3-year-old Recap - Updated Derby Chances

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Nevertheless, she's still probably Todd Pletcher's best shot to get back-to-back Derby victories.

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

Duca was the only other horse in the Wood Memorial 2nd off the layoff - and he had the exact same running style as Uncle Mo ...




You can say - well, he only won a maiden last out. But the horse who was 2nd in that maiden race came back and closed against a moderate pace and actually ran a pretty nice figure when 2nd in the Ill Derby next time out.

A horse like Arthur's Tale was making his 7th start at 8f or more - in a span of less than the last 7 months. He already had 3 two-turn route races under him this year... and he's been working steadily between races. He had a monumental 'fitness' and 'foundation' edge on Uncle Mo.

Toby's Corner also had 3 routes under his belt this year - unlike Uncle Mo - he had a 6f workout under his belt.... and I've liked Toby's Corner enough to keep posting odds for him to win the Derby every week - even though he had almost zero Graded earnings this week and only had one race to try and get it.

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

You really think R Heat Lightening has a better chance of winning than Uncle Mo?

No. I was joking. The only race I've seen of R Heat Lightning's was the Davona Dale.

I guess people want to work with the angle 'Uncle Mo's just not the same horse since his secret surgery after the Breeders Cup' .... perhaps - but it's hardly conclusive at this point.

Not sure of any of that, but I certainly wouldn't be working the angle that Todd Pletcher was racing Uncle Mo into condition, either.

By the way, the most productive race on the Derby trail (albeit with the advantage of position on the calendar) was the Count Fleet. Should be a Grade 3 next year.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Not sure of any of that, but I certainly wouldn't be working the angle that Todd Pletcher was racing Uncle Mo into condition, either.

I agree with you on that ...

However, in hindsight, these 9f dirt routes at AQU have all been run like battle of attrition/survival of the fittest type races - and speed has really had no success relative to expectations for a dirt surface.

Velazquez was riding him like he was on a loaded keg of dynamite - and when he finally asked - he really looked like a very tired horse who was trying to give his best to no avail.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I agree with you on that ...

However, in hindsight, these 9f dirt routes at AQU have all been run like battle of attrition/survival of the fittest type races - and speed has really had no success relative to expectations for a dirt surface.

Velazquez was riding him like he was on a loaded keg of dynamite - and when he finally asked - he really looked like a very tired horse who was trying to give his best to no avail.

Uncle Mo's Wood effort basically confirmed he's somewhere between Favorite Trick and Fly So Free in terms of Derby potential. I wonder how he would have fared in the Florida Derby. If he was truly a short horse, I suppose he would have got buried even worse than in NY, but conversely, maybe as you say he was simply a sitting duck on the lead at Aqueduct, and theoretically could have established a stalking position at GP.

Maybe it was going to happen even if Uncle Mo had won the Wood Memorial as planned, but it's interesting that Pletcher is throwing everything he's got in his barn at the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. I wonder if he'll scrape up anything left for the Lexington.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Uncle Mo's Wood effort basically confirmed he's somewhere between Favorite Trick and Fly So Free in terms of Derby potential. I wonder how he would have fared in the Florida Derby. If he was truly a short horse, I suppose he would have got buried even worse than in NY, but conversely, maybe as you say he was simply a sitting duck on the lead at Aqueduct, and theoretically could have established a stalking position at GP.

Maybe it was going to happen even if Uncle Mo had won the Wood Memorial as planned, but it's interesting that Pletcher is throwing everything he's got in his barn at the Blue Grass and Arkansas Derby. I wonder if he'll scrape up anything left for the Lexington.

Even though I still have Uncle Mo's chances of winning at 18.5% - meaning I'd gladly take 10/1 on him now - but wouldn't touch 5/1 - I think it's clear Dialed In is infintiely the most likely horse to run 1-2-3 at this point.

UM's big Churchill win came off of a 94 figure Champagne win. His Wood performance was no worse than his Champagne race IMO - though, you'd sure expect a 3yo this time of year to improve over a 2nd career start at age 2.

To me - UM's not going to run 3rd in a race like the Derby ... he's either off the Superfecta ticket or he wins .. perhaps could run 2nd - though that's even less likely than him winning IMO.

Dialed In might be 14.5% to win .. but he might be 20% to run 3rd.