136th Kentucky Derby (PP's)

ateamstupid · #1 04-28-2010, 11:22 AM

I don't know that Sidney's Candy's draw is as problematic as Lookin at Lucky's. The 20-hole may force him to let Line of David and Conveyance go and sit off third/fourth, which was his only chance to win anyway.

tjfla · #2 04-28-2010, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't know that Sidney's Candy's draw is as problematic as Lookin at Lucky's. The 20-hole may force him to let Line of David and Conveyance go and sit off third, which was his only chance to win anyway.

They both bad!! Just saying Sidney's Candy will have trouble getting over and LAL will at least have a little space with Ice Box next to him until the ALL fall on him

cakes44 · #3 04-28-2010, 11:28 AM

Stupid question:

Are these the actual post positions or just the draw? I thought they had(used to have?) some stupid TV special for the draw at night.

MaTH716 · #4 04-28-2010, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Stupid question:

Are these the actual post positions or just the draw? I thought they had(used to have?) some stupid TV special for the draw at night.

Actual posts.

parsixfarms · #5 04-28-2010, 11:33 AM

I realize that she was green in the Bonnie Miss, but what's the reason for Pletcher putting blinkers on Devil May Care?

lemoncrush · #6 04-28-2010, 11:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by cakes44

Stupid question:

Are these the actual post positions or just the draw? I thought they had(used to have?) some stupid TV special for the draw at night.

They changed it this year. Simple, just like a normal draw.
These are the actual posts.

#7 04-28-2010, 07:48 PM

If it is sloppy I'm focusing on American Lion, Conveyance and Sidney's Candy.

ateamstupid · #8 04-28-2010, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by tjfla

They both bad!! Just saying Sidney's Candy will have trouble getting over and LAL will at least have a little space with Ice Box next to him until the ALL fall on him

I don't know what you mean by "getting over," but if you mean getting to the rail, yes, that will be near impossible. But he doesn't need to do that. He's got enough speed to get a decent position into the turn while sitting just off the lead, and like I said, that was his best shot to win anyway.

And what if Ice Box breaks inward? Assuming that LaL even gets out of the gate cleanly is assuming that nobody in the first five posts or so breaks inward.

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

I think it's an ok draw, especially for a horse that has never taken dirt before, might actually help him settle without getting splattered.

Precisely.

philcski · #9 04-28-2010, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't know that Sidney's Candy's draw is as problematic as Lookin at Lucky's. The 20-hole may force him to let Line of David and Conveyance go and sit off third/fourth, which was his only chance to win anyway.

Agreed. Just a matter of how much ground he can save going into the first turn. I think it's an ok draw, especially for a horse that has never taken dirt before, might actually help him settle without getting splattered.

MaTH716 · #10 04-28-2010, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Agreed. Just a matter of how much ground he can save going into the first turn. I think it's an ok draw, especially for a horse that has never taken dirt before, might actually help him settle without getting splattered.

Very tough spot for Talamo to make his Derby debut.

philcski · #11 04-28-2010, 11:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Very tough spot for Talamo to make his Derby debut.

Video review for him
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jBeoZUsnXdc

parsixfarms · #12 04-28-2010, 11:34 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Agreed. Just a matter of how much ground he can save going into the first turn. I think it's an ok draw, especially for a horse that has never taken dirt before, might actually help him settle without getting splattered.

Why do I see him getting the Brother Derek trip?

Antitrust32 · #13 04-28-2010, 12:57 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't know that Sidney's Candy's draw is as problematic as Lookin at Lucky's. The 20-hole may force him to let Line of David and Conveyance go and sit off third/fourth, which was his only chance to win anyway.

Yeah, I dont think 20 hurts Sidney's Candy all that much. He has enough natural speed to be okay.. he might be 5 wide but sometimes 5 wide and clear isnt the worst place to be in the derby.

LaL is screwed.

CSC · #14 04-28-2010, 01:09 PM

I wouldn't have taken SC or LAL so the post position is a bonus if you are standing against these 2. They are not the dominant favorites as were Big Brown or Smarty Jones IMO. There is great value in this race, if some horses can adjust their styles to the expected hot pace. Last year I don't think anyone of us would have expected Mine The Bird to come from dead last to win it by 6, if a horse can adjust and relax off the leaders they might be the one's, I'm not crazy about Ice Box either, just not comfortable he can repeat his Florida Derby at much lower odds.

ateamstupid · #15 04-28-2010, 01:14 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

I wouldn't have taken SC or LAL so the post position is a bonus if you are standing against these 2. They are not the dominant favorites as were Big Brown or Smarty Jones IMO. There is great value in this race, if some horses can adjust their styles to the expected hot pace. Last year I don't think anyone of us would have expected Mine The Bird to come from dead last to win it by 6, if a horse can adjust and relax off the leaders they might be the one's, I'm not crazy about Ice Box either, just not comfortable he can repeat his Florida Derby at much lower odds.

You heard it here first. 17 out of 20 horses are good bets because of "Mine The Bird."

CSC · #16 04-28-2010, 01:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

You heard it here first. 17 out of 20 horses are good bets because of "Mine The Bird."

Or perhaps because there is no standout superior horse, if there is I haven't seen it yet.

GPK · #17 04-28-2010, 01:54 PM

I have watched exactly zero prep races this year, so admittedly I have no clue, nor opinion on this years Derby. That being said, Talamo has never met a front end he didn't like, so it will be interesting to see what he does from the far outside.

Personally, I will be rooting for Ice Box. I like Zito and obviously would love to see Lezcano get a Derby win.

pweizer · #18 04-28-2010, 02:08 PM

I think Make Music for Me is a very interesting horse. I am not usre how well he has been managed but he has run with Lucky and Noble's Promise and been right there everytime. He has the right running style for the race. He is 50-1 morning line and since he wasn't supposed to make this field he hasn't generated any buzz. I think he is a very live longshot.

Paul

ateamstupid · #19 04-28-2010, 02:53 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Or perhaps because there is no standout superior horse, if there is I haven't seen it yet.

Just confirming that we'll get to hear you crow about how right you were if one of 17 horses wins. Because you're totally the first to say that there are no standouts in the field.

tector · #20 04-28-2010, 03:20 PM

Somebody has to win the frigging race. I can't bust the chops of someone taking a price, except for the fact that all the true longshots go off at underlaid odds. In this race there is always some horse that should be 150-1 that goes off at 60-1 instead. Derby betting is unique unto its own, with names and numbers get bet by once-a-year betters.