this morning with a minor hoof issue, as per Fox Hill Farm tweet.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

I get that she's up against it from a pace standpoint but I think My Miss Sophia can absolutely beat Untapable Friday. I was all over Untapable in her return at Fair Grounds and am therefore a big admirer..I said before the race I thought she would stamp herself as the Oaks favorite...that said, My Miss Sophia beat Got Lucky every bit as decisively as Untapable. I know that the pace advantage she had in that race was unreal but sometimes I think as handicappers we see that and overthink it. No, My Miss Sophia was not going to be challenged on the lead in her last..but to assume that she wouldn't have been every bit as impressive if she did face some more pace presence I think is a bit presumptive.

I'm not saying I think Untapable will lose. I think she is a very deserving favorite and the most likely winner...but My Miss Sophia "no chance" talk I think is crazy. And given their posts I don't think it is that impossible that a couple others (Ria Antonia, Thank You Marylou and Unbridled Forever IMO) will be in with a shot.

Nice card -- sure feels like Will Take Charge and Normany Invasion (in particular) could get beat. Appealing Tale, at first glance, might prove tough to reel in.

Im looking at the Alysheba now. Between the 1 and 9 I think there is enough speed to not let Appealing Tale steal the race.

[GPK]

Kiss Moon for me, but mainly as a price to fill out the exacta. I just don't think anyone beats Untapable.

[herkhorse]

Originally Posted by GPK

Kiss Moon for me, but mainly as a price to fill out the exacta. I just don't think anyone beats Untapable.

you're probably right, but I'm using Kiss Moon on top in some Oaks/Derby doubles.

[GPK]

Originally Posted by herkhorse

you're probably right, but I'm using Kiss Moon on top in some Oaks/Derby doubles.

I will be using her in some horizontals, but in race, she will be underneath on most tickets.

[theguarantee]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Im looking at the Alysheba now. Between the 1 and 9 I think there is enough speed to not let Appealing Tale steal the race.

Maybe. That said, Bradester's best two races came A. Setting a soft pace (Lezcano was up that day) and B. Sitting just off a fair to soft pace. Granted, his last was against (IMO) the best horse in training (Palace Malice) but he set a hot pace there and completely folded.
Moonshine Mullin simply cannot run with Appealing Tale. You really think Calvin gets super aggressive and forces the issue? I guess after the last front running score he might, especially from the rail...but I would think he'd be content to try to save ground and lay just off an (to me) obviously faster horse.
And even if they don't go crazy it still might not be enough to steal the race. But honestly, I think if the pace is super soft it might hurt AT's chances...he's the type that you want to run fast early and make them chase or get a bid lead and try to hold on.
Anyway, I'll be using WTC, AT and Golden Ticket all as A's...Normandy is a B for me.

Anyone commence any sort of opinions in the 9th? Least favorite kind of race for me (as a pk-3/pk-4 player) where I can only really feel comfortable tossing the 9, but can't really knock the favorites.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

I agree, shes just not good enough. Even if she was loan speed I don't think she would have much of a chance.

what if she bought it outright instead?

[Clip-Clop]

Originally Posted by Danzig

what if she bought it outright instead?

Her speed is on layaway.