Dr Roman tabs Master of Hounds in Derby

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

I use the DP number in regards to winner only (which is all I ever said), I have no idea, indeed no interest in how it effects overall performance. I doubt anyone has ranked every horse in every Derby using same...for what purpose? If one claims it is an indicator of overall performance, that would be a different story, but since I (and others) use it strictly as an indicator of a horse's chance of winning....the only data of interest to me is it's performance regarding winners. After yesterday, only 3 horses since 1940 have won with less than 16 points, only one since 1950. One last time, this is one of a large number of factors I use in attempting to pick a winner, this year it didn't work, neither did a race within 6 weeks, 5 or more lifetime starts (which did apply to post time favorite as well) and having at least on race on dirt...probably why the winner paid $48+. It's horse racing and no person, and no set of facts is an absolute. Next year, if I'm still alive and in control of my facilities, I'll use DP again as one factor, and you clearly won't. I am not under any obligation to defend the dosage system, feel free to ask Dr Roman if my answer falls short of expectations.

Feel free to use whatever system you wish. I simply have pointed out to those who may not understand that the "system" is slanted toward success.

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

Feel free to use whatever system you wish. I simply have pointed out to those who may not understand that the "system" is slanted toward success.

Fair enough! Life would be dull if we all thought the same.

[somerfrost]

You made me curious, so I took the time to check in the money (1-3) finishers since 1999....before this year, 0 winners, 1 place finisher (Closing Argument with 10 in 2005) and 5 show finishers (Musket Man with 10 in 2009, Denis of Cork with 14 in 2008, Afleet Alex with 14 in 2005, Imperialism with 14 in 2004, and Impeachment with 14 in 2000). Obviously, DP less than 16 is worthless in predicting show finishers, reasonable in predicting place. In fact with only 41 horses failing to reach 16 since 1999, 5 of 41 is a higher % than the total fields %. Again, did this out of curiosity as I'm only concerned with winners.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

You made me curious, so I took the time to check in the money (1-3) finishers since 1999....before this year, 0 winners, 1 place finisher (Closing Argument with 10 in 2005) and 5 show finishers (Musket Man with 10 in 2009, Denis of Cork with 14 in 2008, Afleet Alex with 14 in 2005, Imperialism with 14 in 2004, and Impeachment with 14 in 2000). Obviously, DP less than 16 is worthless in predicting show finishers, reasonable in predicting place. In fact with only 41 horses failing to reach 16 since 1999, 5 of 41 is a higher % than the total fields %. Again, did this out of curiosity as I'm only concerned with winners.

This is so ridiculous.