136th Kentucky Oaks (PP's)

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I've been trying to handicap this race in earnest and I'm having a very difficult time liking anyone except Blind Luck.

Quiet Temper ran a good race in the Silverbulletday but had a dream trip in the FG Oaks and barely got by the stretching out Champagne d'Oro. I can't see her moving forward enough to win a race like this. Champagne d'Oro is a decent horse but she's going to have to go with Tidal Pool early and that should cook both.

I don't want any part of Evening Jewel, who got away with murder in the Ashland and also got the best of it in the Las Virgenes and still lost. I wouldn't bet Crisp with someone else's money as she got the perfect setup in the SA Oaks and barely legged it out over All Due Respect.

It's Tea Time moving forward on dirt seems unlikely even though I think she ran the best race of anyone in the Ashland. Her full brother Home Fries recently earned his 11th consecutive loss in a maiden claimer at Keeneland and his lone dirt race at CD last year was far from inspiring. I think she could be an Oaks filly but it is more likely to be the American than the Kentucky.

Amen Hallelujah might have distance limitations but stands to get the right kind of trip if she can sit behind the pace and get the jump. N1X eligible Beautician has been mishandled and elicits no confidence from me. It's a mighty big leap of faith to expect Ailalea to somehow be right in this spot as she's been positively dreadful in both of her starts this year.

I could see Seeking the Title as moderately interesting but she's on the outside looking in at the moment.

NT

I don't see how Tidal Pool is going to get "hooked" and "cooked" early. Tidal Pool is a very handy filly from her PPs who can really be readily placed wherever in the field, and be a threat. She can come from off it, stalk from close range, or take the initiative, and she'll have the services of Borel which is a big time positive. No other filly in this race is in the same stratosphere as Blind Luck or Tidal Pool in terms of ability and speed figures.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by JerseyJ

I don't see how Tidal Pool is going to get "hooked" and "cooked" early. Tidal Pool is a very handy filly from her PPs who can really be readily placed wherever in the field, and be a threat. She can come from off it, stalk from close range, or take the initiative, and she'll have the services of Borel which is a big time positive. No other filly in this race is in the same stratosphere as Blind Luck or Tidal Pool in terms of ability and speed figures.

I hear you. At the same time, she has never won a race where she didnt have the lead by the 2nd call. When has she shown the ability to come from off the pace?

[JerseyJ]

Originally Posted by dalakhani

I hear you. At the same time, she has never won a race where she didnt have the lead by the 2nd call. When has she shown the ability to come from off the pace?

I am not even looking for Tidal Pool to win...it's going to be about pressing the Blind Luck-Tidal Pool straight exacta big time here. No other filly can run as fast as either one of those. Tidal Pool ran pretty good at the FG when coming from way back, albiet she got ran down by Jody Slew, but it's quite clear Tidal Pool has moved forward off that effort and improved whereas Jody Slew has not gotten any better. I expect Tidal Pool to get a perfect trip here on the rail just off the pace, make her run and get run down by Blind Luck in the last 1/8th of a mile.