Dr Roman tabs Master of Hounds in Derby

[somerfrost]

Originally Posted by Port Conway Lane

There is no angle. This is the same BS that dosage was 20 years ago.
Take a result, find a number that fits the result without any consideration of the percentage of runners that fall above or below the number and give no credit to runners who may have been below the level and ran a good race.

When Middleground won the derby suddenly it was apparent that 16 was the number for the DP and his victory was an abberation.17 is a good number but the problem with 17 is that while someone was scanning through the results of the last 50 years 17 came up quite a few times and that would not fit the system.

Now if it was proven that >16 runners consistently outperformed <16 runners for 2nd,3rd etc., then the DP may have some merit. Until someone shows me proof of that it's nothing more than voodoo.

Gee, you talk about facts yet you state 17 came up quite a few times....no winner has ever had 17! Since 1940, the first year dosage was used, 9 horses have had a DP with less than 20 points. Count Fleet (1943) had only 4 and Middleground (1950) had 12....since then 16 is the lowest number and has occurred 5 times (Mine that Bird the last in 2009), no winner has had 17 or 19, two (Gato Del Sol in 1982 and Monarchos in 2001) had 18. You can dismiss DP, that's your choice as it is mine to consider it but get your "facts" straight!