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#1
11-04-2010, 10:50 PM
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I agree though - this morning line is pretty bad both days. 
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#2
11-04-2010, 11:00 PM
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Evening Jewel is my best bet on friday.
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#4
11-04-2010, 11:26 PM
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#5
11-05-2010, 12:29 AM
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Saturday Thoughts:
Juvenile Turf
Utley might be a pretty important horse for me. Much like with Vale of York - I'm in love with the race he's exiting .. he only was a non-threatening 5th there though - but at least we got something from that race to come here. His dam won her North American debut at a big price in the Del Mar Oaks - not sure that means a whole lot. I expect others imports to get more attention. It's going to be a deflating start if I don't get this one. The monster betting days so often seem to be ignited with a horse like this. Sprint There's really not a whole lot of pure one-way speed - and Pachito the Che has just a single race that wins this if he's loose - Cash Refund has just a single race that wins this if he's loose - Atta Boy Roy is the other one way speed capable of running big early numbers .. he's a little better sprinter than the other two - but I don't see a race on his form that makes me feel like he can win this. However, with Big Drama drawing the rail - and taking into consideration that the three horses above are probably all going to get a little more aggressive ride because they're all longshots... I think there's probably enough pace in here to setup Warrior's Reward. Turf Sprint Just using Stardivinsky, Unzip Me, Quick Enough, Grand Adventure, and Tropical Storm in the multi wins. I would have been pretty excited about Tropical Storm if he didn't draw the 13 hole. Juvenile Uncle Mo and Boys at Tusconva have both already exceeded the Beyer par for this race sprinting - it's merely now a matter of what they can do at a middle distance. Jaycito is the only other horse who appears capable of winning. He's by a Belmont Stakes winner and his performance last time was outstanding. Exacta box Jaycito over Uncle Mo and BatT Mile A simple exacta backwheel of Gio Ponti to the only rational contenders is a bet I've had a great deal of luck with on multiple occasions this year. His win last time out was in a race just tailor made for him. You had 3 quality speeds. One hopeless speed that was going to go out and spoil the race for the 3 quality speeds... and basically the only two remaining horse were Gio Ponti in the hapless Society's Chairman. Gio Ponti won what amounted to a match race over Society's Chairman in a final time slower than Provisio needed to edge out C. S Silk at the same distance on the same card. The three quality speeds in there where all compromised by the desperate and hopeless cheap speed. The performance by Gio Ponti was so underwhelming - that it's got me scratching my head and wondering if he's good enough to run 2nd here - and if the bet is even worth it because he will attract money. I'm going back to the well one more time. I'll be keying Gio Ponti in the 2nd slot - using only Paco Boy, The Usual QT, Sidney's Candy, and Goldikova in the top slot. Dirt Mile Crown of Thorns will probably go off as the post time favorite - even though his last win came in early Feb of 2008 and he's never started on dirt before. I'm pretty upset that Girolamo isn't here and Vinyard Haven isn't in the Sprint. I like VH in the Sprint - I'm not sure he can get a mile. I love Girolamo here - but absolutely hate him in the Sprint. Gayego ran the fastest route Beyer in the history of PID last time out. Successful Dan earned a 98 for 2nd place - and has come back with a pair of triple digit Beyers at Keeneland - including a Grade 2 score with a 105 Beyer last time out. Gayego took the Arkansas Derby in his first career dirt attempt. I feel lost in this race. Turf The Euro's will dominate this race. It's inevitable. Classic Quality Road has several races that win this. His last two performances at Saratoga aren't among them however. I expect him to win. Blame seems very certain to get a piece. He would rank among the all-time worst BC Classic winners ever if he's somehow able to pull this off...but a simple combo of QR running to his Saratoga form, Haynesfield getting softened up enough by QR and Zenyatta failing to adjust to the pace - would figure to make Blame the most likely winner. I'm not going to use Zenyatta in the trifecta or superfecta. I don't like her chances of winning - especially in relation to her odds - and I hate her chances of running like 3rd or 4th - or maybe even 2nd to any horse outside of Quality Road. If Zenyatta is able to run 12 to 15 lengths faster early than she's been running - and is still comfortable with going that fast early - and doesn't lose her final kick ... she'll probably absolutely blow the doors off of this field. Forget about a narrow win .. it will be a good margin. I'll believe it when I see it. I expect her to look way flatter than she's ever looked and hopefully she's unable to grind it out for 4th. She's a true wildcard at best in there - and is going to be bet like a horse who has several recent races on her form that put her in the winners circle with a repeat.
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#6
11-05-2010, 12:34 AM
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I'm surprised you aren't using Court Vision at all.
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#7
11-05-2010, 01:12 AM
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I thought Court Vision had a wonderful setup and perfect trip in the Woodbine Mile win. I liked him more than The Usual QT going into that race - but I actually thought that The Usual QT ran the better race of the two that day and the outcome didn't reflect that ... so that's basically why I'm not using Court Vision and will be using The Usual QT.
This is one of the funniest Breeders Cup's I ever remember from a handicapping and betting standpoint. I'm so used to having such strong convictions for these races because I follow all regions and circuits closely all year long. It's not like you can have those strong convictions any more - mostly because of synthetic surfaces. Only a complete fool can have strong convictions about a single horse winning in some of these races. It's actually A LOT easier to handicap these BC cards on synthetic. It's basically synthetic form versus turf form - the Euro's are a lot stronger - and toss the dirt horses - especially the ones with speed. It's dizzying when it's on dirt. You got the 19% takeout on super's and pick 4's at Churchill - and a lot of the biggest and better bettors are really just regional guys - so sharpies can become dopes on days like this. It's going to be interesting to see how some of these races are bet.
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#8
11-05-2010, 01:45 AM
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Obviously I like QT more.
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#9
11-05-2010, 02:55 AM
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Marathon
Alcomo Bright Horizon Gabriel's Hill Precision Break F/M Sprint Sara Louise Champagne d'Oro Rightly So Informed Decision Juv Fillies Awesome Feather R Heat Lightning Tell a Kelly AZ Warrior F/M Turf Midday Harmonious Forever Together Red Desire Distaff Life At Ten Unrivaled Belle Blind Luck Havre de Grace
__________________
The real horses of the year (1986-2020) Manila, Java Gold, Alysheba, Sunday Silence, Go for Wand, In Excess, Paseana, Kotashaan, Holy Bull, Cigar, Alphabet Soup, Formal Gold, Skip Away, Artax, Tiznow, Point Given, Azeri, Candy Ride, Smarty Jones, Ghostzapper, Invasor, Curlin, Zenyatta, Zenyatta, Goldikova, Havre de Grace, Wise Dan, Wise Dan, California Chrome, American Pharoah, Arrogate, Gun Runner, Accelerate, Maximum Security, Gamine
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#10
11-05-2010, 05:38 AM
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Funny how Shirreffs is suppose to be so scared, but he takes a shot with Harmonious. She should of easily won that day at Del Mar. She was wet before that race. She's her own worst enemy. I don't know why she was that wide late in the race. Smith takes her way wide on the turn, and never got her to come back in. Like I said she was bothered by the crowd (or whatever,) and looked horrible 5 minutes before post. Still had plenty of run, but wasted it. She's talented. She's not limited by some figure. She's limited more by herself. Find out today if she's able to hang with these. Wouldn't just toss her out, but that's me. She's a bad ride away from being a three time Grade 1 winner.Those were 3 year olds, and we'll see if she can compete with these.
Last edited by SCUDSBROTHER : 11-05-2010 at 05:48 AM.
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#11
11-06-2010, 04:06 PM
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#12
11-06-2010, 04:11 PM
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Thanks. The Usual QT and Paco Boy getting 3rd and 4th was big for me. Hadn't been a good day at all to that point.
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#13
11-06-2010, 04:22 PM
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#14
11-06-2010, 10:44 AM
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__________________
Still trying to outsmart me, aren't you, mule-skinner? You want me to think that you don't want me to go down there, but the subtle truth is you really don't want me to go down there!
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#15
11-06-2010, 01:00 PM
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I'm not using SS.
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#16
11-06-2010, 01:17 PM
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#17
11-06-2010, 07:09 PM
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I caught the late double - but not exactly for that much. Chalk this years Breeders Cup up as a stalemate and put one in the tie column. Had Champ Pegasus actually won the Breeders Cup Turf - I would have been skinned alive and lost everything in a certain account. I'd be in need of the suicide hotline number at the least. I took a position placing everything against him in a market.
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#18
11-06-2010, 09:09 PM
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I'd be the guy that lays the kids college funds on a horse like Mine that Bird in the Derby.
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#19
11-06-2010, 09:11 PM
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He did open up turning for home, lol... For a split second I thought he was OK.
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#20
11-07-2010, 01:36 AM
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I will be playing her too somewhere.
Hybrid Mode
