DOWNS DAWN PATROL (4/21): Lookin at Lucky sparkles..

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Come on, Nick. This horse have never won a race in which it didn't get a better trip than the winner. This is your quintessential opportunistic runner. The problem, of course, is that he's just not good enough to run the most and win. Hell, he couldn't win even if he ran in a race where he got an equal trip to the other contenders. He's got 3 wins in matchups with Noble's Promise and the latter got the worst of it all 3 times. He runs well in the Derby if a handful of other horses don't fire or get bad trips. This PLUG is a toss for me.

Never won when he didn't get a better trip than the winner...from the department of redundancy department.....
That Rebel was a great trip, well, after clipping heels with the horse in front and almost going down and all.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Never won when he didn't get a better trip than the winner...from the department of redundancy department.....
That Rebel was a great trip, well, after clipping heels with the horse in front and almost going down and all.

I know this is going to come up numerous times between now and the Derby but how much do you really think that cost him in that race? It is one thing that the horse stayed up and all but literally he lost very, very little ground. He was then able to take advantage of Noble's Promise and Dublin making premature moves to basically collapse the race and that's what TFM is getting at (I think).

As far as the SA Derby his trouble was obviously enough to end his chances of winning but I'm very confident that he was not going to catch Sidney's Candy even if he stayed free of trouble.

NT

[Thunder Gulch]

Agree he wasn't going to catch Candy who was gone behind the soft pace. I also don't think he was primed for either race. To me the biggest positive that can be gleaned from these efforts is the horse's toughness and competitiveness. A lot of top horses would mail it in under similar circumstances...so on paper you have a horse who's top dirt figure compares to all but one, you know he has the right style, trainer, and competitiveness for this kind of race. In a race where trouble is the norm, those things count for a lot.

[slotdirt]

I say this with all due respect, but this is the first time I've ever heard someone say that clipping heels is basically no big deal in the context of lost momentum.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I say this with all due respect, but this is the first time I've ever heard someone say that clipping heels is basically no big deal in the context of lost momentum.

Every time it happens it's different but the amount that Gomez had to compensate for the actual occurrence was minimal, he did a great job and the horse is athletic. The difference between his heel clipping in the Rebel and when he was shut off in the SA Derby is gigantic.

NT

[Thunder Gulch]

His loss of ground in the Rebel wasn't huge as you say, but it appeared he did have momentum and was unwinding to go by others when it happened. Actual loss maybe a length or two, but that's not the real story. Just my opinion.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I say this with all due respect, but this is the first time I've ever heard someone say that clipping heels is basically no big deal in the context of lost momentum.

Here's what I suggest. Seriously. Get a track bike and head over to your local park or velodrome. Hook up with a peloton and position yourself behind and between a pack of cyclists. Note how much easier your trip is when you're drafting as opposed to when you're going without cover. Sooner or later you'll get cut off, be forced to 'check'. If you're behind/between, and it's during a 'break', you'll be surprised how it doesn't really matter, as you're:

1) still being carried along by the draft
2) able to make up whatever difference was lost easily, as those breaking before you have only a finite amount of energy and they've used it before you.

In fact, 'checking' is an ADVANTAGE in these cases.

If you're outside and not drafting, and you're dropped because you're forced to check, it's a lot harder to make up. Of course, it really depends on how intense the 'break' was. If they went too hard, you still have an advantage -- especially if the 'race' collapses and favors late runners.

If you're going to remark that cycling is not horse racing, I will point you to Mr Dominguez and how he rides them like track bikes.

P.S. The reason this isn't obvious is because of the BIAS on dirt tracks. DIRT goes against PHYSICS.

[herkhorse]

dirt goes against physics?

[AeWingnut]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Never won when he didn't get a better trip than the winner...from the department of redundancy department.....
That Rebel was a great trip, well, after clipping heels with the horse in front and almost going down and all.

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