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  #1  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:09 PM
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I wouldn't have taken SC or LAL so the post position is a bonus if you are standing against these 2. They are not the dominant favorites as were Big Brown or Smarty Jones IMO. There is great value in this race, if some horses can adjust their styles to the expected hot pace. Last year I don't think anyone of us would have expected Mine The Bird to come from dead last to win it by 6, if a horse can adjust and relax off the leaders they might be the one's, I'm not crazy about Ice Box either, just not comfortable he can repeat his Florida Derby at much lower odds.
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Old 04-28-2010, 01:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC View Post
I wouldn't have taken SC or LAL so the post position is a bonus if you are standing against these 2. They are not the dominant favorites as were Big Brown or Smarty Jones IMO. There is great value in this race, if some horses can adjust their styles to the expected hot pace. Last year I don't think anyone of us would have expected Mine The Bird to come from dead last to win it by 6, if a horse can adjust and relax off the leaders they might be the one's, I'm not crazy about Ice Box either, just not comfortable he can repeat his Florida Derby at much lower odds.
You heard it here first. 17 out of 20 horses are good bets because of "Mine The Bird."
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  #3  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:24 PM
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Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
You heard it here first. 17 out of 20 horses are good bets because of "Mine The Bird."
Or perhaps because there is no standout superior horse, if there is I haven't seen it yet.
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  #4  
Old 04-28-2010, 01:54 PM
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I have watched exactly zero prep races this year, so admittedly I have no clue, nor opinion on this years Derby. That being said, Talamo has never met a front end he didn't like, so it will be interesting to see what he does from the far outside.

Personally, I will be rooting for Ice Box. I like Zito and obviously would love to see Lezcano get a Derby win.
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  #5  
Old 04-28-2010, 02:08 PM
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I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul
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  #6  
Old 04-28-2010, 02:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pweizer View Post
I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul
I would agree if the pedigree didn't scream Green to me.
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Old 04-28-2010, 02:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pweizer View Post
I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul
agree...and could totally see Rosario bringing home a bomb. Still kicking myself for not covering him in the BC Sprint.
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  #8  
Old 04-28-2010, 02:46 PM
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If the Derby were run on turf, Make Music for Me would still probably be like 10th choice in this field.
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Old 05-01-2010, 05:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pweizer View Post
I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul
I thought about this post the whole race. Nice handicapping. That horse ran really nice.
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  #10  
Old 05-01-2010, 05:50 PM
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Sorry PETA, looks like Devil May Care made it back to the barn okay.
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  #11  
Old 04-28-2010, 02:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CSC View Post
Or perhaps because there is no standout superior horse, if there is I haven't seen it yet.
Just confirming that we'll get to hear you crow about how right you were if one of 17 horses wins. Because you're totally the first to say that there are no standouts in the field.
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  #12  
Old 04-28-2010, 03:20 PM
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Somebody has to win the frigging race. I can't bust the chops of someone taking a price, except for the fact that all the true longshots go off at underlaid odds. In this race there is always some horse that should be 150-1 that goes off at 60-1 instead. Derby betting is unique unto its own, with names and numbers get bet by once-a-year betters.
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  #13  
Old 04-28-2010, 03:22 PM
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The rest of the card is up, Churchill Down S. looks really interesting:

http://www.equibase.com/static/entry...10USA-EQB.html
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  #14  
Old 04-28-2010, 03:30 PM
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I dug a little deeper into Make Music for Me, and I'm sorry, but I don't understand. And it's weird because the poster who is mentioning this horse is one of the more astute handicappers we have around here. The horse has worked precisely once since Blue Grass day, has won precisely one race in his entire career - a listed turf stakes, and has never even sniffed beating a good horse in his life. If we're just taking stabs to take stabs because the field is more than lackluster, I understand that, but I'd love to hear someone explain how Make Music for Me warrants any consideration for Saturday. Mike Welsh on his 4/25 workout:

Make Music For Me (five furlongs in 1:02.40): There was not much to like about this move for the horse who now is first on the earnings bubble. He completed his final quarter in a lackluster 25.73 and like Dublin didn't gallop out very well, pulling up six furlongs in 1:17.79.
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  #15  
Old 04-28-2010, 03:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tector View Post
Somebody has to win the frigging race. I can't bust the chops of someone taking a price, except for the fact that all the true longshots go off at underlaid odds. In this race there is always some horse that should be 150-1 that goes off at 60-1 instead. Derby betting is unique unto its own, with names and numbers get bet by once-a-year betters.
This is true on the win end, but in exotic wagers, their odds shake-out to more appropriate levels.
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  #16  
Old 04-28-2010, 10:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
Just confirming that we'll get to hear you crow about how right you were if one of 17 horses wins. Because you're totally the first to say that there are no standouts in the field.
Nah, however I might crow if Setsuko wins the American Turf on Friday.
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